Posted on 02/24/2003 7:37:34 AM PST by AmericanInTokyo
I-1. Struggle for Succession of Power (From Internal North Korean Sources Via Korean Media To Japanese Media to Free Republic) Released: 24 February 2003
Report: "North Korea is under the control of a hereditary regime. Present leader Kim Jong Il succeeded his father, the late Kim Il Sung. When power was transferred, the then President of the Russian Liberal Democratic Party Zirinofsky remarked, "Even Stalin did not transfer power to his son or daughter." North Korea is an extremely unusual country.
Many question why the country continues to develop nuclear weapons. One can only conclude that the Kim family stays in power by maintaining control over nuclear weapons, weapons that enable the family to stay in power.
If this view is correct, it does not matter how many economic concessions the international community including the US may make, they will never abandon the development of nuclear weapons. When the Clinton Administration was taking a reconciliatory policy toward North Korea, the North Koreans were still secretly developing nuclear weapons. It is said that the country has two or three nuclear weapons today.
An alliance between the US, South Korea and Japan could theoretically force North Korea to abandon nuclear weapon development in exchange for guarantees that they will stay in power. However, Mr. Kim believes that he and his family can only maintain power by keeping a grip on nuclear weapons. Therefore, the theory behind such an alliance is nonnegotiable and meaningless. It seems to be simply a political ploy by the alliance.
On February 16, Kim Jong Il celebrated his 61st birthday. At his palace, a plot as to who would succeed Mr. Kim was conceived. Kim Jong Il has two sons – elder son Kim Jong Nam and younger son Kim Jong Chol, each born to different mothers. The question is which son will succeed their father?
A power struggle between the two sons can be interpreted based on a different view; which son will take over control of the nuclear weapons. This will affect every aspect of East Asian geopolitics and has the possibility of increasing military tension in the region.
One powerful player in the struggle between the two sons is Ko Yong Hi, the current formal wife of Kim Jong Il. She is identified as the 'queen of North Korea' and seems to be able to control Mr. Kim.
'Monthly Korea,' a major monthly magazine in South Korea, reported that a campaign idolizing Ms. Ko among the nation has been started. Ms. Ko is the mother of Kim Jong Chol, the younger son. So far, Kim Jong Nam, the elder son, has been identified as the most probable successor, however the monthly magazine said that rails might have been laid for the younger Kim Jong Chol to be the successor. "
Under the communist regime, idolization of the mother of a possible successor is important in convincing military leaders, executives of the Labor Party and other government elites that her son will be the successor. Kim Jong Chol is only 22 years old and has never appeared at the forefront of North Korean politics. His mother Ko was a dancer. She has neither had experience fighting the Japanese army during World War II nor has she made any contribution to the country's revolution.
However, Ms. Ko is being made up to be a 'heroin of the revolution' who is familiar with military matters.
The North Korean military document obtained by the South Korean monthly magazine says, "We have a respectful 'omonim (mother)' who leads our supreme military commanders who are faithful to our great leader (Kim Jong Il), sun of 21st century." The document lists the ample achievements of Ms. Ko.
Kim Jong Il has several mistresses, but he brings Ms. Ko when he visits military forces. No other woman has been called the 'omonim.'
I-2. 'Genius of Military Strategy'
The document from the North Korean military obtained by the South Korean magazine fabricates what Queen Ko has done in leading the revolution.
It says, "When our respectful omonim (Ms. Ko) visited a group of female soldiers, she found that they were not well supplied with physiological materials. Ms. Ko said to the members of the Labor Party in a very sympathetic manner, 'The reason for the shortage is because necessary materials are sometime stolen while being transported. Great shogun Kim spent a lot of money on clothes for those women soldiers, therefore, the supply of those materials must be executed in an orderly manner.' The party members learned well from her."
Also, the document reports that Ms. Ko taught people how to make miso (soybean paste) balls and potato fried cakes at military cafeterias.
It is important to be aware that these home-style activities are making Ms. Ko look like a military genius. Such fabricated idolization of Ms. Ko is just amazing. It is so convenient and self-complacent.
Kim Jong Il's mother Kim Jong Su was described as a legendary 'master of gun shooting.' She has been identified as one of the three shoguns of North Korea – followed by late leader Kim Sung Il and Kim Jong Il today.
Gradually, a legend is being created that paints Ms. Ko as a 'great military strategy adviser to shogun Kim.' Such legend is being drilled into the nation's mind and provides a clue towards understanding how the absolute power of the Kim's was created and will continue on.
The campaign promoting Ms. Ko's achievements in improving the military to the nation must be intended to establish the power basis for her son Kim Jong Chol to succeed Kim Jong Il. This means for him to get a grip on the buttons used to launch nuclear weapons.
I-3. Possible Coup D'etat at Palace in Pyongyang
Kim Jong Nam, leader Kim's eldest son who had been identified as the most probable successor, attempted to enter Japan in 2001. However, he was caught and detained at Narita International Airport in Japan and ousted immediately.
Since then, Kim Jong Nam has been living in exile. It is reported that he has been visiting China, Macao, Russia and other countries and has never allowed returning to his country. Has he already lost a chance to succeed Mr. Kim? And, is his younger brother's succession inevitable?
The two brothers are 10 years apart in age. Kim Jong Nam was born in 1971 and Kim Jong Chol was born in 1981. Kim Jong Nam studied at an international school in Geneva and Kim Jong Chol did so in Bern, Switzerland. Kim Jong Nam's mother was a film actress, Song He Rim. When his father Kim Jong Il became the Section Chief of the North Korean Labor Party Culture and Arts Department, he indulged in film production. He was a playboy and rode a Harley Davidson motorcycle and in sports cars. He fell in love with a popular actress who was five years older than he. At that time, Ms. Song was married to another man and had a daughter. But, Mr. Kim forced her to live with him at his official residence. Soon, their son Nam was born.
His father Kim Song Il did not accept the marriage of his son with any actresses and forced him to get married to Kim Yong Suk. The birth of the baby with his mistress Song was concealed and child Nam had never been allowed to step out of the official residence since he was two to three years old.
Mistress Song had been forced into the shadows and she was depressed. The depression made her sick for a long time. It is also reported that Kim Jong Il had another lover called Song Hi Rim and had two daughters with her.
Osamu Eya, a Japanese journalist that is an expert in North Korean issues, said, "Mr. Kim Jong il had three or four coeds from Man Gyo De College serving him. The college is a school for the daughters of party executives. If the coeds got pregnant, they were sent to schools abroad,
"However, Mr. Kim was not satisfied with these coeds. A system for entertaining Mr. Kim, his relatives as well as high-ranking government officials was established. Women were selected from the families of local labors and farmers based on their beauty. The women were divided into three groups – sexual service group, message group and dancer group."
The three groups were called the 'Group Servicing for Pleasure.'
Among those women entertainers, Kim Jong Il met Ko Yong Hi who was a dancer and later became the 'Queen of North Korea.' Mr. Kim and his official wife Kim Yong Suk have only daughters. Kim Yong Suk died in Moscow last May. With other mistresses, Mr. Kim has only daughters. This made Ko Yong Hi, who gave birth to Kim Jong Chol, a position of power.
It is certain that the reckless behaviors with women exhibited by the late leader Kim Sung Il and his son Kim Jong Il have made the country unstable when power was transferred. The demagogue of Ms. Ko's military achievements stems from the fact she has a son to succeed the power of the country. Also, it can be interpreted that she and her associates are preparing to forcefully remove Mr. Kim's elder son Kim Jong Nam who had been identified to be a formal successor.
This can be seen as a 'coup d'etat at Mr. Kim's palace.'
I-4. Possible Military Revolt by Elder Son
Kim Jong Nam is not just giving in to his younger brother.
The position occupied by the elder son Nam has not been revealed. He was said to have been the Chairman of the Commuter Council and responsible for formulating strategy for developing information technology.
It was also reported that Num had alliances with young Labor Party members as well as the military. North Korean organizations in Japan are also under his control. They are the largest supporters of Mr. Kim Jong Nam.
The situation of Kim Jong Nam is similar to the situation faced by his father Kim Jong Il when he took power. At that time, Kim Song Ye, wife of late leader Kim Il Sung, had power and attempted to have her younger son, Kim Pyong Il, take over. However, elder son Kim Jong Il removed all military men associated with his young brother and captured control over the military with Oh Jing Yu, the Minister of People's Army. The elder brother sent his young brother to Finland as the Ambassador, which meant that he took power by removing his younger brother as well as his mother.
The classmates of Kim Jong Il at the Kim Il Sung University occupy important military posts and are called the 'second generation of the revolution.' Most of them are supporting Mr. Kim's elder son Kim Jong Nam.
A dangerous situation would arise if the group supporting younger brother Kim Jong Chol as well as his mother Ko and the group who support elder brother Kim Jong Nam got into a power struggle.
Katsumi Sato, President of Current Korean Affairs said, "Kim Jong Il will choose his successor. Currently, Ms. Ko is gaining power and Kim Jong Nam is being pushed into the corner. It was reported that Kim Jong Nam was considering a revolt with his military men in Pyongyang. It was rumored that he had already hired hit men in Macao. The question is how the military will move when he executes it."
The reality of North Korea is that, ignoring the fact that the nation is suffering from famine and a cold winter, the government is rapidly developing nuclear weapons and missiles using money raised in foreign countries. Mr. Kim is looking for the right time to launch a Tepodong 2 missile from his residential palace.
It is almost certain that the missile will be aimed at Japan.
They eat very well.
They also drink and carouse fastidiously, too.
The people starve.
Has it ever been any different since the founding of communism in 1917 for the elite classes?
As interesting as this article is, I think that it misses the point. The difference between North Korea under the leadership of Kim Jong Nam and Kim Jong Chol are negligible, so who wins the succession is a virtual non-issue. The point is that these people sit atop an organization that has interests that will soon diverge sharply from the Kim family.
Regime survival is crucial not just to Kim, but to the ruling elite, officials, and their families. They have two motives:
One - Keep the regime, as long as possible.
Two - Bring it down in a way that pins all the blame on Kim.
What they want to avoid is the hangman's noose. Kim knows that he is a dead man if the regime falls, so he has only one option, regime survival. This means that, in order to keep the support of his elite class, he needs to make sure that they are inclined to support option one, and view option two as too much of a risk.
Nuclear weapons are they key to this, because they make up for conventional military shortcomings, and make a military option against the South seem plausible. Kim won't give up the nuclear card, ever, because without it, isn't strong enough to keep his ducks in a row. They know that their country is falling apart, and see nuclear weapons as a tool to keep the machine running.
The problem with this course of action is that it is incredibly risky to all involved, even if it succeeds. Kim Jong Il, as Kim Il Sung before him, has become a diety in Korean political folklore. You can't kill god, and expect the people to take it sitting down. There was chaos enough when old Kim died. Young Kim isn't half the despot his old man was, and makes up for it in brutality. The shockwaves from a coup would reverberate among the elites (even though the common people may not even learn of it), and could doom the new leader from the start. Were the battle to be open, with military units clashing openly, the whole state could collapse.
But you are right; even more stories will filter out and then stream out; the world will feel like the Americans liberating Bergen-Belsen.
Just think that these horrible things are occuring right as we talk.
It is almost certain that the missile will be aimed at Japan.
Can one of you help me with this ? Would the intent be an overfly to make a point, or an actual attack?
Everything about this regime seems goofier and goofier. Possibly the most inscrutable gruop of kooks in the world. Seems like the nukes are like a scepter, a symbol of power. Shades of Return to Planet of the Apes where they worshiped the Bomb.
... sigh ...
I remember when this fat little dog, Nam, was kicked out of Japan a couple of years back.
Yes, the N. Korean document extolling Kim Jong-Chol's mother is circulating in S. Korean conservative internet sites. I have not read Monthly Korea's article yet.
I do not know much about Kim Jong-Nam's power base. But if he has as much power as this article suggests, epecially inside N. Korea, the regime change in N. Korea can be made easier. We should try our best to apply external pressure to N. Korean regime in order to engender some kind of coup or regime change, for there appears to be no other way of reversing the current N. Korean policy.
Even if Kim Jong-Nam, Kim Jong-Il and Kim Jong-Chol are little different from one another now, the outbreak of power struggle will change the attitude of at least one of them. At least one of them can suddenly embrace a policy which is a polar opposite of the current one, purely out of political necessity.
This whole event, if it arise, could be nerve-wracking to N. Korea's neighor. But such a scare seems inevitable, given the nature of N. Korean regime. There is a real small chance that it will be done surgically without much collateral damage, if we are really lucky.
Let us hope that this potential conflict inside the N. Korean reigme is the key to solve the current crisis without incurring horrendous damages.
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