Posted on 03/16/2003 7:44:55 PM PST by areafiftyone
Labour rebels claimed yesterday that up to 160 backbenchers will vote against Tony Blair if Britain launches an attack without a fresh UN security council resolution.
Amid a growing belief that Robin Cook is planning to resign from the cabinet, a leading rebel predicted that the 122 Labour MPs who voted against the government last month would be joined by a further 40. MPs are expected to vote on Iraq, possibly as early as tomorrow, after the failure of Britain to secure a second resolution.
Tony Lloyd, a former Foreign Office minister, told Radio 4's The World This Weekend: "I would think certainly the ballpark [is] another 30 or 40 people. I would be surprised if there are not some resignations [from the government]."
His prediction came as Charles Kennedy, speaking to the Liberal Democrat spring conference in Torquay, accused Mr Blair of betraying his Labour party legacy by appearing to abandon the UN route in his preparations for war.
As the prime minister flew to the Azores for his emergency summit, the Lib Dem leader attacked him for attending a "council of despair" at which the participants had abandoned all hope of a peaceful outcome.
A rebellion by as many as 160 Labour MPs would inflict severe damage on the prime minister, who would have lost the confidence of more than half of his backbenchers over Iraq. But he would still command a majority of the 410 frontbench and backbench Labour MPs.
Hilary Armstrong, the chief whip, is understood to have told the prime minister she can secure a majority of the parliamentary party. This means he would not face the humiliation of having to rely on the Tories to secure a majority to supportmilitary action.
The scale of Labour opposition was underlined yesterday by a BBC poll. In a survey of 264 backbenchers for BBC1's Politics Show, to which 129 replied, 95 MPs said they were against a war without a second resolution.
But some rebels are reluctant to predict how many MPs will defy a three-line whip because they believe the atmosphere in the parliamentary party has swung in the prime minister's favour in the past week. An attempt by hard-left MPs in the Bennite Campaign group to challenge Mr Blair's leadership upset some of last month's rebels, who do not want the party to return to the civil war of the 1980s.
The outburst by the international development secretary, Clare Short, in which she accused the prime minister of acting in a reckless manner, was another factor in the prime minister's favour.
The foreign secretary, Jack Straw, one of seven cabinet ministers to hit the airwaves yesterday, said talks with party members and the public in his constituency of Blackburn had convinced him that opinion had shifted towards the government compared with similar talks two weeks ago.
Mr Kennedy's attack on the prime minister came as Iain Duncan Smith made clear that he would support any military attack on Iraq. Speaking to the Tory spring conference in Harrogate, he said: "Britain's security is at stake. That's why I've backed those who are ready to take on that tyrant Saddam Hussein."
And if ain't right, say it twice.
"Britain's security is at stake. That's why I've backed those who are ready to take on that tyrant Saddam Hussein." Duncan Smith, Conservative Party Leader
I hear you. What I don't know about the British parliment system could fill a book.
Ivan, can you help us here? Can Tony lose his job over this? And if so, how much time would he have?
Will it help when the women and children in Baghdad are dancing in the streets and hugging American and British soldiers?
Watch the Prime Ministers Questions on CSpan. The front benchers sit in front of a rail and generally "answer" questions. The backbenchers literally sit on benches in the back, behind the rail, and seem to fire question at those inside the rail, the frontbenchers.
It seems to be the leadership and the rank and file.
Perhaps from this context we can figure out something:
These committees meet regularly to discuss particular areas of policy and are considered to play an important role in keeping party leaderships informed of backbench opinion.
Both Labour and the Conservatives also have a number of regional backbench committees at which MPs from a particular area get together to discuss issues relevant to their region.
Historically, a famous and powerful backbench committee has been the Conservative Party's 1922 Committee, of which all Conservative backbenchers are members.
Labour's backbench committees are known as departmental groups and regional groups.
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I am guessing the backbenchers are the Members of Parliament who do not have any leadership positions!
I think that's why PM Blair looked so cheery during Prime Minister's Minutes last week. He was thinking, "Just a few more weeks you worthless Stalinist sods and I'll be rid of you once and for all." Of course, they'll all secure sinecures at the heart of darkness in the EU bureaucracy in Brussels or become, gasp, MEP's!!
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