Can state GOP avoid an October shutout?

The Advocate Opinion ^ | 3/25/03 | Lanny Keller

[LdSentinal]

The Louisiana Republican Party owes its existence to the open primary system devised by then-Gov. Edwin W. Edwards. But since making it to the big time in state politics, the GOP is now stuck with the downsides of the open primary.

The Republican Party has seven more or less formally announced candidates, and former Gov. David C. Treen -- who is seeking a return to public life at age 74 -- is the only one showing any real standing in public opinion polls. Most of the leading Democratic candidates have vast experience running statewide compared to the legislators and others who are in the GOP field.

Is there a real possibility that the Republicans would so split up the vote in the Oct. 4 primary that there would be two Democrats on the Nov. 15 ballot?

The closed primary system, which Louisiana employed in elections until 1975, rewards each party with a guaranteed runoff spot. The open primary rewards candidates, not necessarily parties, with an organization and a message.

The most dramatic example of that phenomenon was in 1987, when then-Congressman Buddy Roemer of Bossier City came out of the field and won a runoff spot against Edwards. The incumbent dropped out of the runoff and Roemer was elected.

The two-Democrats scenario hasn't occurred since, but the party came close in the 1996 race for U.S. Senate. Democrat Mary Landrieu narrowly won that runoff for the Democrats, but Ieyoub almost won the second spot; only a last-minute rally of Republicans around then-state Rep. Woody Jenkins propelled Jenkins into a runoff slot.

The Republican Party has grown and has held the governor's office for the last two terms, but it is far from clear if there is the capacity in the party leadership to settle on a candidate anytime soon. Some members of the GOP State Central Committee want a mini-primary of GOP voters by computer ballot to endorse a candidate, but that's unlikely to happen.

More likely is what U.S. Rep. David Vitter, R-Metairie, called a "winnowing" process among Republican candidates over the next few months.

Candidates who can't raise a lot of money, or who fail to demonstrate any broad support among activists who constitute the party faithful, may find it difficult to sustain their campaigns into the fall.

It is impossible to say who's on the realistic roster and who isn't, and it's certainly too early to say which candidates will have something to say that will excite voters. But one early barometer is the support of major party players -- including the politically influential congressmen who can also help contenders raise money.

State Rep. Hunt Downer, R-Houma, is a relatively new Republican; he was chairman of Democrats for Bush in 2000 before switching parties. But he has the support of an old personal friend, U.S. Rep. Billy Tauzin, R-Chackbay, who was a Democrat and floor leader for Edwards in the Legislature.

The most successful harvester of big-name supporters is the youngest Republican in the field, former Bush administration official Bobby Jindal of Baton Rouge.

At a "homecoming" for Jindal when he returned to Louisiana to run, not only Gov. Mike Foster but one of Foster's most prominent GOP critics, state Rep. Tony Perkins, R-Pride, were among the Jindal boosters. Perkins and others in the "religious right" of the party are one part of the GOP base, but more traditional GOP conservatives were represented in Foster and former U.S. Rep. Bob Livingston, who represented the New Orleans area for years and is an influential lobbyist.

Add to that the key members of the campaign organization of U.S. Rep. Jim McCrery, R-Shreveport -- he is perhaps the most underestimated political operator in the state -- and Jindal's campaign is particularly well-launched.

And, Republicans may recall, in 1996 it was Livingston's endorsement that made Jenkins a runoff contender.

[Bogey78O]

Well Jindal seems to pull in a lot of backers.

Who does Moon support?

[Jack Black]

Legally mandated open primaries are obviously unconstitutional. If the "R" party doesn't like it they should go to court to defeat it. They may have to stop having the State pay for what are (or should be) essentially private elections. But that would be good, and show the "R's" actually living up to their ideals. If the State keeps insisting they should draft new rules and nominate people by vote of county committe chairpersons or something. It's not up to the state how private organizations choose to select leaders.