Bush to make his case Tuesday - imminent Iraq war and the U.S. economy to be central themes

WASHINGTON - President Bush addresses the nation Tuesday while facing a storm of conflicting crosswinds: rising public doubts cutting into his popularity, a stubbornly sluggish economy - and life-and-death decisions about war and peace.

He will use his annual State of the Union message to lay out a case against Saddam Hussein that could lead to war - sooner rather than later - with or without broad international support, aides said. But he will not ask for a declaration of war, saving that possibility for a future speech.

Mr. Bush will spend about half the time on domestic worries during his address to a joint session of Congress. He will continue to sell a new package of tax cuts that has sharpened political disputes with Democrats, many of whom see a newly vulnerable president who has slipped in the public opinion polls.

"This is his opportunity to address his critics as well as to set his agenda," said Bruce Buchanan, a professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin.

And while the president's remarks are designed mostly for his American audience, crises in Iraq and North Korea mean the world will be much more attentive when he delivers his prime-time speech Tuesday.

The speech, however, is but one step in what is shaping up as another extraordinary testing time for Mr. Bush, now at the midpoint of his first term.

"The next two or three weeks are an incredibly important time in this presidency," said Norman Ornstein, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.

It starts Monday in New York, where U.N. weapons inspectors will issue a new report and U.S. diplomats are still trying to convince a reluctant Security Council that military force is justified against Mr. Hussein because the Iraqi leader has refused to abandon his development of weapons of mass destruction.

But Russia, France and Germany, among other leery nations, say the administration has failed to make its case, and they want the inspectors to have more time in Iraq. Private U.N. discussions are expected to continue throughout the week, and beyond.

After he delivers his State of the Union speech, Mr. Bush on Friday will confer at Camp David with his staunchest ally, British Prime Minister Tony Blair, in what could be a pivotal summit. The two leaders may decide whether to move against Iraq without an additional U.N. mandate.

"I will let you know when the moment has come," Mr. Bush told reporters recently when one asked whether the nation was on the verge of war.

Mr. Bush will also spotlight domestic issues in his speech Tuesday, making another pitch for his 10-year, $674 billion economic program and pushing changes to the Medicare system.

"The president views the State of the Union as a chance to talk about big issues with the American people," said White House press secretary Ari Fleischer, "the big picture about where the country is and where he believes as president it ought to go."

Promoting the State of the Union address during his weekly radio address Saturday, Mr. Bush said: "Our nation faces many great challenges all at once. We will meet all of them with courage and steady purpose."

It will be Mr. Bush's second State of the Union address and his fourth appearance before Congress, now in Republican hands after the party's triumphs in the November mid-term elections. And the stakes remain high for Mr. Bush, who is determined to spend his newly replenished political capital as he looks ahead to a re-election campaign next year.

"He has grown increasingly comfortable as a podium performer, and he will take his best shot," said Mr. Buchanan, who has watched Mr. Bush since his days in Texas. "He projects the confidence and self-assurance that reassures people."

Still, Mr. Buchanan suggested, there's now a "large collection of controversial issues where a polished presentation alone probably won't be sufficient."

And the president is quite mindful of the circumstances, Mr. Fleischer said. "He approaches the process seriously, with his head down."

Iraq and the economy will share center stage in the ornate House chamber. But Mr. Fleischer said the president will also tour other world "hot spots" in his address, dwelling particularly on North Korea, which is proceeding again to develop nuclear weapons. And Mr. Bush is set to explain again why he's pursuing diplomacy in North Korea but threatening war against Iraq.

Increasingly, though, Democrats are targeting what they see, at best, as an inconsistent Bush foreign policy. And while Congress already has voted its approval for Mr. Bush to use force against Iraq, should diplomacy fail, Democrats and some Republicans continue to raise questions.

"This is the wrong war at the wrong time," asserted Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., adding that it would "distract America from the two more immediate threats to our security: the clear and present danger of terrorism and the crisis with North Korea."

Aides said Mr. Bush is aware of the risks involved in war but also cited the risks of giving Mr. Hussein the chance to develop chemical, biological and nuclear weapons. The threat of such weapons is especially acute in the wake of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, they said.

The State of the Union is an opportunity "to provide the necessary context and explanation only a commander in chief can deliver at this unique moment in history," said White House communications director Dan Bartlett.

White House aides, however, insist the president will not let foreign policy problems distract him from the sagging economy, another source of anxiety among the American public.

In touting his new recovery plan, Mr. Bush will argue again that new tax cuts, including elimination of income taxes on stock dividends, would pump up the stock market and encourage businesses to create jobs.

He also will call for changes in the legal system, citing the rise in lawsuits and excessive jury awards as a further drag on the economy and again push his stalled energy program that has included oil and gas exploration in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

Like so many Bush policies, Democrats charge that the Republican president's plan favors the rich at the expense of the poor and middle class. And they say that the sheer size of the package will balloon the budget deficit and take money away from other crucial domestic needs.

Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle, D-S.D., said Mr. Bush's economic plan is unfair and "fiscally irresponsible," and has drawn bad reviews even from the business community.

"If there's a tax plan that does almost nothing for the little guy - and the big guy isn't all that excited about it either - the conclusion ought to be obvious," Mr. Daschle said. "It's time to get back to the drawing board."

Mr. Bush will devote part of his address to what aides call his "caring and compassion" agenda that has developed from one of the cornerstones of his 2000 campaign.

"The president still sees pockets of homelessness and despondency and addiction in our country," Mr. Fleischer said.

"He sees a federal government that has spent literally trillions of dollars since the Great Society to try to ameliorate these conditions. And yet, there are still millions who are still suffering that government programs have yet to reach."

In addition to a renewed call for more federal support of faith-based organizations, Mr. Bush is expected to talk about changing Medicare to give seniors a new benefit program for prescription drugs.

Still, there are critics who worry that the president's faith-based initiatives cross the constitutional division of church and state, and that his Medicare changes would benefit insurance companies over seniors who could be forced into health maintenance organizations.

Overall, on both the foreign and domestic fronts, Democrats sense openings to tackle Mr. Bush, whose job approval ratings in a variety of polls have fallen below 60 percent for the first time since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

Once reluctant to go after so popular a president, many Democrats - especially those seeking Mr. Bush's job in 2004 - have become noticeably more critical.

Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson, D-Dallas, said Mr. Bush's speech should be more about "the state of disunion," citing a "deteriorating economy, failing domestic policies and unsupported war."

"The United States of America cannot serve as world police, especially now when we are faced with a continuing battle for basic civil rights, the education of our children and the safety of our families right here at home," she said.

At the White House, though, aides point out that Mr. Bush still enjoys the support of more than half of Americans, who continue to give him strong marks as a leader.

But Mr. Bush's ultimate choice between war and peace will never hinge on public opinion polls, Mr. Fleischer said: "He will be guided by what he views in his role as commander in chief as necessary to protect the country."

"As much as the issues of war and peace are vital issues, this president will not - and has not - lost sight of the importance of domestic issues," Mr. Fleischer said.

Give 'em heck, President Bush !:

It will be Mr. Bush's second State of the Union address and his fourth appearance before Congress, now in Republican hands after the party's triumphs in the November mid-term elections. And the stakes remain high for Mr. Bush, who is determined to spend his newly replenished political capital as he looks ahead to a re-election campaign next year.
"He has grown increasingly comfortable as a podium performer, and he will take his best shot," said Mr. Buchanan, who has watched Mr. Bush since his days in Texas. "He projects the confidence and self-assurance that reassures people."
Still, Mr. Buchanan suggested, there's now a "large collection of controversial issues where a polished presentation alone probably won't be sufficient."
And the president is quite mindful of the circumstances, Mr. Fleischer said. "He approaches the process seriously, with his head down."

Iraq and the economy will share center stage in the ornate House chamber. But Mr. Fleischer said the president will also tour other world "hot spots" in his address, dwelling particularly on North Korea, which is proceeding again to develop nuclear weapons. And Mr. Bush is set to explain again why he's pursuing diplomacy in North Korea but threatening war against Iraq.

I heard he's not going to spend a lot of time talking about Iraq in his SOTU, but I hope what little time he does spend talking about it, he uses by correcting some of the rhetoric that's been floating around. For instance, he can start by reminding the whole world that the U.S. doesn't have to make the case for anything, that Iraq has to make its case and prove that it has disarmed.

I'm sick of hearing about the U.S. needing to make the case for something. We've made our case and the Security Council voted 15-0 on it, only now they're trying to renege. At this point, I think that's all Bush needs to concentrate on with respect to Iraq, in his SOTU.

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