Feb 22, 2003
On Feb. 21, rumors continued to sweep the world that the war would not begin until mid-March. The continuing theme is that British Prime Minister Tony Blair has literally begged the White House to seek a second resolution, even if it means putting off the war until mid-March. Blair is said to fear that he would be forced from office by his own party if there is war without a second resolution. The administration has worked strenuously to corroborate the story, with President George W. Bush himself, speaking on background, saying that a new resolution would be tabled next week, and U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell also indicating that the United States has agreed to give Iraq until mid-March.
What is odd is that while all of these backgrounders are pouring out, there has been no categorical statement that the war would not begin until a second U.N. resolution is in place. Nor is there any indication that the second resolution has any chance of passing. Indeed, France is trying to organize a group veto --- one that would include Russia and China -- and shows no inclination publicly of giving up the fight.
While all of this is going on, preparations for war are reaching their culmination. U.S. forces in the region have reached the 200,000 count, and U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has said the forces in theater are sufficient to initiate war. The Iraqis are intensifying their redeployment of forces and are delivering warnings to Kuwait and other nations cooperating with the United States that they face massive retaliation by Iraq in the event of war. Iraqi rocket-launchers -- those that are being detected by U.S. intelligence, at least -- are creeping south and being attacked. The nighttime sky over Kuwait is filled with U.S. aircraft. During 1991, in the days leading up to the war, U.S. aircraft would scramble, form up and charge the Iraqi border, then change course suddenly before penetrating Iraqi air space. One night, they didn't reverse course, and the war began. We seem to be in that stage here as well.
The Turks appear to be positioning for war as well. About 7,000 troops from Turkey's Second Army Corps have crossed the border at Hakkari and Sirnak and are deployed about eight miles inside Iraqi territory. The Iranians, equally concerned about the course of the war, have deployed about 5,000 troops in northern Iraq, and U.S. troops are filtering publicly into Turkey in small numbers, at least.
The Iraqi and Iranian movements are completely understandable. In the event of war, they want to be able to control access to their own territory by refugees and Kurdish forces. Moreover, as a contingency, each wants to be in a position to control events inside of Iraq if circumstances require and opportunities offer themselves. As war approaches, these moves are to be expected. They could be deploying in anticipation of a war in three weeks or sooner. Humanitarian groups now are pulling their personnel out of Iraq -- including the United Nations, which has ordered half its staff of humanitarian workers in Iraq to leave.
The crisis in U.S.-Turkish relations appears to be clearing up. Turkey's foreign minister said today that "a broad agreement" had been reaching with the United States on basing U.S. troops in Turkey. However, final agreement might be days off. So we continue to view the situation as one in which any agreement will either come too late for any effect on any phase of the war other than occupation, or in which U.S. forces have already been deployed.
The next week will be truly critical. If the United States and Britain do introduce a resolution at the United Nations, it will quickly emerge if the proposal has any chance of passing at all. If it does not, then Washington and London will be at the decision point. One option will be to delay until March -- useful if those two weeks achieve anything. Another option will be to accept the negative vote and go anyway. A third option will be to forget about the war. And the final option will be not to table a resolution at all, continue to dangle its impending introduction and then attack without clear warning.
Next week, we come down to those choices.
