All I can say is that I disagree and think he very well may have done so. In his mind he may have considered it a clever trick, and he may have intended to play the tape after the first attack no matter what.
Remember that if he has any intelligence he wouldn't have wanted to go on live TV to speak after the first shots. He would/could have been afraid that we'd track him that way. This way he stays underground (if he's still alive). There are very solid reasons for recording and playing such a tape even if you're *not* killed in the first attack. Also, Saddam didn't "admit defeat", if I'm not mistaken he called for jihad bla bla bla.
I did not mean to imply he admitted defeat on the tape. I just meant that for him to plan for post-death tapes would imply he admitted that he could die. This guy seems like he thinks he is immortal.
However, your points are valid. We are all just trying to play chess without ever seeing the board. One's speculation is as good as another.