Posted on 03/02/2003 6:03:01 PM PST by blam
US rethinks tactics after Turkish MPs block troops
By Pelin Turgut in Istanbul and Rupert Cornwell in
Washington 03 March 2003
American military planners were urgently reshaping tactics for an invasion of Iraq yesterday after the surprise vote of the Turkish parliament to reject the deployment of some 62,000 US troops to Turkish bases.
The vote, barring an unlikely reversal this week, would seem to rule out opening a second front in the north.
Saturday's vote did produce a majority – of 264 to 250 – in favour of the deployment, but fell four votes short of the required majority of deputies present. A rattled State Department initially asked for "clarification" and some American officials were still expressing confidence last night that Washington would ultimately get its way.
But there seemed little ground for such optimism. After marathon meetings with his MPs, the Turkish Prime Minister, Abdullah Gul, said: "This was a democratic process. Parliament has demonstrated its will. We have to respect this."
So sure had America been of approval that ships laden with tanks and supplies were waiting, ready to start unloading, off Turkey's Mediterranean coast. The 1st and 4th Infantry Divisions were also awaiting deployment to Turkey, from their bases in Germany and Texas respectively.
Troops and equipment may now have to be re-routed to the Gulf, already crammed with American and British forces preparing for an invasion that could start as soon as the next fortnight. But this timetable may have been thrown into question by the decision of the Turkish parliament.
Negotiators had spent months hammering out an agreement that would see 62,000 US troops and 255 planes deployed to Turkey in exchange for up to $30bn (£19bn) in loans and grants, as well as some say for Ankara in the future of Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq.
Mr Gul said yesterday the vote would not hurt relations with America. But the promised financial assistance – to make up for the heavy economic costs that Turkey says it would sustain from a war – must now be in question.
The result shocked leaders of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), who had expected their rank-and-file deputies to fall into line. But despite some arm-twisting, at least three AKP ministers and some 50 MPs defied their leaders to vote against the motion.
Pressure from their constituents might have been the deciding factor for many politicians. Opposition to a war is running high, at about 94 per cent. Many fear that war onIraq will cripple Turkey's economy, as the 1991 Gulf War did, and cause chaos on its borders.
Dissenting MPs, and even President Ahmet Necdet Sezer, had argued that the government should wait for a UN resolution explicitly authorising the use of force before submitting the bill to parliament.
The government has two choices: it can either try to salvage the deal that it so painstakingly drafted by resubmitting the motion in a modified form when parliament reconvenes tomorrow, or it could concede its loss, accept being sidelined in any war and risk alienating its closest ally.
• Coca-Cola is moving its headquarters for the Middle East region from Bahrain to Greece as a war in Iraq becomes ever more likely. A spokesman for the company denied the move was for security reasons, and said it was primarily a "business decision".
Meanwhile, here's to a new Kurdistan, Greater Jordan (with a PA State) and a democratic remnant Shia Iraq (tied to a secularized Iran).
PARTITION IRAQ - NOW !!
PARTITION IRAQ - NOW !!
PARTITION IRAQ - NOW !!
The article had some veracity until I stumbled on this little explanation of the Turkish vote. Antiwar sentiment has little to do with the vote. Most informed Turks know that the "war" is a forgone conclusion.
The Turks are holding out for a slice of the modern Iraqi pie. Or at least some control over the Kurdish minority in Iraq. The US was unwilling to provide that reassurance. The Turks balked at the prospect of armed, organized antagonists, camped on their boarder, logistically supported by the US.
While heavily indebted Turkey is swayed by the US financial generosity I suspect the US will utimately give Turkey a slice of the pie to gain their permission to transit/station troops on Turkish soil. Time will tell.
Time is the one commodity that can never be replaced.
The closing of the weather window makes it imperative to start the war this very month. Today, 3 March, is the New Moon and that would have been the desired time to start the air offensive. After any more haggling, it would still take weeks to get that armor offloaded and transported and made ready for battle. By that time, the weather window will be less than optimal if not closed on the southern front.
If this was not all a ruse de guerre, Turkey will have earned the dubious honor of being scorned not only by the European Union but also by the U.S.
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