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Blair's gamble as allies prepare to go to war
The Scotsman ^ | March 13, 2003 | ALISON HARDIE

Posted on 03/13/2003 1:19:03 AM PST by MadIvan

TONY Blair made his final gamble on winning United Nations approval for war with Iraq yesterday as he laid out a six-point ultimatum for Saddam Hussein to disarm.

His plan triggered chaotic horsetrading at the UN headquarters in New York, leading a frustrated United States to demand a final decision by tomorrow.

Mr Blair prepared for his move to end in failure yesterday, saying that he is prepared to send British troops to Iraq even without the UN’s authority. A defeated resolution could mean war by Sunday.

Britain yesterday released a "tick list" of tasks for Saddam. They demand that the Iraqi president makes a televised confession about stockpiling banned weapons materials, and that he declares a "strategic decision" to give them up.

This list would run alongside, but not be part of, a second UN resolution - whose fate now lies with five states: Angola, Cameroon, Mexico, Chile and Guinea. Their ambassadors appeared to switch positions back and forth yesterday, leaving it unclear where any stood.

Spain argued that, as France has promised to veto a second resolution no matter what it contains, it is better to tear up the plan rather than hold a vote certain to be defeated.

Ana Palacio, Spain’s foreign minister, said France’s determination to apply its veto "whatever the circumstances" meant the second resolution, co-sponsored by her government, should be torn up.

And, in a sign that the British government increasingly accepts it will not achieve a second resolution, Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, admitted he also had doubts.

He made little effort to hide his contempt for France and its determination to use its veto in the Security Council, saying: "What I guarantee is that we are working as hard as we possibly can to secure a second resolution. We are having to do so in circumstances in which one of the permanent members of the Security Council has said, whatever the circumstances, they will veto a resolution, so that is not easy."

If a vote is to be held, it is likely to be taken tomorrow, at the UN headquarters .

It is understood that if the motion fails to win a majority, the US is ready to start military action within hours.

Mr Blair dealt easily with Conservative taunts in the Commons following an outburst against him by Clare Short, the International Development Secretary.

There was a sign yesterday that Labour MPs, even some doubters, were finally falling in behind their leader as Mr Blair won majority support at the weekly meeting of the party’s politicians held at Westminster.

Mike O’Brien, the Foreign Office minister, declared: "Today was the day that the tide turned."

Jack McConnell, the First Minister, will this morning decide whether he will personally defend Mr Blair in today’s key debate in the Scottish Parliament. Mr McConnell has stayed out of all previous debates on the issue, but is being urged to break his silence by Labour MSPs.

Britain’s six-point ultimatum is being sold to the Security Council as a "peace plan" in an attempt to secure the nine votes needed for a new resolution.

However, the government has all but written off any prospect of French support.

Mr Blair said his six tests are essential to send "the strongest possible signal out to Saddam Hussein that he has now to disarm or face the consequences".

He also told the Commons that UK troops would take part in any United States-led military action against Iraq.

His comments were designed to heal the rift over a threat by Donald Rumsfeld, the US defence secretary, that America would "go it alone" if the government failed to get parliamentary approval for war.

Mr Blair told MPs: "The reason why it is important that we hold firm to the course we have set is because what is at stake is not whether the US goes alone or not, it is whether the international community is prepared to back up the clear instruction it gave Saddam Hussein with the necessary action.

"That is why I am determined to hold to the course we have set out."

Mr Blair was disrupted on his way to meet the German Chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, in London last night to try to seek consensus on war.

Police said the Prime Minister’s car was forced to stop and a number plate was partly pulled from the front of the vehicle.

Peter Tatchell, the human rights campaigner, was arrested afterwards over an alleged breach of the peace.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; US: District of Columbia; United Kingdom
KEYWORDS: blair; bush; chirac; france; iraq; saddam; straw; uk; ukdemands; us
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Blair's strategy, I believe, is to place the blame for the UN's problems on the French; an excellent idea as it is absolutely true, and the emnity between England and France still exists, if more subdued these days.

As ever, with you at the first, with you to the last.

Regards, Ivan


1 posted on 03/13/2003 1:19:03 AM PST by MadIvan
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To: TEXOKIE; Pan_Yans Wife; mumbo; Siouxz; Otta B Sleepin; Mr. Mulliner; Semper911; Bubbette; ...
Bump!
2 posted on 03/13/2003 1:19:23 AM PST by MadIvan (Learn the power of the Dark Side, www.thedarkside.net)
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To: MadIvan
Angola, Cameroon, Mexico, Chile and Guinea

One cannot help but to conclude that the purpose of the UN is to force America to kneel before nations like these.

3 posted on 03/13/2003 1:29:27 AM PST by CrimeOf73
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To: CrimeOf73
I think of the UN more like the psychic hotline -- you just give them your credit card number, and they give you a lot of worthless generic information; you walk away feeling better, sort of a deep experience, deeper understanding of the cosmos, unless you're actually stupid enough to wager something valuable on their advice or until you receive your credit card bill, whichever comes first.
4 posted on 03/13/2003 1:39:23 AM PST by OahuBreeze
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To: MadIvan
the emnity between England and France
yes and this has something to do with the French aversion to cleanliness, soap and water... and eating of disgusting things like frog legs and snails... The French are a force of evil in the world. I expect them to have a new government by this time next year... their seventh in the last 150 years, to our one in 225 and your one in what, 600 or more? and yes... I now officially despise the French. Sorry Tony has to share the strait with them...
5 posted on 03/13/2003 2:12:48 AM PST by Robert_Paulson2
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To: Robert_Paulson2
The battle lines haven't been drawn like this since William Pitt the Younger was Prime Minister, and wanted to wage war on France, to use Simon Schama's words, in the name of liberty versus absolutism (which was what France represented).

In this instance, Iraq represents absolutism, as does Iran and North Korea, and these are defended by France. And the forces of liberty, old and new are riding into battle against them.

Regards, Ivan

6 posted on 03/13/2003 2:19:33 AM PST by MadIvan (Learn the power of the Dark Side, www.thedarkside.net)
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To: Robert_Paulson2
If the adage about being what you eat has any validity, the French have really serious problems...
7 posted on 03/13/2003 2:28:21 AM PST by merak
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To: MadIvan
Thank you ,Mad Ivan,for your information. The press should be hung for some of the spin on Rumsfields remarks. I have believed in our ultimate partnership and valued it.God Bless The Brits.
8 posted on 03/13/2003 2:48:31 AM PST by MEG33
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To: MadIvan
Ivan why is Jack Straw still pressing ahead with the 6 points even after word the French will veto it??

What is going on in the British government....it's like they are of two minds.

9 posted on 03/13/2003 2:52:15 AM PST by Dog (Courage is being scared to death... and saddling up anyway. ~John Wayne)
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To: Dog
It's a gesture to the Left of the Labour Party in my view. Jack is trying to say all routes were exhausted before giving up.

Regards, Ivan

10 posted on 03/13/2003 2:56:49 AM PST by MadIvan (Learn the power of the Dark Side, www.thedarkside.net)
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To: MadIvan
Thanks Ivan..

BTW don't you ever sleep??

11 posted on 03/13/2003 2:58:20 AM PST by Dog (Courage is being scared to death... and saddling up anyway. ~John Wayne)
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To: MadIvan
Ivan this briefing for Duncan Smith today was that Blair giving the opposition the heads up??
12 posted on 03/13/2003 2:59:32 AM PST by Dog (Courage is being scared to death... and saddling up anyway. ~John Wayne)
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To: Dog
Just keeping them informed, I imagine Dog. IDS and the Conservatives have been behind Blair 100% in respect of his position on Iraq.
13 posted on 03/13/2003 3:01:58 AM PST by Happygal
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To: Happygal
Thank you ma'am....:-)
14 posted on 03/13/2003 3:03:05 AM PST by Dog (Courage is being scared to death... and saddling up anyway. ~John Wayne)
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To: MadIvan
a man with this degree of integrity and honor (i could go on)is needed here with us...Tony Blair for Pesisdent 2008...to quote a great President...THANKS FRIEND!
15 posted on 03/13/2003 3:04:59 AM PST by mc10
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To: Dog
Likely. IDS was just on the radio saying military action has become much more likely, and that our thoughts and prayers should be with the armed forces.

Regards, Ivan

16 posted on 03/13/2003 3:08:36 AM PST by MadIvan (Learn the power of the Dark Side, www.thedarkside.net)
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To: CrimeOf73
One cannot help but to conclude that the purpose of the UN is to force America to kneel before nations like these.

The purpose of the UN is to check American power, period.

America is the only country that does not need an alliance since we can beat any combination of them.

BUMP

17 posted on 03/13/2003 3:19:35 AM PST by tm22721
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To: MadIvan
My question is will Tony Blair be able to maintain his governmentthrough any potential no confidence votes? Are the Tories solidly behind him on this?
18 posted on 03/13/2003 4:53:12 AM PST by harpseal (Stay well - Stay safe - Stay armed - Yorktown)
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To: harpseal
My question is will Tony Blair be able to maintain his governmentthrough any potential no confidence votes? Are the Tories solidly behind him on this?

A vote of no confidence will not happen; that would cause the entire government to fall and fresh elections to occur, neither of which is on the cards. What even the most extreme Labour Party leftist wants is Blair to be replaced as leader of the Labour Party; this is extremely difficult as the Labour Party membership as a whole, not just the MPs, have to decide on this, and requires a special conference and vote. It would be extraordinarily hard to do all this.

The Tories will vote, with only 3 or 4 exceptions, for the war, as will the Ulster Unionist parties.

Regards, Ivan

19 posted on 03/13/2003 4:59:02 AM PST by MadIvan (Learn the power of the Dark Side, www.thedarkside.net)
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To: MadIvan
Thanks for the information. The details of the British political system are not always totally clear to those of us on this side of the water. You have confirmed what I thought but was not sure of.
20 posted on 03/13/2003 5:44:38 AM PST by harpseal (Stay well - Stay safe - Stay armed - Yorktown)
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