Saudi Quid Pro Quo Behind White House Press Conference

STRATFOR ^ | Mar 14, 2003 | Staff

[Axion]

Saudi Quid Pro Quo Behind White House Press Conference
Mar 14, 2003

Summary

Although a March 14 announcement from the White House -- where U.S. President George W. Bush discussed a new "roadmap" for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict -- initially appeared to be a ploy to divert attention from plans to attack Iraq, Stratfor has learned that the announcement was part of an integral quid pro quo with Saudi Arabia that is very much related to the Iraq issue.

Analysis

Soon after U.S. President George W. Bush announced renewed involvement in Israeli-Palestinian peace talks on March 14, a Stratfor intelligence brief stated that Washington was maneuvering to ease pressure on its allies, particularly British Prime Minister Tony Blair, stemming from war against Iraq. We also noted that it was possible the Bush administration sought to reassure other Middle Eastern states that are concerned about potential Israeli strikes -- such as Syria -- that Washington would exert its influence to rein in any aggressive Israeli actions.

However, Stratfor since has learned of a very different motivation behind the White House press conference: It was a way of satisfying a Saudi Arabian condition for taking part in the war against Iraq. New intelligence suggests that Riyadh wanted Washington to affirm the peace process in a very public, high-level way -- thus strengthening the perception within the kingdom that the regime had extracted a price from the United States in return for a degree of cooperation against Iraq.

A quid pro quo of Saudi bases for concessions on the Palestinian issue by Washington would bolsters Riyadh's image as a powerbroker rather than giving it the appearance of buckling under U.S. pressure.

Governments in the Middle East often use the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a diversionary tactic. Riyadh introduced its own Middle East peace plan in early 2002, likely as a means of sidestepping U.S. pressure to crack down on al Qaeda supporters within the kingdom. Now, the regime may be further championing the Palestinian cause in attempts to reduce some of the domestic backlash it could expect by cooperating with U.S. military action against a fellow Muslim country.

For the Bush administration, giving in to the request was part of the final phase of diplomacy before a war in Iraq begins. It was an integral part of the diplomatic calculus and something that needed to be done before a March 16 summit between the United States, Britain, Spain and Portugal -- where the final strategic issues are likely be settled before an attack is launched.

[PhiKapMom]

Look at this! Scott -- you were right!

[varina davis]

So, what else is new in the world of foreign diplomacy.

[Libertarianize the GOP]

http://www.freerepublic.com/perl/bump-list

[tracer]

Quid Pro Quo!! Is that towel-head back in town??

[tracer]

And what about his lovely sister, Quae Passah?

[Earl B.]

... and another piece of the puzzle falls into place.

[VRWC_minion]

Sounds like a fair trade. Now what is Chirac's price and how come we weren't the highest bidder ?

[bvw]

The biggest piece is why the Admin hasn't come forward with the full Iraqi terror story post Guld War I. But I guess this is some tell as to it, a platonic shadow, maybe.

[UncleSamUSA]

Its an interesting theory, but would it also explain the Press Conference by Tony Blair just an hour after Bush's speech, in which Blair reaffirmed what Bush said and emphasized his approval of Bush's roadmap agenda.

I think the speech may have served two purposes; to mollify the Europeans and help Blair and also to assuage possible ill-feeling in the Arab world about the upcoming Iraq attack.

The Saudis have already allowed us a limited use of their country, but have also put some hard and fast limits on what the US could do [after all that is why the US Central Command was moved out of Saudi Arabia and over to Qatar]. Anyway, we can put this in the mix of strategic ideas; but whatever the genesis of the idea, I think that this speech today was a pretty strong indication that war with Iraq is near.

[Cicero]

That's what most of the Freepers said on the thread about it earlier.

What we don't know is whether Bush really means it, or whether it's just cover for the Saudis. In any case, the Palestinians will never play ball, so the worst that can come of it is more low-level violence and Palestinian terrorism while they pretend to negotiate.

[sneakypete]

Amazing,if true. We are already protecting the Saudi's by attacking Iraq for them,and now here they are directing US foreign policy as it concerns Israel? This is truly ironic when you stop and consider that it is Saudi Arabia we should be invading,not Iraq. THEY are the ones responsible for the attacks on us,and we "punish" them be removing their biggest threat at the cost of the lives of how many US military members?