Class 3 Senate Seats - the 2004 Senate Elections - Who's Vulnerable?

condensed data from The Green Papers ^ | 1.2.2003 | rface

[rface]

CLASS 3 Senators - 2004 Senate Seats –

‘RATS (19 seats)

(Arkansas) Blanch Lincoln
(California) Barb. Boxer
(Connecticut) Chris. Dodd
(Florida) Bob Graham
(Georgia) Zell Miller
(Hawaii) Dan. Inouye
(Indiana) Evan Bayh
(Louisiana) John Breaux
(Maryland) Barb. Mikulski
(Nevada) Harry Reid
(New York) Chuck Shumer
(North Carolina) John Edwards
(North Dakota) Byron Dorgan
(Oregon) Ron Wyden
(South Carolina) Ernest Hollings
(South Dakota) Tommy Dasshole
(Vermont) Pat “Leaky” Lehy
(Washington) Patty Murray
(Wisconsin) Russ Feingold

GOP (15 seats)

(Alabama) Shelby
(Alaska) Murkowski
(Arizona) MaCain
(Colorado) Campbell
(Idaho) Mike Crapo
(Illinois) Pete Fitzgerald
(Iowa) Charles Grassley
(Kansas) Sam Brownback
(Kentucky) Jim Bunning
(Missouri) Kit Bond
(New Hampshire) Judd Gregg
(Ohio) George Vionovich
(Oklahoma) Don Nickles
(Pennsylvania) Arlen Specter
(Utah) Rob Bennett

[rface]

I don't have any special inside info, but my picks for possible 'RAT Senate Seat pick-ups are:

(Nevada) Harry Reid
(North Carolina) John Edwards
(North Dakota) Byron Dorgan
(South Carolina) Ernest Hollings
(South Dakota) Tommy Dasshole
(Washington) Patty Murray

any insight into this - something to ponder and pass a slow news day

Ashland, Missouri

[The Obstinate Insomniac]

Beating the Moron Patty Murray is a nice dream but Washington is overpopulated with Socialists who will vote for any Candidate that the Democrats run.

[Keith]

I like our chances of Giuliani vs. Schumer.

I would worry about Fitzgerald and good old Single Bulls--t Spector.

[My2Cents]

I suspect the reason John Edwards is running for President is that he believes he doesn't stand much of a chance of being re-elected to the Senate.

I would add Barbara Boxer to that list, but only if the GOP can find an attactive candidate. (And there may be one in Orange Co. Sheriff Michael Corona, according to Hugh Hewitt.) California has become the most Democratic state west of Massachusetts, but within two years, the Democrats will have made such a mess of the state budget, there will be a backlash. Plus, Barbara Boxer is one of the THE most shrill leftists in the US Senate -- she's far too extreme left, even for California.

On the GOP list, perhaps the only Republican in trouble could be Peter Fitzgerald.

[frmrda]

Thanks to Frank Murkowski appointing his daughter, the Alaska seat will become in play, with the Republicans as the underdog. The popular former governor (Knowles I think) is running for that seat and apparently the WH wasn't happy with the appointment

[rface]

yea....but we could pound on Patty and force the 'RATS to pour $$ into that race. 'RATS are gonna hurt for money this go-around and they also have 19 seats to protect.

I say that even to pick off one 'RAT senator would be a great thing

I also know that we can be vulnerable on a couple seats as well - but I still think we can get another seat or two in 2004 - unless disaster falls

[rface]

I just think it may hurt Edwards to run in the Pres. Primaries and run for Senate at the same time

[xrp]

Georgia might be a pickup for Republicans. Zell Miller has said he would only serve one term.

[chimera]

Those all look like pretty safe seats on the Rat side, I'm sorry to say. Barbara Boxer is probably the most brainless idiot ever to sit in the Senate and people think she may be vulnerable, but remember, this is liberal Rat bastion Kali and Boxer has the magic talisman (abortion) on her side. Unless the 'Pubs nominate someone who can lay claim to killing more babies than Boxer, I think the Brainless One is in for another term.

We may get either Graham's or Edwards' seat but only if they run for President, and then we might get either of them as President, which would be A Bad Thing. I've heard it said that Edwards is unpopular right now in NC and that may well be, but two years is a long time in politics and he may be able to patch things up if he doesn't go the presidential route. Never overestimate the intelligence of the average voter...

We will probably lose Fitzgerald because of infighting and the fact that IL is trending strongly to the Rat side in recent elections. Is it demographics? I don't know...

We could lose Spector for the same reason, unless he proudly paints himself as a RINO. I think Alaska is OK for the 'Pubs based on environmental issues. I seem to recall a poll showing most Alaskans are pro-oil development in the state. Makes sense, since its a cash cow for them.

[meadsjn]

An earlier posted article today showed the dem/GOP gap in WA getting narrow. Considering the downward spiral in the WA economy, there is a good chance for reversal of past voting trends. A pro-business governor and a pro-American senator could win.

[BaBaStooey]

Keyes vs. Miluski in MD
Guiliani vs. Schumer in NY

Is Nickles retiring? Because its been mentioned that J.C. Watts might run for that seat. Two black republicans in the Senate that currently has none. wouldn't that be a dig at the party whose southern members tried to filibuster civil rights.

Speaking of Dem racists, I want Fritz Hollings to go down in flames sooooooo bad

[JohnnyZ]

Don't want to rain on anyone's parade, just wanted to point out some more senate 2004 threads:

The most current:
2004 Senate Election List

plus
Senate Outlook, 2004 Elections

The Senate Races of 2004

[JohnnyZ]

The "two black Republican" senators theme was actually floated earlier today, but with a Voinovich retirement in Ohio, being replaced by Sec. State J. Kenneth Blackwell -- I read, however, that he's been planning to wait and run for governor.

Alan Keyes is my hero (read my profile!) but he's got no shot against Mikulski. Even running another black candidate would have psychological effect in Maryland, however, especially after the GOP elected Michael Steele Lt Governor.

Oh, and lest folks worry that the GOP is joining in the race-pimping, Blackwell, Steele, and JC Watts are all qualified, articulate pro-life conservatives.

[SoDak]

If Tommie runs for pres, his seat will go to the GOP. Tommie would probably be tough to beat, but there's no one waiting in the wings behind him.

[JohnnyZ]

Right now we're looking at five possible open D seats, all in GOP country: Edwards (NC), Graham (FL), Daschle (SD), Miller (GA), Hollings (SC). Edwards is only a narrow favorite to win if he gives up the presidential campaign -- he got far fewer votes in '98 than Bowles did in '02 and now he has a record to run against -- and Hollings is either a tossup or underdog, hopefully against Jim DeMint.

[Dog Gone]

I agree with Boxer being vulnerable for the reasons you outline.

Plus, if Bush's popularity holds in California (so far, so good), his re-election will help down-ticket candidates.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Arnold Schwarzeneggar as her replacement.

[mwl1]

All we need to guarantee continued GOP control are a couple of retirements: Daschle, Hollings, Zell Miller, possibly even Graham of Florida. John Edwards will run for re-election after his presidential candidate collapses. Reid is crazy if he doesn't retire, because newcomers to his state loathe him and cannot wait to vote him out.

[mwl1]

I agree, Hollings should be scared out of seeking re-election.

[gogeo]

I think Murray in WA is vulnerable, but only with a credible 'Pub candidate. There are a couple. Jennifer Dunn is one.

[mwl1]

Boxer may be vulnerable, but Bush is going to invest more in New York than in California because of 9-11. This is where Guiliani's candidacy against Chuckie comes in.