IF SADDAM ALIVE, WAR IS FAR FROM OVER

Thought | 22 March 2003 | Mene Mene Tekel Upharsin

[MeneMeneTekelUpharsin]

Saddam was targeted. Saddam may be dead. However, unless his death and that of his sons is confirmed, a grave danger still faces U.S., British and allied forces. Saddam, from reports now coming out, obviously has been running a cult-like operation.

Like all murderous cults before, the leader of this one probably has in mind a last-ditch suicide scenario that takes out not only the enemy but his/her own followers as well. The hope is that intelligence is SURE that no major nuclear weapon exists that could be detonated over Baghdad. If such happens, we are in big trouble. If such a weapon were used when large numbers of U.S./British, etc. troops are in or near the city, the losses would be devastating. The political ramifications and ensuing world conflict would be worse. All Muslim nations would explode in rage as propagandists would immediately claim that the U.S. did it. North Korea's Kim Jong Il would come unglued assuming we were going to nuke him. China would destabilize immediately thereafter as would what is left of Russia.

Before you start flaming...the above HAS to be considered and I'm sure it is already. It is imperative that we find and kill Saddam Hussein and his sons as quickly as possible. Those who don't support us in this war have not realized who they are dealing with. If Saddam were to have been allowed to continue on the path he was heading, he would have most certainly attacked his neighbors, developed nuclear capability beyond the use specified above, and would have been a clear and present danger to world stability.

[MeneMeneTekelUpharsin]

No further comment.

[Joe 6-pack]

Send in Reno and the ATF...On second thought, let the Military handle it. Far less collataral damage.

[Mears]

I posted before the war started that I doubted that this was going to be quick and easy and I still feel that way.

Is anyone else as sick of the phrase "shock and awe" as I am? It sounds like something a P.R. firm would think up.

We should pray for this to end as soon as possible and support our troops in every way that we can.

[MeneMeneTekelUpharsin]

Send in Reno and the ATF...On second thought, let the Military handle it. Far less collateral damage.

LOL. How true!

[Violette]

We may never be able to confirm the deaths of Saddam or Osama Bin Laden. By not leaving behind any remains that can be confirmed, closure is not received. A clear victory is removed from the enemy if solid evidence of death is never acheived. So, the enemy is left to wonder if they succeeded and their followers are left with the hope that their leader still lives.

[Dr.Deth]

"The day the Muslim world acquires a nuclear weapon is the day they use it on Tel Aviv."

They don't have one.

[Elle Bee]

Saddam is dead

.

[duk]

I have been telling my friends the same thing!! But, don't blame the U.S. blame Isreal!!!!! Then watch as Egypt, Syria, and Iran come unglued.

[RS]

Not really sure what this post is trying to convey -
"The hope is that intelligence is SURE that no major nuclear weapon exists that could be detonated over Baghdad. Whose hope ?
This supposes that you are second guessing our intelligence and that they would do something differently if they weren't sure, or for that matter if they were sure that such a thing existed.

As I hope you realize ( I can't be sure ) there is no such thing as being SURE.

[Sender]

I'm convinced that Saddam doesn't have a nuke, but of course I don't know anything. I'm also convinced that Saddam DOES indeed have vast, vast quantities of VX, mustard gas and various nasty germs stored beneath the streets of Baghdad and in the dunes around Tikrit and elsewhere.

I keep thinking to myself, that is if Saddam is even still alive, what will he do when the end comes? To use WMD now would eliminate any doubt as to his innocence and bring world condemnation (except of course for Hans Blix, who would say that he is showing increased cooperation). So he would probably save any use of WMD for a last resort. However tough Baghdad may prove to be, the end will come for Saddam and his buddies just as sure as the sun rises in the East.

So when the end comes, what will Saddam or his buddies do? They will realize that after they're dead, we'll find all the nasty illegal weapons after all and parade them endlessly in front of world TV and the UN. There will be no doubt whatsoever as to Saddam's arsenal. So what'cha gonna do?

I keep coming back to the same conclusion: you use those WMD at the end, as one final 'F you' to the West, taking as many of us and as many of his own innocent citizens with him as possible. Considering that scenario, I certainly hope that he doesn't have access to a nuke. But what he does have might be nearly as bad...at least for life forms without proper protection.

[RS]

"I don't know if most of you know this, but each "batch" of plutonium (or uranium) has it's own "signature" consisting of the unique proportions of differing isotopes."

So our experts say it's not ours and the other experts say it's not theirs...

[duk]

As far as determing the signature of the weapon, exactly who will do the test and can it be trusted.

[shattered]

While I agree that this scenario needs to be considered, I do believe that the powers that be know much, much more than what they are saying.

Personally, I think that if SH were still capable, he would have done something militarily by now. Last nights speech by the information minister, a lowly position (per fox), points to the fact that possibly there are no upper management available to speak for Iraq.

Hopefully, we will know more about SH and his son's positions soon.

[MeneMeneTekelUpharsin]

Last nights speech by the information minister, a lowly position (per fox), points to the fact that possibly there are no upper management available to speak for Iraq.

Or may well indicated they're not sending anyone high up out to be tracked back ... again.

[Boundless]

> ... if SH were still capable, he would have done
> something militarily by now.

Events so far are most consistent with:
* Saddam & the boys out of the picture
* Nobody knows where they are

> Last nights speech by the information minister,

Isn't this guy on the list of the 50 we intend to prosecute?
If so, his only hope is that Saddam is still alive, and Iraq
can rope-a-dope until "somebody" persuades the Coalition
to stop the war, leaving Saddam in power. The disinfo Min
can't defect, and has to stay on script.

> ... a lowly position (per fox), points to the fact that
> possibly there are no upper management available to speak
> for Iraq.

More evidence of Saddam MIA (possibly dead, comatose, or
trapped in a bunker with no comm).

Back to the original paranoia. If the is one or more Iraqi
nukes, Saddam probably controls key elements of the process
of using it. If Saddam is MIA, the weapon may be unfireable.

[AlaskaErik]

China would destabilize immediately thereafter....

I vehemently disagree with this statement. The Chinese leadership is firmly in control and has no organized opposition. But they would certainly take notice and reevaluate their stance towards the DPRK.

[duk]

Don't count Iran out of the equation. They are number 2 or 3 on the list. Iran is almost totaly surrounded by American forces. Information has been released indicating that Iran has an advanced nuclear program. Much to lose and gain!

Russia has interests in Iraq/Iran which makes one wonder if one or both nations have received "help" from their friends up north.

The middle east is very complex. Don't assume Saddam is dead or is without the means to go ballistic.

[MeneMeneTekelUpharsin]

The middle east is very complex. Don't assume Saddam is dead or is without the means to go ballistic.

As an answer to this post and the one right before it: Yes, you are correct. I meant that China would destabilize in that it would become a threat, not that it would have internal problems. Bad choice of words on my part.

[ricpic]

Rest assured, the powers that be in Russia, China, Iran, have been watching the stupendous show of American firepower, and are VERY impressed. No one wants to take on the US at this point. And that will hold true even if the rest of the war doesn't go "perfectly."