Specifically, in central Serbia, the drop is 35.3%, in Voyvodina the relative drop is 22%, with an average Serbia-wide (not counting Kosovo) drop in Croat population of 25.1% since 1991. The croat population in Serbia is now 0.94% (which represents 70,602 souls).
The drop of the Croatian population follows similar changes for just about every other ethnic group except for Serbs (whose numbers were augmented by refugees from Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo) and Gypsies.
One of the largest statistical dives is evidenced in the so-called undeclared "Yugoslavs" whose demographic change is about 75%. Certainly, neither the Croats nor any other group that has experienced precipitious drop was a result of forced expulsions, as was the case with changes of the Serb populations elsewhere.
If we only knew exactly how many of the population entered Serbia from other parts of former Y between the 1991 census and the 2002 census and how many of each ethnicity, then we'd have a better picture.
UNHCR showed 650,000 refugees entered Serbia from Croatia and BiH as of December 1995. UNHCR estimated about 527,000 of those refugees from Croatia and BiH whom they consider "persons of concern" still remained in Serbia as of December 2002. The UNHCR figures are an undercount because they don't count people who never registered with UNHCR (many didn't) nor those who joined relatives or otherwise "integrated into society."
The Serb government figure for refugees entering Serbia between 1 January 1991 and 31 December 1995 is 705,622. It also says there are an additional 200,000 registered internally displaced persons who entered Serbia in 1999 from Kosovo and remain (an additional 29,000 in Montenegro).
I'm really not sure how to estimate the actual number of people who entered Serbia from BiH, Croatia and Kosovo after the 1991 census and remained there for the 2001 census. For the purposes of this post, I'll use an estimate of 750,000 (some NGOs claim it's more like a million, but they're trying solicit funds for "the poor refugees" and "the children"). If anyone has a more accurate figure, please let me know.
I know all these 750,000 are not Serbs, but the vast majority are Serbs, so for rough estimating purposes, I'll treat them as though they are all Serbs.
Okay, total population of Serbia (minus Kosovo) according to the 1991 census was 7,822,795. In 2002, the total was 7,498,001 for a net population loss of 324,794, or 4.15%. Setting aside the 750,000 refugees, the population loss was 1,074,794, or 13.74% Some loss is attributable to the already-low birth rate of 1.74 in 1990, which declined even further over the past decade to 1.48 in 1999. Since 1992, the death rate has exceeded the birth rate. A decline in population would have been expected from this alone, but surely wouldn't have accounted for more than 3.5%???
I can't find any firm figures on migration out of Serbia (other than those who were refugees to start with and those figures aren't solid, either). I've seen estimates of 5%-10% over the course of the decade. If anyone knows the actual figures, please post them. UNHCR says 9,000 ethnic Hungarians in Vojvodina emigrated to Hungary between 1991 and 1995; the Hungarian State Department folks say unofficially that an additional 6,000 - 9,000 draft-dodgers (males of various ethnicities of military age, mainly younger ones) emigrated from Serbia to/through Hungary that they know of.
Serbs: According to the 1991 census, there were 6,045,000 Serbs in Serbia, constituting 77.27% of the total population. The 2002 census shows 6,200,000, or 82.69% of the total population, a gain of 155,000 or 2.56%.
Taking the estimated 750,000 refugees out of the equation, Serbs constitute 80.76% of the non-refugee population, and there were 595,000 fewer non-refugee Serbs in 2002, a decline of 9.84%. (Again, this is VERY rough, because all the refugees are not Serbs, and I don't know the actual number of refugees, just using that 750,000 guesstimate.)
Croats: In 1991, there were 93,874 Croats in Serbia, or 1.2%. The 2002 census lists 70,602 Croats constituting 0.94% of the population, a loss of 23,272 or 24.92%. Again, disregarding the 750,000 and assuming for estimation purposes that they are all non-Croats, then Croats account for 1.05% of the non-refugee population.
I could continue on with Hungarians, Roma, etc., but since it would just be rough estimates, won't. Anyway, when you look at the picture in terms of the non-refugee population, it's rather a different picture, isn't it? There is still a larger net loss percentage-wise of minorities like Croats and Hungarians than of Serbs (indicating they felt social/political pressure to leave, and/or that they could claim such as minorities to get the heck out of an economic Dodge), but Serbs lost population, too.
If you can give more figures, I'd appreciate it. It would be interesting.
It would also be interesting to know when and why people left Serbia.