Posted on 02/10/2003 7:37:50 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster
So much of the Nobel committee's "glorious work" has been tainted... Arafat... Carter... Kim... where does it end and when will they get a clue?
Han dynasty of China had the similar experience with Xiong-nu tribe.
VRN
Realpolitik only if it can change the situation rather than keeping the beast on hold. Kim Dae-Jung ended up helping N. Korea allocate more resources to upgrade their missiles and nukes. More chips for N. Korea to bargain away in the future at higher prices.
I did not know that paying endless tribute is your way of solving a problem. N. Korea won't change unless she has to. That is a quite realistic assumption no matter what they say.
There's no difference as far as I can tell.
First, Kim gave them much more than we are supposed to. Second, he gave them in cash, not in terms of grains or heating oil.
It created a bad habit much worse. N. Korea thinks that acting suicidal can guarantee more money delivered in cash in secret without any questions being asked.
So N. Korea is free to spend it on making more bargaining chips or only rewarding a small number of loyal elites rather than starving public, away from prying eyes.
Who does Kim Jong Il think is the greatest long term threat? I don't think it is the US - the US is a tool to an end, i.e. the transition of North Korea. I think he is worried about China, which eventhough has seriously toned down its own rhetoric (since joining the WTO), will for the foreseeable future pose the most significant threat to the Korean peninsular, whether it be military or economic. Japan doesn't count - they are hated because of history, but they are a minor strategic entity. My prediction (!) is that Kim Jong Il wants a united nuclear Korea as protection from a growing China (I won't mention flashpoints such as the Spratley's). He neither seems irratic, nor mad to me. I always feel that when journalists start using such words, it is because they have failed to come up with an analytical theory/ don't have a clue. Kim Jong Il's methods may be scary, but he knows what he wants...
VRN
N. Korea does not bargain with good faith. That has been clear from the start. I do not favor the collpase of N. Korea as a nation but the current regime has shown no sign of pulling successful economic reform. So it may have to be replaced.
The problem with N. Korea is that it refuses to change its system in any meaningful way. At best, it will do a marginal change in glacial pace. In the meantime, N. Korea wanted to survive as northern steppe nomads used to do. Extorting tributes from well-off countries.
It all stems from the regime's fear of internal collapse once the change is under way. It wants an economic reform while still keeping its tight control on population, including the control of infomration flow and human contact from outside. That is what the reigme is afraid most, not American bombs. Even Chinese system is too dangerous for them, in their views. The regime caters to its oversized military, too. Unless their control is looasened and the military is reduced in its size, there will be no effective economic reform.
United Korea does not need N. Korean help for nukes. S. Korea has been trying to have one since '70's. Its nuke program was clandestinely alive until Kim Dae-Jung killed it. S. Korea, if she chooses to, can develop her missile and nuke programs to deter potential regional threats like China.
All S. Korea wants is for N. Korea to bait America in order to get tributes and negotiate away one bargaining chips(current missiles and nukes) while making better ones for future bargain as I stated. N. Koreans have already enough to destroy S. Korea, and other surrounding region with missiles, chemical and biological weapons. It also has huge conventional force.
The whole crisis comes from the fear that disastorous economic situation and gradual N. Korean general population's exposure to outside world will doom the regime from within, when you get down to the root cause.
Because of N. Korea backed themselves so hopelessly into a corner, there is no easy way out of it.
Finally, I am not one of those who see N. Korea as insane. Their action is all calculated, as you said. They have practiced it since 60's. But they are going for increasingly slimmer odds now. This act also entails a lot of risk to themselves and their neighoring countries. I always doubted that this N. Korean problem will end in some orderly fashion with minor bumps along the way. Whichever way N. Korean reigme plays it, it will give us a great scare even if there would be no shooting war. It is their style.
I've heard of the S. Korean nuke programme - the benefit of the North's nukes would not be techoological, but political as the North has more or less declared that it is a nuclear weapons state. Once the closet is opened it is much harder to close (the only sucess being South Africa & Ukraine (the 'stans don't really count as they never had the expertize))- by not taking action, a united Korea gets recognized in the nuke club an can claim it as self-protection. It's clear that having nukes pays dividents, I don't see a united Korea giving up such major political factor. What's your take one my point about future stregic threats (real or percieved), i.e. China much more of a threat than Japan?
VRN
China had not annoyed Koreans with the comments of their forays into the Korean War or other previous encroachments while Japanese political establishment has always made a point to show their view that the Japanese occupation of Korea was OK. So China has a slight advantage now. But that could disappear if Chinese would become overbearing. If a Korean is left with 10 Chinese, Chinese usually get bold and say things like, "Korea should have been part of China a long time ago. Why are you still holding out ?" Their overexpansive nationalism is something to worry about.
I do not think that China would keep growing as she is now. Both Chinese and Japanese economies will collapse at some point in the near future. Japan will turn more aggressive. China could turn aggressive but she could be also split up in the ensuing chaos. If these happens, Korean economy would suffer, too.
Who will be the more threatening to Korea will be difficult to tell. If neither is particularly stronger, Korea may stay neutral.
China had not annoyed Koreans with the comments of their forays into the Korean War or other previous encroachments while Japanese political establishment has always made a point to show their view that the Japanese occupation of Korea was OK. So China has a slight advantage now. But that could disappear if Chinese would become overbearing. If a Korean is left with 10 Chinese, Chinese usually get bold and say things like, "Korea should have been part of China a long time ago. Why are you still holding out ?" Their overexpansive nationalism is something to worry about.
I do not think that China would keep growing as she is now. Both Chinese and Japanese economies will collapse at some point in the near future. Japan will turn more aggressive. China could turn aggressive but she could be also split up in the ensuing chaos. If these happens, Korean economy would suffer, too.
Who will be the more threatening to Korea will be difficult to tell. If neither is particularly stronger, Korea may stay neutral.
Sorry for the double post of the previous reply. The network was slow.:)
Well, the slow progress on the construction of nuke powerplant is also partly due to problems at the N. Korean work site. For example, S. Koreans had to feed N. Korean workers from their pockets because they were poorly fed and could not work effectively. The delay could have been addressed properly if everything else was alright politically. But they continued to break promises and deadlines on many matters. They were also busy developing nukes in a place like Paskistan just as Germans did in the Soviet Union after WWI. I heard it was in the Soviet Union where Germans perfected the Blitzkrieg tactics. They also have a few suspected sites which they never allowed outsiders to inspect. I doubt that they all did this to press Americans/S. Koreans on the delay in building the nuke powerplant constructions.
Regs,
VRN
Chinese do take a long view. However, they are relatively new to the capitalist game. And they are in a hurry to make up the loss of 150 years. Their inexperience and impatience(desperation) create a problem like potential banking crisis, which is more than a theoretical possibility. Transition of economy from one system to another is always hard contrary to views of some American economists.
China can also count on a lot of expatriate expertise - "the motherland needs you". For example, many Indians left and made it big in the States (co-founder of Sun is indian etc.), now that the Indian government has decided to support the local IT industry, it has been much easier to lure back some of this expertise. The added bonus being that an expat can make much more money back home where there are real opportunities, than abroad. This all depends on the local bureacracy of course, but I have been hearing over the radio more and more stories of expats leaving the US/West and setting up sucessful businesses in China. Plus, as far as I know, I think there are certain basic minima on banking transparency/responsiblity that have to be met before being allowed to join the WTO. Either way, we will know within the next decade or so whether China has "made it".
Have you seen this?:
N. Korea's Neighbors Unmoved By Threats
VRN
The Onion's Take on the North Korean Issue
VRN
People are used to N. Korean antics. A majority feels that it is like the last time, a lot of noise, but no real disaster. On top of that, the younger generation of S. Korea who thinks that N. Koreans are just misunderstood friends believe that, even if there is a shooting war, N. Korea won't attack S. Korea. They think that the fireworks will be only against Americans and Japanese. I find such an attitude worrisome. Especially, S. Korean navy boats had a shootout with encroaching N. Korean navy boats last June, taking many casualties.
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