BioTerrorism Analysis: Weaponsized Infectious Disease and Emerging Disease

Various | 3-17-03 | Bones McCoy

[bonesmccoy]

BioTerrorism Analysis: Weaponsized Infectious Disease and Emerging Disease (A Free Republic Technical Analysis)

About five weeks ago, I started a technical thread that analyzed the space shuttle disaster which killed an international flight crew and lead to wreckage over the southwestern United States. In that thread, we had a remarkable range of technical and analytical skills which this website brought to bear. Because we are anonymous, we can pursue fact without fear of the liberals killing our careers or worse. Tonight, I seek to create a thread on a more serious national security problem, biological weapons of mass destruction and emerging infectious diseases.

The use of weapons of mass destruction had previously been limited due to the inability of other nations to build nuclear fission or fusion weapons. The construction of biological or chemical weapons may not be as technically challenging.

Subsequent to the attacks at WTC, the national security command structure has appropriately realigned US federal policy to reflect the vulnerability of our nation. Use of civilian systems as a vehicle for military-style attack and mass carnage has created significant economic damage in our nation. There is little question that the attacks of September 11, 2001, created a negative economic impact on our entire nation.

However, the negative economic impact of these attacks must be limited by the skill of the citizenry to respond. In particular, the US citizenry must not leave security up to others, we must take action ourselves in order to limit the damage of terror in our cities.

Use of agents of biological terror can create ripple effects that are more significant than the attacks of September 11, 2001. These effects will manifest in the economic impact of increased apprehension in the populace. Failure of our medical services to appropriately mobilize to react to threat will cause increased economic damage.

It is my opinion that our national leadership has not been fully briefed on the gravity of the situation.

While Tom Ridge and Tommy Thompson are making difficult decisions and working diligently to restructure our federal government in the wake of 9-11-01, it is obvious that the public health system is NOT reacting to the threat of BW use by Iraq. The slow response of public health authorities to the release of small pox vaccine by the White House is testimony to the amount of political inertia in the public health system. This inertia appears to be politically motivated. Meanwhile, the private medical system has little fiscal or economic defense against biological attack. If it were not for the President's advocacy for terrorism insurance, we would not have ANY protection whatsoever.

Response to a biological attack requires the following:
1. A confident work force that can mobilize in the face of the attack.
2. An orderly work process that can process hundreds of casualties in a few hours time.
3. Maintenance of social order to insure that civilian enterprises (both governmental and privately owned) can continue to function in the economy.

If social order can not be maintained, the economy will suffer additional damage which will ripple through our nation.

[tiki]

As a farmer I think it would be hard to infect a crop without spraying with a crop duster and more than likely I'd see or hear any plane that sprayed my crops and I know all the crop dusting planes in my area. It would have to be something that didn't kill immediately because even if someone managed to spray my crops, the crops would still have to be harvested and handled and if farmers were dying they'd try to find out why and the stuff would never reach the market. It would also kill birds and animals and I'd be trying to find out why they were dying if it didn't get me first. I might not have thought this through and if anyone thinks otherwise I'd be glad to hear your opinions.

[maestro]

'LLSS'.......

:-(

[Paleo Conservative]

What if France has existing deals to send such technology to Iraq (in return for oil)?

Reread post #17. That's what we do if the French are supplying this technology to Iraq.

[tiki]

We spray most of our food crops with anti-fungals to prevent some of these diseases and though the specific fungi and viruses that you mention might not have made it to the US, plenty have and we have to treat them proactively because once they have the disease or fungi it is too late.

[bonesmccoy]

I'm not trying to create paranoia. I'm trying to figure out how to prevent a foreign power from using infectious disease to threaten us.

We have no need to be "paranoid".

We do have reason to be concerned with BT weapons.

The rational response is to look at the biological contants and build lab/clinical capabilities to match the identified constants.

This analysis needs to be done in order to safeguard our populace.

[Paleo Conservative]

This link should work better.

Reread post #17

[bonesmccoy]

i just did a google search for the Pasteur Institute. I was not aware that the Pasteur Institute had a link to Iran.

http://www.pasteur.ac.ir/accredition.htm

More importantly, I just did a search for Pasteur Institute and Iraq... this is what I found:

http://www.austin360.com/aas/news/031503/0315weapons.html

"Iraq links germs for weapons to U.S., French organizations
By Philip Shenon

THE NEW YORK TIMES

Saturday, March 15, 2003

WASHINGTON — Iraq has identified a Virginia-based biological supply house and a French scientific institute as the sources of all the foreign germ samples that it used to create the biological weapons that are still believed to be in Iraq's arsenal, according to U.S. officials and foreign diplomats who have reviewed Iraq's latest weapons declaration to the United Nations."

[Paleo Conservative]

I'm not trying to create paranoia. I'm trying to figure out how to prevent a foreign power from using infectious disease to threaten us.

The bad thing about bioterrorism is how cheap it is compared to terrorism using other WMD. At least nuclear weapons require huge investments of billions of dollars in exotic equipment. Biological weapons can be made using fairly inexpensive equipment obtained from mail order catalogs.

[Cold Heat]

What if France has existing deals to send such technology to Iraq

Declaring war on France would then be on the table!

Sorry Bones, I could not resist the temptation. I cannot contribute much to this thread, but it is a interesting and timely subject for sure!

[tiki]

I agree somewhat but farmers are always battling new pests and diseases. And yes, it raises the cost of production but new pest or old they're always there.

[Libertarianize the GOP]

http://www.freerepublic.com/perl/bump-list

[bonesmccoy]

The fact that BT weapons require minimal capital is concerning.

If economics are to be used to regulate supplies and commerce used in biological labs, the expense of biochemicals should increase to very high levels and NIH funding should escalate to warp the availability of such supplies to third-world nations.

In addition, the costs to domestic research labs should be very low to speed our biomedical development at a disproportionate rate to other nations.

Another good point is that the cost of rapid diagnosis for disease is currently high. If the Bush Administration favors development of rapid diagnosis kits for various viral illnesses, it would have the effect of improving cash flow for primary care offices, improving the rate of diagnosis, improving the certainty of the diagnosis, and improving defenses to viral BT agents.

[Spirited]

Outstanding-idea-for-a-thread-bump!

[bonesmccoy]

Yes, and the same can be said for Jenner and coxpox.

That's why the President did the right thing in releasing the small pox vaccine to the civilian first responders. Why in heck the local county guys can't figure out how to get the vial out of their refrigerator is beyond me!

[bonesmccoy]

hey wirestripper... you have great analytical skills... check out the questions in post 1... I posted one response to question 1 already. Your input on my assumptions would be appreciated.

I'm thinking of using a spreadsheet to run a couple of other scenarios.

It would be good to see if rapid response (i.e. diagnosis in 48-72 hours for any ill person in the US).