Focus on 'Battle of Basra' Misses Key Points

STRATFOR ^ | Mar 22, 2003 | Staff

[Axion]

Focus on 'Battle of Basra' Misses Key Points

Mar 22, 2003

Summary

The Western media appear to be transfixed by the "Battle of Basra." Iraq's future will not be decided at Iraq's southern city, but to the northwest -- where major coalition military assets have crossed the Euphrates and are charging toward Baghdad.

Analysis

Western media are obsessing about the "Battle of Basra," where a substantial number of U.S. and British military assets have encircled the city and are methodically combing through the approaches to it to limit the capacity of any Iraqi units still in Basra from functioning.

The media focus is misplaced.

Basra, though the largest city in southern Iraq and a transit point for the nation's oil, is of no military significance in the current campaign. Even before sundown in Iraq on March 22, U.S. forces had sealed the city off from the rest of the country. Iraqi forces in Basra cannot break out or affect the wider war effort in any way. The city is hard up against river, marshes and Iran -- making it a stop on the road to nowhere, from a military perspective. Journalists embedded with coalition forces, however, do not seem to be aware of this and continue to file reports based on what is available to them.

Meanwhile, 200 kilometers up the Euphrates, there has been a media blackout. CENTCOM officials announced March 22 that the 3rd Infantry, 7th Cavalry and a brigade from the 101st Airbone had captured the city of an Nasiriyah and the Tallil airbase just to the south. It is from this region that the advance will cross the Euphrates and progress north-northwest to Baghdad.

The last news to trickle out from that location reached Stratfor's intel network at 6 p.m. Baghdad time (1500 GMT, 10 a.m. EST). The blackout is so complete that even the irrepressible Ted Koppel, embedded with the 3rd Infantry, hasn't made a so much as a peep.

But an Nasiriyah is critically important, since its bridges command access to the Iraqi interior and the roads to Baghdad.

The Pentagon itself broke the blackout in a press briefing at 4:30 p.m. EST (2130 GMT, 12:30 a.m. Baghdad time) by noting that coalition forces had moved 150 miles into Iraq, well past an Nasiriyah and the Euphrates. Media questions immediately switched to the whereabouts of several journalists missing near Basra.

Blackouts of this type are not uncommon. In the 1991 Gulf War, the famed "left hook" that shattered Iraq's military backbone was such an operation. Reporters assigned to such surprises are told when and where they can make reports, as well as when to remain tight-lipped. But when the story happens, they are in the heart of the action.

Even with the Pentagon's admissions, a great many questions linger. Did the 3rd Infantry Division take the 7th Cavalry with it? Or did the 7th proceed on its own further west to pincer Iraqi forces at Karbala? Is the 101st Airborne Division setting up shop for its Apaches at the Tallil airbase to support a massive thrust of the 101st, 7th and 3rd forces combined? Can the logistics in place support these options?

Despite these questions, the Pentagon disclosure -- unaccompanied so far by press filings -- indicates two things. First, coalition commanders feel secure enough in the situation in an Nasiriyah to risk a strong push into the heart of Iraq. And second, the press blackout with the 3rd, 7th and 101st is still in effect, meaning that whatever action coalition forces have planned could come as a nasty surprise to the Iraqi military.

It looks as if Mr. Koppel has drawn the long straw, and the executives at ABC are about to have a very good story.

[finnman69]

I dont think those B-52s are going to Baghdad.....

[RightWhale]

Stratfor is making sense today. They have probably been keeping up with FR.

[over3Owithabrain]

Basra may be important in one sense - finding evidence of chemical or other WMD's.
The sooner we start displaying that kind of stuff for the world to see, the better things are politically.

[AFPhys]

Uhhh, Basra is important... coalition has yet to take it, I think that is telling... they are taking it so slowly... It's a legit question that should not be minimized.

BS

BTW - which War College did you graduate from?

[AFPhys]

...finding evidence of chemical or other WMD's.

The sooner we start displaying that kind of stuff for the world...

I could be wrong, but I predict that it will be some time before we are able to display Chem and Bio weaponry. We are going to have to locate weapons scientists and technicians so they can tell us where they are hidden, and then we will have to carefully investigate the area. In fact, we may have a certain amount of excavation to do in order to reach the goodies, if our intel has accurately pinpointed bomb targets.

[Travis McGee]

You are dead wrong, and very naive. Basra IS an island today, for all intents and purposes. An Iraqi military unit can no more break out of it and threaten coalition forces elsewhere than Japanese could swim from island to island.

Remember the "Highway of Death?"

[stainlessbanner]

some reporter kept harping about....

I think Gen. Franks, in his press release yesterday, shut down alot of these reporters who think they are smarter than our top military analysts. I am growing weary of those "white-polo" reporters who assume they know military affairs.

[SengirV]

BTW - which War College did you graduate from?

Looks like I am more correct than you could have imagined. With NEW attacks coming in towns that we have "Liberated", and free roaming groups of hostiles, it appears that the island hop is NOT going to work here. A couple of mechs take a wrong tern and they meet Iraqi forces that have been "hopped" over. I'd like for you to be the one to tell their families "We blew past those hostiles so we can break Patton's record. Sorry about your dead family member, but we set a record."

I'm not down on the military or anything like that. But it appears that the soldiers in control take your(plural intended for all those bashing my post) position on allowing hostiles free in the rear. I think that is a bad idea. It makes me wonder if the soldier's welfare is more important or the stock markets(better have this wrapped up in under a week)