The noose tightens.
Shane, do the citizens of Venezuela possess sufficient small arms to defeat the government?
Many of the rank & file military still with Chavez can't be relied on by Chavez whenever he attempts to utilize them in any grossly unconstitutional actions. Also, he needs to create 'excuses' to blunt the world criticism of any future heavy-handed actions. Or, he'd of already stormed the Opposition military based openly and denoucing him daily at the Altamira Plaza here...
http://www.militaresdemocraticos.com
...and also arrested all the political Opposition party leaders, taken over all the media, etc.
Also, even if the military went largely neutral, and while many Venezuelans are armed, they would be well outgunned to match the weapons Chavez has been issuing out to his 'Bolivarian Circles', the left-wing gangs that were key to unravelling the April coup attempt.
The top military that have left him recently, seen at that web site link above, also have commitments from over 22,000 still within Chavez ranks awaiting orders from their commanders on the outside to act. In the meantime, they continue to feed out intel to the Plaza, such as this that came in the second week of December:
Military informer reported, small unit of National Guard ordered by Cnel.(EJ) 2do. Comandante of the Reserve Orlando Zurita Ramirez, who was following orders originating by Chavez, to go to an armory to load up 750 FAL's along with 1.8 million rounds of ammo and transport them to poor neighborhood west of Caracas called "23 de Enero". There they were distributed to local gang of about 1,000 strong called "Caraoaica y Tupacamaro". This is across the street from the Presidential Palace.
Anyways, all of the above can evolve into a real bloody mess of a civil war. The only hope, without bloodshed, I can see, is to force Chavez to leave by exposing to all the world his support of terrorists and then having all nations censor and blockade his regime. Even that may not work, but it has not yet been tried to say for sure.
The USA govt and media should be forefront in this expose, but I'm afraid that the US govt will too readily embrace any solution (whether he stays or not) that'll assure stable oil supplies, and that expose will never really happen.
That would be a real shame because the Venezuelan people could be great allies to the USA, once Chavez regime was gone. According to the just published 2002 Global Attitudes Survey by the Pew Research Center in Washington; 82% there have a favorable opinion of the USA, and that is amongst the highest ratings of all the 44 countries surveyed. And, in regard to supporting the US led war on terrorism, 79% favor it while only 20% oppose it! (What's the current %'s for that question here in the USA?)
Clearly, no country in South America holds more promise for being a strong and effective ally and supporter of the USA, perhaps none better in this entire Hemisphere, *when* Chavez is gone and remnants of his regime are fully rooted out.
Also, though, there is no current government in this hemisphere that is a more "Clear & Present Danger" to the USA with the continuation and expansion of Hugo Chavez type initiatives. Unchecked, Chavez will be able to do throughout this hemisphere what Fidel has only dreamed/wished he could do!
-Shane