Class 3 Senate Seats - the 2004 Senate Elections - Who's Vulnerable?

condensed data from The Green Papers ^ | 1.2.2003 | rface

[rface]

CLASS 3 Senators - 2004 Senate Seats –

‘RATS (19 seats)

(Arkansas) Blanch Lincoln
(California) Barb. Boxer
(Connecticut) Chris. Dodd
(Florida) Bob Graham
(Georgia) Zell Miller
(Hawaii) Dan. Inouye
(Indiana) Evan Bayh
(Louisiana) John Breaux
(Maryland) Barb. Mikulski
(Nevada) Harry Reid
(New York) Chuck Shumer
(North Carolina) John Edwards
(North Dakota) Byron Dorgan
(Oregon) Ron Wyden
(South Carolina) Ernest Hollings
(South Dakota) Tommy Dasshole
(Vermont) Pat “Leaky” Lehy
(Washington) Patty Murray
(Wisconsin) Russ Feingold

GOP (15 seats)

(Alabama) Shelby
(Alaska) Murkowski
(Arizona) MaCain
(Colorado) Campbell
(Idaho) Mike Crapo
(Illinois) Pete Fitzgerald
(Iowa) Charles Grassley
(Kansas) Sam Brownback
(Kentucky) Jim Bunning
(Missouri) Kit Bond
(New Hampshire) Judd Gregg
(Ohio) George Vionovich
(Oklahoma) Don Nickles
(Pennsylvania) Arlen Specter
(Utah) Rob Bennett

[mwl1]

I thought nethercutt was going to run.

[Dog Gone]

The way John Thune graciously conceded the election against Johnson leaves him in good shape to challenge for Daschle's seat in 2004, regardless of whether Tommy tries to stay or not.

[JNB]

IL looks like it is going to be the most difficult seat for the GOP to keep, though Sen Fitzgerald to his credit is the Mr Clean of IL politics. As for Alaska, while the sen appointing his daughter is not a popular choice to many conservatives, former Gov Knowles is going to have to run against her in a year that Bush may rack up close to 65% of the vote, so the situation up there may be similar to that of Montana, where top of the ticket performance may even bring weak canidates across the line. Also Knowles will have to deal with enviromental issues.

As for PA, if Spector gets the nomination again, and all indications is that the GOP powers will push hard for Sen Spector, he will win re election easily, despite the fact he will be 74 in 2004. Conservatives have to look at what heppend to Rep Bryant of TN when he took on the more moderate Lamar Alexander, Karl Rove made it clear the GOP was backing Alexander in the primary, and well, you see the results.


As for vulnerable Dem Seats.

SC- Hollings was elected to his last two tears with beraly 50% of the vote againts weak canidates in good Democratic years. In 98, he needed high black turnout and help from video poker operator donations to pull him though.

NC- In polls taken in Sept, againts two canidates not well known statewide, Edwards got only 45%

ND- Dorgan is running below 50% in polls, and if Bush remains reasonable popular, he faces a enviroment where Bush may get upwards of 65% of the vote, but the olver 65 set, while socially conservative, sure love their pork.

SD- Ditto for ND, though Daschle has made far more controversial votes and statements, though like ND, they like his postion of power and senority to bring hom ethe pork, though people said the same of Sen Sasser of TN in 94.

NV- Reid last election was won by 600 votes, and lots of new voters have moved in NV since the last election. Still, I would put it in the beraly leans Democratic category, but if Bush gets more than 55% of the vote statewide, it will be a very difficult enviroment for him to run in.

CA- CA is a Democratic state now obviously, but there are two things that go againts Sen Boxer. 1.) She has never been popular in terms of personality, and even turns off alot of the so called "moderates" (In reality these moderates are liberals who hate taxes). 2.) Gray Davis. If GRay Davis is suffering from approval ratings in the low 20s, it will impact other Democrats on the ticket. Gov Florio of NJ ultra low popularity almost sank Sen Bradley in 1990 despite the fact his opponent spent virtually no money. Still, you cant beat someone with no one, and so far on a statewide level, the CA GOP has no one.

WA- Patty Murray made a incredibly stupid remark, she is a lightweight, but her state on balance is left of center. Again like CA, you can not beat someone with no one.

All and all, the biggest x factor is president Bush. If he loses re election, then the GOP will probably lose 2 seats. If Bush wins with 51%, with numbers more or less like they were in 2000, Bush can help the GOP be competitive in all these races except for CA. If Bush has a win like his father did with 53%, even CA will come into play. If Bush has a 84 or 72 style re election, then even seats such as AR will come in play.

[rface]

John Thune vs. Dasshole

Ahhhh yes. Thune has a decent chance

[SoDak]

He will challenge for that seat, and, if rumor is to be believed, so will Bill Janklow. I can't think of another viable candidate on the RAT side here. Stephanie Herseth ran against Janklow last time and got pummeled, she has said she will never run against Janklow or Thune.

[chimera]

The way John Thune graciously conceded the election against Johnson leaves him in good shape to challenge for Daschle's seat in 2004, regardless of whether Tommy tries to stay or not.

He may be in the best position to be the challenger, but I don't think he'll win. He couldn't beat Johnson, who is demonstrably the weaker of the the two Rats from SD. And, if the Rats did a number in '02 beating Thune in getting out the dead Indian vote, my guess is that they'll really pull out the stops in getting even more dead out to vote for Dasshole next time around. And why not? The 'Pubs lay down for it every time.

[SoDak]

And, I've never seen the SD GOP as fired up and angry as I have this year. A bad taste is left from the Johnson campaign, and people are saying 'never again'.

[NeoCaveman]

I like pickups is AR, NC, and NV, more if retirments happen in SC, SD,

Let's face it 2 D's in AR....I doubt it. Reid barely won last time and NCers hate Edwards as well they should.

On the R side I hope Fitz holds on in IL

[hresources]

That's a pretty good list. Don't be surprised if we finally get a decent candidate in California to take Boxer out. Also, don't be surprised if Zell Miller and John Breaux decide not to run.

[SoDak]

I think you're right, I overestimated the chances of turning Johnson out in the last election, and I won't do the same with Daschle. But, that being said, I do think Daschle is a LOT easier to tackle in that his role as leader of his party has forced him to go further left than Johnson. Johnson had a much easier time portraying himself as a moderate than Daschle can. Johnson voted for tax cuts, for example, where Daschle didn't. Daschle has given us SO many delicious sound bytes for a campaign in the last couple of years.

[My2Cents]

You know, DG, that's the first I've heard anyone suggest Arnold as a Senate candidate. Frankly, I think this makes more sense than him running for Governor in '04. I like it.

[My2Cents]

Yes, I suppose Daschle would be hard to beat, considering how they have voter fraud perfected in SD.

[I_Love_My_Husband]

Yes, Arnold would be a good choice against Boxer! Someone write him!

[gogeo]

I hope he doesn't. He can have a seat in E. WA. for as long as he wants it. I think a statewide candidate has to come from the westside, as Dunn does. Dunn has great popularity and image here, even stature. Murray doesn't compare favorably. Nethercutt will be dogged by his reneged term limit pledge.

[SoDak]

Janklow pardoned Russell Means this week. Makes ya wonder if he isn't already trying to reverse that trend.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Hopefully this time he'll have poll watchers in the key places to do headcounts of people who showed up vs reported votes, which I couldn't fathom why he didn't have them this last time.

[BlackRazor]

If Tommie runs for pres, his seat will go to the GOP.

Barring retirement, I'm pretty sure Daschle would have to win the Dem nomination for that to happen. If I recall correctly, the filing deadlines are late enough, and the primaries early enough that Daschle could run for the Presidential nomination, not win it, and still have time to file for re-election to the Senate.

[chimera]

Its a good idea to use those and paint Dasshole as being farther left of Johnson. You've also got to get a 'Pub candidate who can counter the Rats' stranglehold on the agricultural subsidies issue. It seems the GOP is weak in places like Iowa and SD and ND, at least at the Senate level (House also?) because Rats are seen as being more protective of the farmers, bailing them out now and again with subsidies and crop insurance programs. I understand, believe me, the importance of keeping the agricultural business viable, not only for the region, but the country as a whole. But something has to be done about weaning the producers away from these government programs. Now, what that is...?

[far sider]

The "two black Republican" senators theme was actually floated earlier today, but with a Voinovich retirement in Ohio, being replaced by Sec. State J. Kenneth Blackwell -- I read, however, that he's been planning to wait and run for governor.

Ken would make a great Senator, but he's a shoo-in for next Governor. Then probably Prez or VP. :)

[SoDak]

I don't think so. The law was engineered by our GOP Governor and legislature specifically to make sure that he wouldn't be able to run for both.