Estimating the cost of a war on Iraq (up to $20K for each and every US family sez prof)

ELEANOR HALL: What sort of things have you considered in calculating the cost of this possible new war in Iraq?

WILLIAM NORDHAUS: One of the things that came out of if that I was quite surprised by was if you actually look at the costs, that the military costs tend to be a very small fraction of the total cost. So when I, when I reckoned the total costs, they ranged, they include obviously the direct military costs, but in addition would be the post-war costs, occupation, peacekeeping, rebuilding and so on.

And then particularly in the case where it would be a protracted and unfavourable war, there would be costs to the economy of higher oil prices and also potentially of an economic recession.

WILLIAM NORDHAUS: Well, at the low end of the scale, about US$100 billion of which about half would be the military costs. But at the high end, the protracted and unfavourable end, the military costs would be in the order of US$150 billion, but the overall total cost would be just under US$2 trillion or US$2,000 billion.

WILLIAM NORDHAUS: Yes. People say, what does that number mean to me as a person? There are so many zeros that I can't keep track of them. So one way to think of it would be for the average family, and we're talking about numbers over the next decade or so, and so at the low end that would be about US$1,000 a family, but at the high end it would be about $20,000 a family over the next decade. So we're talking about pretty big numbers.

I see ... and there is no cost to maintaining and paying for the Army, Air Force, Marines, Coast Guard, and Navy in the event that there is no war. Between wars, the Armed Forces are laid-off (and unpaid) and all of their equipment is mothballed, so there is no cost to the country during periods of peace.

What a load of mush-and-bilgewater. It doesn't make any difference if the 1st Cav and 4th ID are sitting here at Fort Hood or if they are off spreading their version of "peace" in Iraq; or if the carriers are maneuvering off Hawaii or Australia or Japan; or if the Air Force wings are performing required routine flight ops over Nebraska or California. Other than the expenditure of munitions, probably nine-tenths of operational costs are the same whether sitting in place during peacetime or operating in a combat theater.

Bunkum ... pure bunkum.

William Nordhaus claims: "...at the high end...the military costs would be in the order of US$150 billion...[or] about $20,000 a family over the next decade."

Apparently, math is no longer a requirement for the study of economics.

Let's see, he claims that $150 billion would be the "high end" costs of the war and we currently have 105 million households in the U.S. That would be about $1,429 dollars per household (family), not the $20,000 Nordhaus claims. To be fair, he did say "over the next decade", so maybe Nordhaus was figuring the rest was interest? Not hardly, the interest rate to pay off $1,429 with $20,000 over 10 years would require an interest rate of 140%!

So how did Nordhaus come up with his numbers? Well, Prof. William Nordhaus is a professor of economics from Yale University. He is a vocal advocate for global warming "theory" and the Kyoto treaty and now he's become an instant expert on the war in Iraq. Does the label "leftist ideologue" come to mind?

You want to hold down the costs of this war? Simple, after the primary goals of the war have been met, take over the Iraqi oil fields, sell the oil and use the profits to pay off their war debt to us and use the rest to fund the rebuilding of Iraq's infrastructure, including schools, hospitals, roads, etc. As an added bonus, all contracts for the job of rebuilding Iraq will only be with American companies. After 5-10 years, they can have control of the oil fields back, we have no more war debt, American business is booming and Iraq is ready to join the 21st century as a modern western and free nation with a wealth of natural resources.

--Boot Hill

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