Posted on 03/14/2003 10:58:47 AM PST by HAL9000
JERUSALEM (AP) -- The probability of an Iraqi attack on Israel is "very, very, very low," Israel's army chief said in an interview published Friday, noting that he has seen no evidence that Saddam Hussein has moved Scud missiles into striking range of Israel.Israel's military chief, Lt. Gen. Moshe Yaalon, told the Maariv daily that an Israeli spy satellite had not picked up any sign of Scuds in the area and that the probability of a missile strike appeared slim.
"The probability is very, very, very low," Yaalon told the paper. "The director of military intelligence has said that he does not see missiles there."
Fox News on Friday quoted unidentified U.S. defense officials as saying they had detected movement of Scuds along Iraq's western edge, a sign that Saddam could be considering a pre-emptive missile attack on Israel. In the 1991 Gulf War, Iraq launched 39 Scuds from there at Israel.
The interview with Yaalon was conducted Monday, raising the possibility of Scud movement since then. However, Y Net, the Web site of the Yediot Ahronot newspaper, also quoted Israeli defense officials Friday as saying they had no evidence of Scuds in western Iraq.
Yaalon played down the possibility that Iraq would launch an initial missile barrage on Israel. Such a strike would work against the Iraqi leader's interest because it would unite the international community now starkly divided over whether to attack Iraq, Yaalon said.
"We presume that (attacking Israel) will begin to interest him (Saddam) when he is with his back to the wall," Yaalon said. "We need to identify this moment and hope that by then he will no longer have the capabilities to attack us."
Yaalon also said that Israeli intelligence shows Iraqi forces are not built up on the country's western edge but concentrated around Baghdad, meaning Saddam probably wants to draw U.S. forces into a tedious urban war that might prolong the fighting.
Israel expects to have warning from the United States of an attack on Iraq, but it also has enough of its own intelligence to spot any movement of U.S. forces that would indicate the start of the offensive, Yaalon said.
In the 1991 Gulf War, all Scuds fired at Israel carried conventional warheads, but panicked Israelis scrambled for gas masks and shelters. The missiles mostly landed in the crowded Tel Aviv area, causing few casualties but some damage.
Hoping to shoot down any incoming rockets, Israel has set up U.S. Patriot missile batteries along with the Arrow missile system, which was developed jointly by the United States and Israel and is the world's only fully deployed anti-missile system.
Copyright 2003 Associated Press. All rights reserved.
Israel's military chief, Lt. Gen. Moshe Yaalon, told the Maariv daily that an Israeli spy satellite had not picked up any sign of Scuds in the area and that the probability of a missile strike appeared slim.
I hope that Yaalon is correct. If not, then he has seriously damaged not only his credibility, but the credibility of Israeli intelligence (not to mention that a lot of people could get killed or injured). Remarks like this also tend to reduce the population's efforts to take appropriate precautions. If it were me, I'd keep my mouth shut - the downside is a lot higher than the upside.
If I were Israel, I'd err on the side of conservatism and remain prepared for SCUD attacks.
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