Posted on 02/26/2003 10:48:16 PM PST by LdSentinal
Republican Party officials are holding out hope that three Cabinet secretaries will give up their jobs in the Bush administration in order to run for the Senate in 2004 against Democratic incumbents in California, Florida and Wisconsin.
But the three officials most frequently mentioned as Senate candidates, Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin, Housing and Urban Development Secretary Mel Martinez of Florida, and National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice, don't appear to be interested in testing their electoral appeal.
That's bad news for the GOP, which has not recruited any big-name candidates to take on Sens. Russ Feingold (Wis.) or Barbara Boxer (Calif.), both of whom could be vulnerable, or Sen. Bob Graham (Fla.), should he give up his seat to run for president.
In Wisconsin, popular Rep. Paul Ryan (R) turned down requests to challenge Feingold, a liberal in an independent-minded state who won his first two terms by narrow margins. That leaves the state GOP with only a handful of unknown state lawmakers considering challenges. It could be a close race.
Rice has not addressed entreaties to run for the Senate in 2004.
In California, the GOP's most promising potential candidate, Arnold Schwarzenegger, appears to be more interested in a gubernatorial bid in 2006. The state GOP faces a crowded primary featuring several candidates with a lot of money but little name recognition in the heavily Democratic state.
Thompson and Rice, however, could turn their state's fortunes around in no time, instantly transforming what are shaping up as cakewalks into competitive contests. "[Thompson] is probably the most popular governor the state has ever had," said Rick Wiley, political director of the Wisconsin Republican Party. "Obviously he would be a great candidate, and the folks in Wisconsin would love to see that." California Republican Party spokeswoman Karen Hanretty expressed a similar sentiment concerning Rice.
"[Reps. Doug] Ose and [Darrell] Issa have a lot of personal wealth, but she would enjoy celebrity status in the donor community," she said, referring to the two House candidates who are running for the seat. "It would be great to put up a woman to go up against Barbara Boxer. And [given] the problems the party has had with race issues, an African American woman would bode very well for our image." But Thompson, who was serving his fourth term when he reluctantly accepted his Cabinet post and has expressed misgivings about his decision, has publicly indicated that he is not interested in running for the Senate. Political observers say he has little interest in relinquishing the limited authority he enjoys as head of the largest government agency next to the Pentagon.
Thompson lent credence to that notion when he dismantled his longstanding gubernatorial campaign account, which had in excess of half a million dollars in it, and contributed some of the funds to a Wisconsin think tank.
Rice, the former provost of Stanford University and professor of political science, has not even addressed entreaties that she challenge Boxer next year. That's not a big surprise, given that she is engaged in an ongoing war against terrorism and helping to engineer a pending invasion of Iraq.
In Florida, Rep. Mark Foley (R) and former Rep. Bill McCollum (R) have already begun positioning themselves to run for Graham's seat, while freshman Rep. Katherine Harris (R) could also run if Graham does not. However, given her controversial role in the contested 2000 presidential election, she could be a mixed blessing for the party in 2004.
HUD Secretary Martinez, a Cuban native who came to Florida as a child, could energize the state's large, Democratic-leaning Hispanic community. As a member of the Bush administration, he has a patina of credibility in a state that has endorsed two Bushes, one as governor and another as president.
"He'd be an excellent candidate," said Towson Fraser, spokesman for the Florida Republican Party. "He is well thought of throughout the state, and is definitely well thought of by Republicans."
Martinez, however, has downplayed interest in a statewide campaign and has said he intends to finish out his term in the administration, according to Towson.
Republican activists nonetheless hope that Rice or Thompson will change their minds in the next 18 months, perhaps at the urging of a president eager to expand the GOP's narrow Senate majority, and give the GOP Senate campaigns a boost in the arm.
"Our grassroots people have been asking [Thompson] to run," said Rick Wiley, political director of the Wisconsin Republican Party. "Some of the chairmen have been contacting him to pseudo-draft him to do it."
Another Wisconsin political observer conceded that a Thompson bid is a longshot, but added that the notoriously unpredictable governor reluctantly accepted a job with the administration at President Bush's request and might run for Senate under the same circumstances.
Similarly, California Republicans refused to rule out the possibility of a Rice bid.
"I don't think it's a pipe dream," Hanretty said. "Who knows what's going to happen in next year. If it's a short war, and, the foreign policy story starts to die down a bit, she would be a real position to take a look at running for office here in California. And fall is a long way off in political terms."
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