Chinese Air Force Catastrophe

Strategypage.com ^ | December 21, 2002 | Jim Dunnigan

[John H K]

China is faced with a catastrophe in its air force. Thousands of J-6 and J-7 fighters 9 (as well as Q5, H5 and H6 bombers) are going be at the end of their useful lives in the next ten years. All of these aircraft are based on 1950s Russian designs. The J-6 is a Chinese copy of the Russian MiG-19, the J-7 a copy of the MiG-21. Since the end of the Cold War, China has been buying more modern Su-27 and Su-30 warplanes from Russia, as well as the technology needed to build them on their own. But Chinese industry has not been able to get up to speed on manufacturing such advanced aircraft. In ten years, China has bought or built only 150 of these new generation (roughly equal to the U.S. F-16 and F-15) aircraft. If that weren't bad enough, China has not yet modified these Russian designs to use Chinese built missiles. This is more of a problem than it appears. Russia is selling it's air-to-air missiles to just about anyone, including the United States. Chinese missiles are not sold so widely. This the U.S. would have an easier time dealing with the well known Russian missiles than with the more closely held Chinese designs. China continues to put money into upgrading their thousands of J-7 fighters. But these aircraft still suffer from unreliable engines and pilots who don't get enough flying time to be really effective. Moreover, China is not willing to throw a lot of money at the problem. But by 2010, the Chinese air force will shrink enormously as most of its older warplanes become too decrepit to fly.

[John H K]

Gee, since this isn't about the threat of Chinese paratroopers landing in Montana or something, can I post it on FR?

The Chinese have some serious military problems and they aren't getting better. No matter what you hear from the scaremongers on FR.

[b4its2late]

The Chinese have some serious military problems and they aren't getting better.

No need to worry. Around the time their planes start falling out of the air, another Clinton will be in the WH to come to their rescue..... (sitting here with tongue in cheek and hoping that's a funny).

[Stingray51]

1950's designs are completely worthless to China. I think they are correct in focusing on purchasing modern aircraft. The article says they have only 150 such aircraft. But if their goal is not so much to be able to project power overseas as it is to be able to resist US intervention against an attack on Taiwan, then perhaps they are correct in not placing too much priority on the acquisition of large numbers of modern fighters (as opposed to other, more asymetric systems such as anti-satellite weapons, anti-ship missiles, anti-rader AWACS busting missiles, conventional subs, and so forth).

[G Larry]

Your strategic perspective is so deep.....NOT!

This means China would be more apt to resort to NUCLEAR missiles earlier in a conflict, than they might if they had an effective Air Force.

[Magnum44]

This is why I don't worry too much when china claims they will have a man in space in the next two years. They may, but he will be spam in a can. They can't even get hightech terrestial systems to work. They are dreaming about conquering the moon.

[joesnuffy]

I've seen some of their fire drills...if thats any example...
Yeah its no biggie that they have taken over the Panama Canal
or that the Chinese Red Billonaire Li Ka-Shing is running it for them
Or that Hutchinson Whampoa is partnered with COSCO the marine arm of The People's Liberation Army
And has supplied Asian LA street gangs with weapons...and how many sleeper cell teams are already in place...
You tell em....just how paranoid they are.....
tell it to the Korean vets...who fought more Chinese troops than they did Korean...

[Digger]

Now the real threat to them would be for GW to stop an unbalanced trade deficit with them & bring manufacturing back here.

[Oberon]

This means China would be more apt to resort to NUCLEAR missiles earlier in a conflict, than they might if they had an effective Air Force.

I'm not certain the Chinese see this as a problem.

[pepsionice]

I think you are overlooking what the Chinese have been doing the past 10 years in the US. They have pushed thousands of their brightest students through the US educational system and have some extremely bright engineers now back in China. They also have various people working on stealing designs from European aircraft companies. Based on the massive US dollars flowing into China, they will have lots of capital to reverse-design F-16 capable aircraft and push the design further along. Lets face it...its the missiles of the future that are going to halt any major aggression. If you want to defeat US technology the cheapest way...work on missiles.

[rmvh]

Re your # 1..Chinese Air Force Catastrophe

Maybe...But I have heard this same line in the past and it was pure B.S.:

1939 relative to the Luftwaffe stuka and Me 109...1950 North Korea and China with their swept wing Mig 15 which flew unexpected rings around our styraight wing F-86.

Nice peacenik theory though.

[Stingray51]

I don't disagree with that; I think I was trying to say the same thing. The bottom line is that I don't agree with pooh-poohing the Chinese threat based on a low purported number of modern aircraft. That's about as irrelevant a statistic as how many operational aircraft carriers they have.

[Tallguy]

North Korea and China with their swept wing Mig 15 which flew unexpected rings around our styraight wing F-86.

Errr, do you mean the F-80? That was straight-wing. The F-86 Sabre was swept-wing from the outset.

[RightWhale]

They are dreaming about conquering the moon

It's more than a dream. So what if they have imported a little technology as well as developing their own? Was the Apollo program purely American? The old German V-2 and German rocket scientists had nothing to do with it? They'll do it and if they want help, they'll get it.

[Williams]

If China had a military commensurate with their population size
that would be a serious problem. It is good they have limitations, but they are still a threat. At least a regional one and with ICBM's a global one. It is interesting taht China has never sustained a major military operation far from home. I believe that even on their borders with India and Vietnam, they had difficulty competing and had to use sheer numbers to overcome clunky equipment and organization.

[Magnum44]

I think they will fail for the same reason the Soviets failed. Their system does not reward individual achievement, and they lack the tech/industrial infrastructure. All they have is cheap labor. China remains a third world nation. A mass manufacturer of cheap low tech weapons and Mattel toys.

[RightWhale]

they lack the tech/industrial infrastructure

True, but gaining every day. Rapid strides, etc. Changes are coming.

[Old Airplane Driver]

'scuse me, but you really need to check out the wing planform of an F-86!

[PLMerite]

Once you've used your high-tech fighters to clear the sky of the enemy, the 1950s technology aircraft can roam at will attacking ground targets.

As Stalin is quoted as saying:

"Quantity has a quality all its own."

The Nazis had the best tanks on a one-for-one basis. But the Russians vastly outnumbered them. I remember one old Panther commander talking about being sent (alone) to defend against a Soviet advance. He said that 30 T-34s came charging across the field.

"We got fifteen of them, but there were still fifteen left."

He had to surrender the field and retreat to save his crew.

[VadeRetro]

It was the Lockheed P-80/F-80 Shooting Star, not the F-86 Sabre, that was embarrassed by the MiG-15 in Korea.

[G Larry]

I'm in the habit of concerning myself w U.S. problems, not China's.