[RaiderRose]

I heard a member of the military on
Rush Limbaugh today (didn't get the
guy's name) say that we can expect
70-to-90 percent casualties if we are
forced into urban warfare. "Casualties"
of course including wounded and dead.

I don't know if the general public
will stay behind this war if that happens.
I sure hope it doesn't happen, and I sure hope
that if it does, we do not make those
lives be lost for nothing by pulling out
(re: Somalia).

Anyone know if this 70-90 percent is
about the right number, or was this guy
way way off??

[MEG33]

Punditry will drive you mad.

[x1stcav]

Lots of examples of urban warfare in WWII and Vietnam (Hue '68). Pretty dirty fighting and nowhere near these levels of casualties.

Most units are combat ineffective when they've taken 25-35%.

[AAABEST]

Anyone know if this 70-90 percent is about the right number, or was this guy way way off??

Rule of war #1 - Never try to predict a damn thing. Be ready for anything, anytime.

[grb]

Another guy, (armed forces retired - desert storm) came on and said this guy's numbers were total nonsense.

[vpintheak]

I believe the guy was in the armed forces, and was basing it on military exercises. Which when training in urban cicumstances, it is not uncommon for a platoon in defense to be able to inflict that much damage on a battalion on offense. Urban warfare, by defenders that know what they are doing is a scary thing.

[SuziQ]

Anyone know if this 70-90 percent is about the right number, or was this guy way way off??

Doesn't sound right to me. I think is was someone scaremongering.

I noticed several media folks talking about the Pew poll that was taken after that particularly brutal day we had. The 'american people' were pessimistic about the outcome of the war. Should anyone be surprised at those poll results? The 24 hour cable cycle had been beating those negative stories for the entire day! Of course folks would be wary after a day like that. What we have to do is look at the whole, not just the parts.

Everyone is making the assumption that our boys are not trained for urban warfare. On the contrary, since the debacle in Mogadishu, they've been training hard for that possibility.