THUNE/DASCHLE '04 SOUTH DAKOTA SENATE MATCHUP YIELDS 46-45 TOSSUP

Hotline Campaign Tip Sheet ^ | January 21, 2003 | Senate Edition

[ewing]

National GOP'ers jumped on the potential post 2004 results bandwagon with a poll to assess the mood.

They matched Thune against Daschle and it showed Daschle winning 46-45.

It showed Thune easily defeating Rep. Bill Janklow in a primary and defeating potential Democratic House nominee Stephanie Herseth by 10 points.

Governor Mike Rounds met with Thune last week, but there was no discussion of a job for him.

Thune is now weighing most prominently a consulting job that would keep him in the state.

[ewing]

#34 on todays agenda, Karl must be rubbing his hands in anticipation..

[chimera]

Oh, cripes, just what we need, another close race in SD involving Thune and a Rat. I think we know how that one will turn out...

(past performance could very well be an indicator of future results)

[mwl1]

Unless the GOP can scare Daschle into retirement, I still doubt that Thune will run... hope I am wrong.

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[ewing]

But this 'Rat is a former Majority Leader of the United States Senate.

[ewing]

Little Tommy has got to be considering retirement, almost losing to an unnanounced GOP challenger not in elected office?

[mwl1]

In fairness, it also needs to be said that a lot of moderates probably voted for Johnson because they thought that the RATS would maintain control of the Senate, thus preserving their other senator as majority leader. Boy were they stupid...now they are stuck with a RAT senator for another 6 years.

They won't be fooled again, and turnout in this heavily GOP state will be higher in a presidential year, which would help Thune and seriously hurt Daschle.

[JohnnyZ]

Daschle will run again, but remember George McGovern lost his bid for reelection in South Dakota, and Daschle will face a lot of "out-of-touch liberal" comparisons to McGovern if Thune runs and has a good chance to defeat him.

I think there are a couple of things helping Thune: the realization that Daschle is no longer and will not be majority leader, and thus both senators are in the minority; remorse at not voting for Thune wins him points from folks who'll go for him this time, as he is very popular; Thune representing the future against Daschle the past; George W. on the ballot for president especially against an Eastern liberal, or even just an Easterner (Dean, Kerry, Lieberman, Graham, even Edwards to some extent, pretty much anyone but Gephardt).

[ewing]

A W. landslide may be enough to take out Little Tommy as well.

[JohnnyZ]

turnout in this heavily GOP state will be higher in a presidential year, which would help Thune and seriously hurt Daschle.

That's a good point, and will help minimize the effect of the Indian vote; also, GOP Gov. Rounds is reaching out to them as well.

[JohnnyZ]

turnout in this heavily GOP state will be higher in a presidential year, which would help Thune and seriously hurt Daschle.

That's a good point, and will help minimize the effect of the Indian vote; also, GOP Gov. Rounds is reaching out to them as well.

[Free the USA]

fyi

[ambrose]

Ping.

[Wild Irish Rogue]

Wasn't there a poll, post election( Fox, perhaps) that showed that a lot of SDakotans only voted for Daschle,because he was ML? The post election poll, when he was no longer ML,showed a large erosion in votes for TD and a lot of voter remorse.

[Coop]

I'd still be very surprised if Thune, who could not defeat a vulnerable freshman during a GOP-trending election year, could knock off a popular Senate Minority Leader during a Presidential election year. Poll or no poll.

[Coop]

turnout in this heavily GOP state will be higher in a presidential year, which would help Thune and seriously hurt Daschle.

I disagree. Turnout during Presidential elections brings out the more ignorant voters, which favors Democrats. Even though the Dakotas are reliably GOP for Presidential votes, they currently have four Dem senators. Their voters have no problems splitting the ticket.

[eureka!]

Absent a real chance for the majority, methinks Tommy is done and won't run. It is so early though that speculation and polls mean little. See you around as the elections get closer....

[mwl1]

I think Daschle will seek re-election and this was indicated when he abandoned a presidential run.

[Coop]

Obviously if Dasshole retires then Thune would stand an excellent chance at capturing the open seat. But since the Dems rarely make things easy for the Pubbies...

[Captainpaintball]

Thune is a dishonorable loser. He obviously didn't want to win last time, why would he want to win this time?