Posted on 03/12/2003 10:15:45 PM PST by LdSentinal
Democratic challenger Dan Hynes has moved ahead of the beleaguered GOP incumbent Peter G. Fitzgerald in a 2004 U.S. Senate trial heat.
Hynes, 34, who has twice won landslide elections as state comptroller, is the early front-runner in what is expected to be a hard-fought Democratic primary. A growing number of Democratic and Republican officeholders view him as a clear favorite over Fitzgerald if Hynes is the Democratic nominee.
Fitzgerald, 42, who narrowly defeated a vulnerable Carol Moseley Braun in 1998, admits he is facing a more difficult race next year.
It is most unusual for a sitting U.S. senator to trail an opponent more than a year and a half before he faces the voters. But Fitzgerald is regarded as the most vulnerable senator in either party up for re-election next year, and Hynes is among the state's top vote-getters.
Hynes is favored by 34 percent and Fitzgerald by 31 percent, according to a statewide survey that was conducted by Illinois Wesleyan University's political science department.
This same telephone survey indicated that only 27 percent of Illinois residents said Fitzgerald should be re-elected next year, while 38 percent said someone else deserved a chance to represent Illinois in the U.S. Senate.
These findings are similar to a statewide poll conducted earlier this winter by a nationally prominent GOP polling firm that found only 24.3 percent of likely voters would support Fitzgerald for re-election ''regardless of who ran against him.''
In this Republican survey, Fitzgerald's strongest showing was 34 percent when matched against five possible Democratic rivals. On the basis of these numbers, there is growing doubt that Fitzgerald can win against any Democrat.
Fitzgerald is more vulnerable at this point than any Illinois GOP senator since the late Ralph Tyler Smith, who got only 42 percent of the vote in his 1970 re-election bid against popular state Treasurer Adlai E. Stevenson III.
Both of the polls cited above were taken before Fitzgerald created an international incident when he blabbed details about a private conversation with President Bush aboard Air Force One. Fitzgerald publicly boasted that Bush had confided to him that he might order the assassination of Iraq's dictator Saddam Hussein. Bush was embarrassed, and senior administration officials are still livid that Fitzgerald betrayed the president's confidence.
This incident reinforced the perception that Fitzgerald is a loose cannon who lacks the judgment to be a serious and effective legislator. In contrast, Hynes is a team player who is more interested in getting results than making headlines.
It is because of Fitzgerald's vulnerability that Hynes is facing stiff competition in the Democratic primary. In addition to the comptroller, the field is expected to include former Board of Education President Gery Chico, investment banker Blair Hull, state Sen. Barack Obama (D-Chicago), Cook County Treasurer Maria Pappas and hospital administrator Joyce Washington, who made a credible run in last year's Democratic primary for lieutenant governor.
As of now, Obama and Hull are viewed by Hynes' camp as their main threats in the '04 primary. Obama, as the most prominent African-American contender, has the potential to get more than 30 percent of the primary vote. Hull, whose personal fortune is estimated at about $500 million, has indicated a willingness to spend an Illinois record of $20 million to win the Democratic nomination.
Based on filings made by Hull, Hynes and the other contenders are eligible to accept contributions of up to $6,000 from individuals. Hynes is aiming to raise between $5 million and $8 million for the primary.
To kick off this effort, Cook County Board President John H. Stroger and County Commissioner John P. Daley are co-chairing a fund-raiser for Hynes next Tuesday night at Plumbers' Hall on the Near West Side.
The co-chairmen of Hynes' finance committee are Elzie Higginbottom, Mellody Hobson, Tom Klutznick, Ray Mota and Mike Rooney.
For Hynes, who had two easy runs for comptroller, the Democratic senatorial primary is his first major test. His advantage over the field is that he is the only candidate who has won statewide office. But Hynes has never faced this level of competition. If he makes it through what could be a tough primary, Hynes is a good bet to send Fitzgerald into early retirement.
I know it's easy to blame all the Illinois Republican's problems on George Ryan, but I don't think the former Governor was responsible for Peter the Putz mouthing off about Bush's policies.
Every time Bush does anything to support Peter, Peter screws him over. Bush endorsed him, Peter said Bush was wrong about affirmative action. Bush gives him a ride on Air Force One, Peter can't wait to tell the press everything Bush said to him.
He needs to be taken out in the primary to avoid losing his seat to a democrat. George Ryan isn't to blame for Peter's lousy poll numbers. Peter has no one to blame but himself.
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