Intermittent Attacks Reportedly Aimed At Provoking Coup

STRATFOR ^ | Mar 20, 2003

[Axion]

Intermittent Attacks Reportedly Aimed At Provoking Coup
Mar 20, 2003

2358 GMT - Stratfor sources at the Pentagon say that the current intermittent attacks against Iraq are designed to provoke a much-desired coup, flush out Iraqi command personnel and give covert forces on the ground an opportunity to strike.

[Thane_Banquo]

I have a feeling it won't work. But it's worth a shot. We have plenty of time. We can delay the bombing a day or so.

[ambrose]

Definitely worth a shot.... we'd be much better off if the Iraqis do their own regime change...

[Thane_Banquo]

I'm sure if it works Mr. Daschle will be "deeply saddened." Deeply saddened that he will not have the propaganda opportunity of civilian or US military casualties to blame on Bush.

[mikegi]

This is definitely the weirdest damn war I've ever seen. Only thing I can think of is that our CIA is running the show. There must be a bunch of Swiss Bank account numbers in the hands of Iraqi commanders. Our message: "Surrender and we'll deposit $1,000,000 in your account".

[CarmelValleyite]

I agree -- not that I care if WE do the work for them or not, but it would be nice from a world opinion standpoint if the Iraqis handled their OWN regime change.

[Jim Noble]

I also suspect the road to Baghdad is being opened by negotiation, and when we go, we'll go very fast.

[vigilante2]

Maybe the US should publicly anounce to the Iraqis that there commander in chief has been over thrown and maybe it will start a chain reaction..or flush husseni out of hiding one or the other

[Jim Noble]

>> Only thing I can think of is that our CIA is running the show. There must be a bunch of Swiss Bank account numbers in the hands of Iraqi commanders. Our message: "Surrender and we'll deposit $1,000,000 in your account". <<

No, the message is, "Surrender, and we'll ship the daisycutter with your name on it to Korea".

[Amerigomag]

Hope it works because nobody, neither the statesman, nor the politicians nor the military wants to engage in street fights in Baghdad.

[Mr.Clark]

I just have a feeling that we, the general public, know about 10% of whats really going on. I mean, we have ground units flying north, but the news agencies don't know where they heck they are. We have these strange isolated air attacks all around the country, with intriguing ones happening in Baghdad. On top of that, we still have little idea what the heck happened last night. This war is probably the biggest press event ever, but we know so little about what is actually going on. I hope that's a good thing, it probably is.

[Ruger1099]

Just saw on NBC that Republican Guard leaders in Baghdad may be in secret surrender talks with the U.S.. Maybe that's why we haven't seen the shock and awe campaign yet.

[ErnBatavia]

designed to provoke a much-desired coup

I think it will....having nothing better to do today, I've watched the televised reports all day, and decided (since even the Pentagon admits we ARE in contact with leadership of the Republican Guard) - that these slow actions are building trust.

By this, I'm guessing that these Iraqis are being told by their coalition "handlers" to watch for, say, a 0315 bombardment to last for 17 minutes. When that happens on schedule, perhaps some trust is developed.

Wrapping it up, these guys may just get told that they will have a two hour window of opportunity (next cruise missle barrage) to head EAST, because the WEST side of town is being hit. From there, they are to lay down arms and await further orders.

Neat, huh??

[Wavyhill]

If I looked like Daschle and had 1 mm gonads like Daschle, I'd be deeply saddened too.

[ErnBatavia]

See my 13 above...this has been pretty well known for hours now. There is some strategery cooking here, I think.

[Jim Noble]

In the practical art of war, the best thing of all is to take the enemy's country whole and intact; to shatter and destroy it is not so good. So, too, it is better to recapture an army entire than to destroy it, to capture a regiment, a detachment or a company entire than to destroy them.

Hence to fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting- Sun Tzu, The Art of War-Chapter III, Attack By Strategem

[oceanview]

It might work for a while, like peeling back an onion with Baghdad at the center. But I think we are trying to avoid "cornering" Saddam. Remember he has WMDs, don't get a false sense of security based on what is happening here in the early stages with the conscripts on the front lines. A coup, exile, or "witness protection" for Saddam. We stage his "death", he appears to die a martyr at the hands of the americans, and we get him out of the country for some plastic surgery. Nobody gets anthraxed, oil prices come down, Bush gets re-elected.

[meenie]

The coverage on Fox has been outstanding. From Bartuscaloni(?) I have learned that the artillery fire goes up and it comes down. What a revelation! From Colonel(Donald Duck)Hunt it was learned that we had to get into Iraq before we could call it an invasion. Amazing! We were warned that the shock and awe campaign would be on when we saw it.

Later, it has been learned that the shock and awe will be unecessary because regional Republican Guard leaders are thinking of surrendering. The new tactic has been designated shuck and jive. Being an old artilleryman, I can't help but get a kick out of the analysis on TV.

[ItisaReligionofPeace]

I have a feeling it will work. They will be at each other's throats.

[ItisaReligionofPeace]

I bet "Surrender and we won't kill you" is more effective than $1,000,000, especially when they know we are dead serious.