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Posted on 01/12/2003 12:01:23 AM PST by Brian Allen
Tony Blair has been warned by Cabinet ministers that he must take urgent steps to "sell" his military strategy on Iraq as he faces the threat of rebellion from Labour MPs and party members.
The Prime Minister is being urged to "hit the road" and undertake a nationwide tour explaining the need for military action to counter the growing threat of mass defections from party activists.
The stark message was delivered to the Prime Minister last week by three of his most intimate allies in the Cabinet: Tessa Jowell, the Culture Secretary, Hilary Armstrong, the Chief Whip, and Helen Liddell, the Scottish Secretary. Their warning over the scale of the revolt facing Mr Blair was supported by a Telegraph survey of Labour Party constituency chairmen which suggests that thousands of members will quit the party if Britain invades Iraq without a specific UN mandate.
Of 74 chairmen contacted, 69 per cent predicted that war with Iraq would prompt resignations among local members and five per cent admitted that they themselves would considering quitting. The survey also found that 89 per cent of chairmen opposed a war without a further UN resolution sanctioning the use of force against Saddam Hussein.
The extent of the damage already inflicted on Labour's membership will be revealed in official figures due out this spring. They are expected to show a further dramatic decline from the current official total of 270,000, down from a high of 405,000 in 1997.
One Cabinet minister said: "Tony really needs to do more to sell this to the party. A number of us have told him that he needs to hit the road and actually speak to members directly."
Mr Blair has said that he is "too busy" to undertake a nationwide roadshow on Iraq. However, the scale of his task in winning political support was underlined last night as senior MPs and military officers warned him that he did not have a mandate to go to war. Donald Anderson, the chairman of the Commons foreign affairs committee, said: "In a democracy one needs public backing for any war and the reality is that the public is still unconvinced."
Mr Anderson also served notice on the Prime Minister that MPs would rebel unless there was a second UN resolution explicitly authorising the use of force. "Parliamentary opinion needs facts and needs to be convinced that any action is in accordance with international law which means, in effect, a second UN Security Council resolution."
The unease over a possible invasion without a second UN resolution extends to senior military officers. One told The Telegraph: "The country doesn't have the stomach for a war in Iraq at the moment and frankly neither do many senior officers.
"That feeling will persist until it is clear there is no other option and all diplomatic courses have been exhausted. That means having the backing of the United Nations."
Mr Blair will attempt to regain the political initiative when he meets Hans Blix, the head of the UN weapons inspectors, at No 10 on Friday. In an effort to persuade the public of the need for action, Downing Street is to press Mr Blix to give further details of how Saddam is attempting to thwart inspectors. "We have to be clear that the onus is on Saddam to be pro-active in helping the inspectors, not to be negative," the Prime Minister's spokesman said.
Mr Blair was in Hanover last night for private talks with Gerhard Schr?der, the German chancellor, aimed at ending German opposition to military intervention. Germany took over one of the rotating seats on the UN Security Council this month. Their talks came as Donald Rumsfeld, the United States defence secretary, signed a deployment order sending a further 35,000 American troops to the Gulf region - the biggest single addition so far to the build-up of allied forces encircling Iraq. The troops will be in place by the end of the month, giving the Pentagon a combined land, naval and air strength about 100,000.
Quod Erat Demonstrandum?
So lets see, everyone in the UK is yipping and yapping about how they wont support Blair unless he has something like "proof" or a mandate.
The day or night that the bombs begin to fall I believe that Bush and Blair will go in front of thier citizens and finally show them and the world whatever "proof" it is that they have.
They must already have hard proof. It's the only scenario that makes any sense whatsoever.
See Bush Uses "Strategery" Against Iraq, the U.N. and the Democrats for my theory.
Hard enough for us, to be sure. However, no matter how hard, it won't be hard enough for Blair's left. For example, if there actually are found several finished nukes, they'll say that war wasn't justified because it was only several, nothing much. If poison gas is found, they'll say, that's nothing, everyone knew that. Besides, they'll say, the important thing was to get UN Security Council members who have real moral authority, such as Syria and Communist China, behind us in advance. Then there are the tin hats who will say we ourselves planted the WMD in Iraq.
Politically, the only way to justify an Iraq war after the fact is quick and total victory. But such is war that we can't be sure it will go quite that well, although there is reason to hope.
I know that this war is unpopular in Britain. Maybe we should help take Blair off the hook. How about this? Blair verbally endorses the war in Iraq but says that the UK will contribute the only the aircraft it has been already using to enforce the no fly zone. The reason Blair gives is that Britain has a responsibility to rescue the starving people of its former colony Zimbabwe, and so will be busy overthrowing Mugabe, effective immediately. Bush then endorses this division of military effort where the UK liberates Zimbabwe while the US liberates Iraq.
This would throw for a loop British leftists who argue against a show in Iraq on grounds that Zimbabwe is worse. Besides the situation in Zimbabwe, where Mugabe is starving millions living in regions where his political opponents, the Matebele tribe, live, is critical.
However -- and I'm no fan of that socialist bastard, believe me -- I sincerely doubt that such a man as Tony Blair would gamble himself and his party on a fool's debt.
Labour is calling for Blair to lay down his cards. I expect him and Bush to do just that quite soon. And Blair must be satisfied that the hand he is holding is strong enough to trump dissent and boost his prospects, or he would never have signed on.
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