Posted on 02/11/2003 9:28:22 PM PST by NormsRevenge
If Iraq attacks Israel in response to a U.S. assault, Israel's citizens will not be expected to sit in sealed rooms or shelters on and off for weeks, as they did in the previous war in the Gulf in 1991. This time, the defense establishment is determined not to have a repeat scenario of the Gulf War.
"What happened last time will not happen again," the heads of the defense establishment stress.
At the most, IDF officers predict, the authorities will declare an emergency situation for a few days, after which the United States will eliminate the missile threat from western Iraq.
During this time, relatively few missiles are expected to be launched. In any event, the IDF top brass emphasize, the chances of Iraq launching missiles at Israel this time remain slim.
Other scenarios, perhaps more threatening, are more likely, according to some military sources. First and foremost, they express concerns about an Iraqi or al Qaida attempt to carry out a huge terror attack with non-conventional weapons. Despite this, the defense establishment is preparing primarily for the familiar scenario of an Iraqi missile landing in Israel.
The following is the planned course of action if a missile is launched at Israel:
l A missile launch: At this stage, neither the Israeli nor the western intelligence services have concrete evidence pointing to the existence of missiles in the west of Iraq. The assumption is that if Iraq does launch a missile, it will do so from its western regions, where the Americans are also focusing their efforts to foil any launches.
In any case, the distance from the assumed launching sites to the center of Israel is about 600-700 kilometers. A Scud missile can cover that distance in six minutes, or seven at the most. The Americans promise that just before the battle starts, their satellites will cover the launching area 24 hours a day. Information of a traced launching will pass immediately to the General Staff's command bunker in Tel Aviv, with the help of the United States' liaison officers in Israel. The process is reportedly much more efficient than in the previous war.
Within 90 seconds, Israel will receive the information on a missile launch, and the General Staff will have another 90 seconds or so to decide whether to operate the alarm system before the expected landing. The sirens can, therefore, be operated about three minutes before the missile lands; hence the instruction to the public to reach a shelter within a three-minute range from home.
As the sirens are activated, the IDF will simultaneously send a signal to all radio and television stations enabling the immediate broadcast of the password "Iron Shield" (replacing "Viper" from the previous war in Iraq) on the radio and a slide saying "Alert" on television. The broadcast breakthrough will take place at the same time on all satellite and cable channels as well. After about five minutes of screening the slide and preliminary instructions - such as enter the protected space, shelters or sealed chambers - the broadcast will be handed over to the IDF spokesman for a short announcement and from there will pass to the Home Front command studio.
At this stage, every network will choose whether to make use of the Home Front command's broadcast, providing mainly interviews with experts and advice to the public, or to return to its own news programs.
l About four minutes before a missile lands, it is expected to be picked up by the Arrow missile's Green Pine radar system. Together with the data from the satellite, the radar may enable spotting the missile's estimated landing site at a relatively early stage. Then, the Home Front commander can decide in advance which of the 10 zones Israel was divided into will receive the safety instructions. For instance, if a missile is expected to land in the south, the residents of the north may well be "exempt" from the instructions. But since a volley of missiles may be launched, possibly resulting in missiles landing in more than one zone, it is likely that the instructions will be relayed to all the zones at first.
The moment Green Pine identifies the missile, "the first active defense effort" will begin - an attempt to launch Arrow and Patriot missiles to intercept the Iraqi missile. Two Arrow batteries are deployed today in Palmahim and Ein-Shemer. The IDF estimate that two Arrow missiles fired from the two batteries have a 90 percent chance of intercepting a Scud missile.
The Patriot, on Israeli, American and German batteries (the latter arrived at the Ashdod Port yesterday), will serve as a back-up to the Arrow, directed mainly at missiles penetrating Israeli air space on a relatively low course. The Patriot is also supposed to act together with other anti-aircraft weapons, like the Hawk missiles, to intercept enemy aircraft.
l From the moment a missile lands, a Home Front network of observation points, spread throughout the country and operated mainly by reserve soldiers, will try to track it down. The IDF will also receive reports from the police, local authorities and citizens. The assumption is that in populated areas, there will be no difficulty in rapidly tracing the landing spot. At this stage, the Home Front will allow people in areas far from the landing site to leave their sealed rooms.
Special teams will be sent to the estimated landing site, receiving more detailed instructions on their way. Consisting mainly of reserve soldiers, the teams will try to determine whether the missile's warhead is conventional, biological, chemical or - as in the Gulf war - concrete. The teams will also try to estimate the warhead's size and the damage to the environment.
In the event of a chemical warhead, the identification process is simpler and can be done on the ground. In contrast, a biological weapon is hard to identify and the process is relatively long. But the Home Front hopes it will be possible at least to assume when a certain warhead is biological and act accordingly.
l Home Front medical teams, Magen David Adom squads and fire fighters will be called to the site at the same time as the special identification teams. The Home Front's rescue unit will also arrive at a later stage. The forces will evacuate the wounded. If the warhead fails to explode, bomb squad teams will neutralize it.
l The next steps depend on the warhead's identification. If it is conventional - the Home Front believes this can be ascertained within about 30 minutes - the commander will decide on releasing all the residents in the area from the protected spaces, although they may be instructed to remain at home so as not to get in the way of evacuating the wounded. Residents of areas further away will be released even earlier.
In case of a chemical warhead, which is also expected to be identified in the same time, a decision will be made according to the kind of material and weather conditions such as wind and humidity. If the substance is of the kind that evaporates rapidly, it is likely that residents will be asked to remain in the protected spaces.
If the substance is relatively durable, the Home Front will have to decide where it is more dangerous for the hit area's residents - at home or outside. A large part of the instructions will be given on television, where the Scud hit zones will be shown, together with computerized maps. In any event, a hit area can be defined by a few streets, which will receive localized treatment, while the rest of a large city, such as Tel Aviv, can resume routine activity.
In case of chemical weapons, the main task on hand will be to ensure the swift distribution of medication. On the other hand, medicine for biological dangers can be administered within 48 hours from the hit time. The IDF has combat units trained in fast distribution of medication to civilians. At the same time, the IDF and relevant local authority will have to decide whether to evacuate residents from areas that are hit to other towns.
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