Saddam, sons likely alive

American intelligence officials have concluded that Saddam Hussein and his two murderous sons likely survived the attack on his bunker and that the bumbling old man who appeared on TV really was the feared Iraqi dictator.

Officials said the speaker's voice and mannerisms were consistent with Saddam, who has been known to rely on body doubles.

What they weren't certain about was whether the video was prerecorded. The speaker mentioned the date of the attack, March 20, but officials said he could have prerecorded a series of videos.

Government officials are convinced that Saddam and both of his sons, Uday and Qusay Hussein, were inside at the time of the attack. Together, the three men are the country's most wanted war criminals.

Uday Hussein, 38, is a sadistic megalomaniac who kills on a whim. Qusay Hussein, 37, is a ruthless schemer who brutalized his way into power.

Though he is the younger brother, Qusay Hussein is the most powerful man in Iraq after Saddam. He oversees the country's military and its brutal secret police.

In 1991, he ordered the country's Shiite enclave, Saddam City, shelled to quell a revolt.

"He rounded up hundreds and hundreds and herded them into warehouses," one defector told Vanity Fair magazine. "The prisoners were stripped naked: men, women, children all together. They were shot on the spot if they were not cooperating."

Uday Hussein, notorious for raping virgins, competes for his father's attention. In 2000, he ordered four alleged traitors executed.

"They were hogtied, carried in like sheep," a defector said. "They pulled out his tongue with a fork and cut it off with shears. Then all four were beheaded with a sword."

The last time one of the defectors was with the brothers, they discussed life without Saddam.

"If anything goes wrong, I'll have my money," Uday Hussein said. "I will buy an island, be king on my island."

But Qusay Hussein was more realistic. "If Saddam goes," he said, "nothing will save either one of us."

I think they are all dead. But I also think that the intelligence community wants to keep the situation confused. If the Iraqi generals are convinced that Saddam is dead, they may try for a military coup before we get in. If they are unsure, they won't attempt to do anything for fear that if Saddam is alive, he will kill them for attempting to usurp some power.

Thus the best thing right now is to keep the confusion going until the ground troops are knocking at the gate. Which should be Monday morning, unless taking care of all the surrendering Iraqis slows em down.

A deep-penetrator could have, but it's underground radius of effect is far too large.

Well-timed successive hits by Tomahawks or JDAMs are necessary, so that each following explosion bores in deeper.

The first explosion is a nut-cracker, the next then fractures the nut or maybe the third fractures the nut (which is why you use 3, to this point in the process) ... then the effects of the remaining explosions are what do the necessary pulverizing.

During World War II, we dropped "block busters" on the NAZI submarine pens along the French coast, but never halted operations because of such bombardment, because we did not follow on with successive hits on the exact target. The pens had a concrete construction intended to absorb the blast. And that, was above ground.

Saddam Hussein & Co. have built his fortresses with such knowledge of bomb blast effects. They know, that only 30 meters away, a 2,000 lb warhead may explode, but by construction which absorbs bomb blast, the room they are in will survive.

Underground bunkers have built-in bomb blast venting; the pressure waves naturally take the path of least resistance and are easily directed out of the subterrain.

This does not mean that the effects are not felt, but that destruction is limited unless successive explosions follow upon the target.

Yesterday, we saw a lot of above ground destruction. You would be amazed how little an effect there was underground. Saddam's above ground construction is also designed to absorb and divert bomb blast energy.

The Tomahawk is not good for hitting bunkers at all. You could alter the flight path, so that it climbs to sufficient altitude, and then drops, but that significantly makes it a target, so you would have to use many, perhaps a dozen to get the job done, which 4 or 5 JDAM's could do.

And you know what? Talking about this makes me real nervous. It is very unpleasant, this business. I do not enjoy it. It is not a game. It is not sport.

I pray that there are no more half-measures which the "higher-ups" dream up, because half-measures will only increase and prolong the agony for the Iraqis and all the rest of us.

Unconditional surrender of Saddam's regime is required and nothing less. A.S.A.P.

God Bless everyone.

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