Quite.
Regards, Ivan
Posted on 02/10/2003 4:17:12 PM PST by MadIvan
Following the success of Colin Powell's address to the United Nations last week, the opponents of the American coalition against Saddam Hussein now propose to flood Iraq with weapons inspectors and UN peacekeepers.
To speak of the aptly named "Project Mirage" as a "Franco-German plan" would be to dignify what is no more than a back-of-an-envelope wheeze, floated by the German foreign minister, Joschka Fischer, with a nod and a wink from his French counterpart, Dominique de Villepin. Its main purpose is prophylactic: not to prevent Saddam from deploying his weapons, but to sabotage Anglo-American preparations to disarm him.
Had this been a serious initiative, rather than a spanner in the works, Saddam himself would need to have been consulted (it seems he was not) and consideration given to the question of whether it would be wise, on the eve of war, to hand the Iraqi dictator thousands of blue-helmeted hostages.
To concentrate on the obvious flaws is, however, to miss the real significance of this scheme. Paris and Berlin are playing for time because events are not going their way. The prospect that alarms them is that the war will happen, sooner rather than later; that the American-led coalition will win quickly; that a democratic Iraq will create a new strategic balance throughout the region; and that Franco-German political influence and commercial interests, in the Middle East and beyond, will be diminished.
At the Wehrkunde conference in Munich, Mr Fischer and Donald Rumsfeld, the American defence secretary, each posed a question. Mr Fischer asked: "Why now?" To this Mr Rumsfeld had already given his answer: the threat from rogue states that sponsor terrorism has never been more acute, Resolution 1441 is the latest of many demanding that Iraq be disarmed, and, at least since September 11, 2001, America has been ready to enforce the UN's will. Mr Rumsfeld, too, asked Mr Fischer a question: "The threat is there to see . . . what will we do about it?" To this, Mr Fischer had no convincing answer.
There was no answer, either, in Berlin, Paris or Brussels to another question from Mr Rumsfeld: "Turkey is an ally, an ally that is risking everything . . . How can you refuse it help?" The determination to postpone war at any price has now led the governments of Germany, France and Belgium to put the future of the Atlantic alliance at risk by vetoing Turkey's request for military assistance against an Iraqi counter-attack in the event of war.
There is no precedent for such a veto, offending as it does against the spirit of Nato, which was originally created to protect democracy in Europe from Soviet aggression. Now Turkey, the only genuine democracy in the Islamic world, needs Nato's help against a murderous enemy. France, Germany and Belgium have refused permission even for defensive military planning. Their gesture will have little practical impact, as the Pentagon has promised to supply Turkey on a bilateral basis with the Patriot missiles, Awacs aircraft and other materiel it has requested.
How much lasting damage, though, is being done to Nato? Mr Rumsfeld's response to the veto was cool: "There are 19 countries in Nato. So it's 16-3." He has repeatedly pointed to the shift in Nato's centre of gravity, and is right to do so. Nato's expansion to the east, accomplished without the predicted Russian paranoia, means that France and Germany are no longer able to encompass the dismantling of Nato, even supposing that were their intention. The EU's rapid reaction force - neither rapid, nor reactive, nor forceful so far - is unlikely to inspire the newer Nato members with confidence. For the foreseeable future, Nato will be the only show in town - and certainly the only aegis under which American forces will remain in Europe that is likely to receive support from the US Congress.
What, then, are they playing at in the chancelleries of Paris, Berlin and Brussels? Some of the middle-aged salon revolutionaries who now hold power may dream of reliving the glories of 1968, and the pacific ideals of many demonstrators are doubtless impeccable. But the motives of Jacques Chirac and Gerhard Schröder are more machiavellian. An opinion poll yesterday shows that 57 per cent of Germans agree with the proposition: "The United States is a nation of warmongers." French attitudes are not dissimilar. The Chiracs and the Schröders are riding a wave of anti-Americanism that they have done nothing to discourage. We are all paying for their abdication of leadership.
Quite.
Regards, Ivan
COMING SOON TO A THEATRE IN IRAQ! 
RERUNS WILL BE SEEN IN IRAN, SYRIA, AND NORTH KOREA IF THEIR DICTATORS ARE STILL IN POWER!
France and Germany panic at the upcoming loss of big time customers!
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