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RE #16

Chinese do take a long view. However, they are relatively new to the capitalist game. And they are in a hurry to make up the loss of 150 years. Their inexperience and impatience(desperation) create a problem like potential banking crisis, which is more than a theoretical possibility. Transition of economy from one system to another is always hard contrary to views of some American economists.

Well, this whole 'captialism' plan goes back as far as China's rapprochement with Nixon. Sure, plenty of chance of them screwing it up, but I don't think so. One of the reasons why I lean towards this view was when China joined the WTO. Everyone was supprised how active China was in making proposals and suggestions as soon as it joined - they had expected China to be fairly quiet 'to learn the ropes'.

China can also count on a lot of expatriate expertise - "the motherland needs you". For example, many Indians left and made it big in the States (co-founder of Sun is indian etc.), now that the Indian government has decided to support the local IT industry, it has been much easier to lure back some of this expertise. The added bonus being that an expat can make much more money back home where there are real opportunities, than abroad. This all depends on the local bureacracy of course, but I have been hearing over the radio more and more stories of expats leaving the US/West and setting up sucessful businesses in China. Plus, as far as I know, I think there are certain basic minima on banking transparency/responsiblity that have to be met before being allowed to join the WTO. Either way, we will know within the next decade or so whether China has "made it".

Have you seen this?:

N. Korea's Neighbors Unmoved By Threats

VRN