Snubbing Turkey--State Department missteps played a part in Saturday’s embarrassing vote.

National Review ^ | 3-3-03 | Joel Mowbray

[SJackson]

The Turkish parliament's failure this weekend to approve the basing of U.S. troops made headlines around the world, but the unreported backstory is how officials at the U.S. State Department have their fingerprints all over the mess in Ankara. With the margin of defeat so narrow — a mere four votes shy of a simple majority — State's unfortunate diplomacy in the past few months likely made the difference.

Winning the support of Turkey for any Iraq invasion was the State Department's job and now many in the White House are wondering what went wrong. Turkey has been a reluctant, but willing, partner during four months of negotiations. Media reports, however, pegged Turkey as attempting to be bought off by the U.S. for supporting an Iraqi invasion. That was one of the key problems.

News accounts airing details of the supposedly secret negotiations made Turkey's leadership look driven almost solely by money. "The leaks made Turkey look like a prostitute," complains one Turkish official. Part of this anger stems from the fact that the leaks claiming Turkey was still shaking down the U.S. for more money continued even after the economic issues had been agreed upon and taken off the table.

While the source of leaks can never be known for certain, but officials at both State and the Pentagon insist that the leaks were part of a coordinated campaign by State to strong-arm Turkey. If so, the tactic backfired.

But the leaks were only part of the problem. People familiar with the political scene in Turkey — as much as 90 percent of the public opposes war with Iraq — knew for months before Saturday that the vote in the parliament would be tight. In an effort to build more support among the Turkish military, the Pentagon wanted to send a delegation to Turkey in November. State refused. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage was adamant that the Pentagon not encroach on State's turf, and the military meeting was scuttled.

In fairness to the State Department, dealing with the Turkish leadership is not an easy task. Most of the members of the ruling Justice and Development Party lack the sophistication found in more seasoned governments. One Defense Department official who is an avid supporter of Turkey comments that Saturday's vote is a sign that it is "amateur hour" in the Turkish government. Further complicating matters, the top spot in the Turkish government is likely changing hands in a week, when the head of the Justice and Development Party, Tayyip Erdogan, becomes eligible for the prime-minister slot (which he will likely move into).

Erdogan supported the failed resolution, but changing leadership is a process that can take up to two weeks. Although some wire stories Sunday indicated that the Turkish parliament would not take up the resolution when it reconvenes Tuesday, Turkish officials insist that it could be voted on again this week. If that doesn't happen, though, the timetable could stretch out for an extra week or two as the new leadership is installed.

Discussions about a follow-up vote in parliament might have been moot if State had handled itself differently — in Iraq. According to a Turkish official, one of the items that members of the parliament were angriest about was the exclusion of Turkish-backed individuals from the leadership of the Iraqi opposition.

In a meeting Friday in Northern Iraq, six leaders were selected — including one backed by Iran and another who is popular with Saudi Arabia — but the leader of the group representing Iraq's sizeable Turkoman population was merely promised a position on some unspecified committee. The move puzzled many in the Bush administration. "State warmly embraced the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution (backed by Tehran) and went out of its way to keep Saudi Arabia happy, but then they decided to screw our ally," complains a Defense Department official.

It is unclear exactly how many votes were swayed by the previous day's snub in northern Iraq, but considering the resolution only failed by four votes out of 534 members present, State's actions there could have been the difference. Either way, it is a sore spot for many in the Bush administration — some of whom think the State Department angering Turkey was no accident. Notes a Defense Department official familiar with the Iraqi opposition groups: "Many top officials at State don't want to go to war in Iraq. State knew the politics of the situation, yet they excluded the group backed by Turkey right as the Turkish parliament was voting on the resolution. It makes you wonder: Is State trying to undermine the president?"

— Joel Mowbray is an NRO contributor and a Townhall.com columnist.

[dixiechick2000]

He's agreeing with Just mythoughts post #15.

[dixiechick2000]

He's agreeing with Just mythoughts post #15.

[a_Turk]

>> Is there a realistic chance of a second (and successful) vote this week by Turkey?

Not unless the ruling party is willing to risk that this crack among their ranks might turn into a split...

[dixiechick2000]

He's agreeing with Just mythoughts post #15.

[Just mythoughts]

With Hurl-all-do, yes this guy has been on several times over the past week, and it was a hoot to hear him blame CNN and American press for insulting the people.

This is why I was not surprised with the vote.

[dixiechick2000]

Sorry about the hiccup!

[dixiechick2000]

I saw him a couple of times with different interviewers. They had a hard time getting him to talk about anything else.

[johnb838]

It was Turkey who screwed up big

Eenie-meenie-minie-mo The hell with Turkey, we gotta go. Hey, no hard feelings turks... didn't work out this time. We need to move the troops now... you can't sit and wait for something that may well never happen. I'm waiting for the turks to start trying to pressure us to give them the money anyway, without providing access.

[Just mythoughts]

Well, considering that appartently what was being played on CNN in Turkey, there must have been quite an uprising with the population complaining they wanted nothing to do with this deal.

This was days before the vote, I took note because he used the name of CNN and American press calling Turkey blackermailers and he was trying to say something.

Who knows what all was going on and if the State Dept. was the actual source since CNN has a Clinton base on site.

[I Am Not A Mod]

This thread just was added to the Free Republic Highlights, 3/03/03 thread.

[justshutupandtakeit]

You aren't falling for this baloney are you? State is not undermining anything. The relationship between the DoD and the Turkish military is much easier to obtain that any with the party of nuts which is taking over the government.

There is no split here.

[justshutupandtakeit]

Baloney. Not a word of truth in your post.

[colorado tanker]

Well, Turk, you've been right all along and people like me who bought State's spin were wrong. What's next? Are we completely screwed out of a northern front?

[William McKinley]

While I am disappointed in the vote, I do think that it would be unfair to place the blame squarely at your country's feet. You guys got screwed during the last gulf war, you guys absolutely should be involved in a post-Saddam opposition coalition, and so on.

[a_Turk]

I am afraid the fat lady has sung..

You've still got rights to use the air bases though.. That's probably salvagable without actually having a pouring out of LUV and coming to a full alliance sort of partnership agreement. We both have to preserve our manhood (/sarc) afterall..

You guys are strong and magnificent babes in those woods full of old wolves. I don't know how else to put it.

[justshutupandtakeit]

That is full of crap. Nothing has been harmed by going to the UN except the UN. It has not slowed us down at all. Buildups continue while we gave the organization a chance to show it has some value. It couldn't.

It has allowed our "friends" France and Germany to show their true faces. And it was done for Tony Blair's benefit to try and convince his nutty party that this was not a two man show. That worked as the vote last week showed.

In FACT, as opposed to ideological claptrap, this move has been productive and was well done. In the last months the irrelevence of the UN and NATO has been pointed out.

Our strategic thinking will change because of this. It has been most illuminating and underlined most of the points we have been making on FR for a long time.

[William McKinley]

Yep.

[dixiechick2000]

Yes. He said specifically CNN and the American press.

There was a thread this weekend about members of the Turkish Parliament(?) passing around political cartoons from our press. Apparently, these cartoons reiterated what CNN had said re: blackmailers. To say they were not flattering towards Turkey would be an understatement.

He seemed, to me anyway, to know that the vote would be tight, and was trying to explain why it would be. Also, he may have been trying to get CNN and the press to back off. Can't say that I blame him.

[gcruse]

I wonder how many Clinton holdovers still work there?

The question is, when it comes to the State Department, does the President delegate or does he abdicate?