Critics Say Missile Defense System Unworkable

Reuters via NYTimes.com ^ | 12/17/2002

[GeneD]

Filed at 6:54 p.m. ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The missile defense system President Bush ordered to be deployed will not work and is a waste of money, critics said on Tuesday while the Pentagon acknowledged the system initially will provide only modest protection.

``I have no great confidence that it's going to work under real-world conditions,'' said Lawrence Korb, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations think tank who served as assistant secretary of defense under President Ronald Reagan.

Bush directed the Defense Department to begin deploying a national missile defense system with land- and sea-based interceptor rockets to be up and working in 2004.

The system is intended to protect the United States against long-range enemy missiles. But there have been three failures in the eight major tests involving attempts to shoot down a long-range dummy warhead in space over the Pacific Ocean, including the most recent test on Dec. 11.

Critics said the program is too costly -- tens of billions of dollars already and potentially hundreds of billions of dollars in the long run -- and has not proven that it can work as advertised. They also expressed worry that the deployment might prompt nations such as North Korea and China to step up missile-building efforts.

John Isaacs, president of Council for a Livable World, an organization opposed to the deployment, said Bush was rushing ahead with a system that is ``deaf, dumb and blind.''

``A missile defense system that protects Americans consistently and reliably is years, if not decades, away,'' he said in a statement. ``The planned deployment lacks a needed radar system to make it see, operational tests to determine if it works and satellite systems to provide adequate sensors.''

'IT'S IMPORTANT TO START'

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said the administration was not rushing into anything.

``The reason I think it's important to start is because you have to put something in place and get knowledge about it and have experience with it, and then add to it over time. I mean, there isn't a single weapons systems we have that hasn't gotten better successively over a period of time that I can think of,'' Rumsfeld said during a Pentagon briefing.

Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Policy J.D. Crouch said the system will have ``very modest'' capability when first deployed, but would be ``very useful.''

Rumsfeld added: ``To the extent we have a capability, it will have a deterrent effect. ... To the extent it has a limited capability, it will have a deterrent effect only to that limit.''

Philip Coyle, who as assistant secretary of defense helped evaluate the program during the Clinton administration, said the tests of the system currently planned are not sufficient to determine whether it will work. ``Based on the test results so far, it isn't ready now,'' he said in an interview.

Korb told Reuters he believed Bush decided to deploy in 2004, the final year of his term in office, in order to have a program in place to ensure its long-term use.

``I think it's mostly a political decision because Bush can't be guaranteed a second term, and by picking that particular date what he does is he locks in his successor,'' Korb added.

Some congressional Democrats were critical.

Democratic Sen. Carl Levin of Michigan, outgoing chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said Bush's decision ``violates common sense by determining to deploy systems before they have been tested and shown to work.''

U.S. Rep. Edward Markey of Massachusetts added, ``It wastes taxpayer dollars and lulls us into a false sense of security.''

``It's all politics and not much defense,'' said Rep. Thomas Allen, a Maine Democrat who noted the deployment target was the fall of 2004, when Bush is expected to seek re-election.

Rumsfeld was asked if the decision was driven by politics.

``It is driven by acute rationality,'' Rumsfeld said. ``There isn't anything we're doing in this department that it would be accurate to suggest is rooted in politics.''

[elbucko]

That's an item of personal interest, having lived a few blocks away, long ago, from a Nike base....

If they were "Herc's", you were in the atomic age and didn't know it.
(shhhhhhh, Martin Sheen might find out he lived by them too)

[Poohbah]

Nike-Zeus later became known as Nike-X, and then Spartan.

Wags insisted that Spartan was really an acronym:

Superior Performance And Range Through Advanced Nomenclature.

[Poohbah]

Sounds like you've read B. Bruce-Briggs' The Shield of Faith. A very useful reference book. ANd he's very witty, too.

[elbucko]

I guess the Wright Brothers should never have wasted their time.

Timely post. It is the 99th. Anniversary of the Wright's flight at Kitty Hawk, today the 17th. of December, 2002.

[Archangelsk]

Any aerospace engineers here who are working on telemetry and vector issues on this thing. I'd really like to know, in generic and unclassified terms, some of the difficulties involved.

[elbucko]

Wags insisted that Spartan was really an acronym:..

There is an element of truth in your post. The Zeus was killed on the drawing board. The efforts of a few to keep it alive turned into only comical PR.

However, had the Zeus, Sprint and other missile intercept systems that were aborted, been developed, at least experimentally, the NYT article above would not have been written.

[Poohbah]

Spartan and Sprint were actually deployed operationally.

There were some semi-serious problems with the Safeguard system--the biggest being that 100 interceptors had to cope with thousands of warheads.

If MIRV technology had simply proved too unreliable for operational use, terminal-phase ABM might have been a bit more cost-effective.

[elbucko]

Sounds like you've read B. Bruce-Briggs' The Shield of Faith.

No, actually I haven't, but I'll find a copy. When the Army closed its CONUS Air Defense Command, I left and didn't look back. The Nike stuff I know is from memory. I am amazed, though, at the info on the Internet. In my time it was all mostly, "SECRET". Now it's public domain.

[Poohbah]

You might be interested in some of the VCE nuclear weapons movies. Good music, interesting film footage of nuclear tests, not heavy on the polemics.

[RJL]

The system is intended to protect the United States against long-range enemy missiles. But there have been three failures in the eight major tests involving attempts to shoot down a long-range dummy warhead in space over the Pacific Ocean, including the most recent test on Dec. 11."

This is a 62.5% success rate. AIDS drugs are successful nowhere near 62.5% of the time. Would the NYT now suggest that we quit using or developing drugs to help those infected with aids?

I doubt it.

[Poohbah]

Also, the test failures happened early on. The recent tests have gone smashingly well.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

THEL is a key program. If directed energy weapon systems mature as I hope they can in the next 5 years, and with proper tracking systems to boot, you won't need 'kill vehicles' such as the one that failed last week. A ground-based laser platform could do the job.

Then, the bastards couldn't build nukes fast enough to ever reach the point where they could overwhelm this defense, as we can build lasers faster then they can build nukes.

[elbucko]

Spartan and Sprint were actually deployed operationally.

I didn't know that. It must have been a sparse coverage. I did participate on some tests of Sprint, but by then the Army was undergoing changes from a conscription service to the volunteer.

I do know some Patriot crewman from those days. It was called SAM-D then. I am glad it was saved, but its performance in the Gulf is not a surprise to me.

[cornelis]

Interesting.

[dighton]

If they were "Herc's", you were in the atomic age and didn't know it.

Since I'm not Martin Sheen, cool!

[Lancey Howard]

"Ruth made a big mistake when he gave up pitching."
- Tris Speaker, 1918.

[elbucko]

You might be interested in some of the VCE nuclear weapons movies.

I hate to post my ignorance (knowingly) but what is the acronym, "VCE"?

I did, however get to see some interesting movies while at Air Defense as officer cadet. Mostly from WWII.

[Poohbah]

I didn't know that. It must have been a sparse coverage.

100 interceptors total--70 Spartan, 30 Sprint--deployed at Grand Forks AFB, North Dakota. There was going to be a second site at Malmstrom AFB, in Montana. It got cancelled in the wake of the ABM Treaty.

It was never intended to be a nationwide coverage, just coverage for the ICBM sites around Grand Forks, Minot, and Ellsworth.

[Poohbah]

VCE is the company marketing this stuff.

Two of their titles are "Trinity and Beyond" (nuclear tests from 1945-1962, along with the first Chinese nuclear test in 1964), and "Nuclear 911" (film footage of nuclear weapons-related mishaps and the response to those mishaps.)

Do a Google on the titles, you'll find 'em.

[mikenola]

This article reeks of a tone I've heard often from liberal friends: "if ain't perfect , better not do it". Heck, it's only nuking a major American city we're talking about, right? Better not do it, 0% chance is better than 62% right?

Now, when I point out the abysmal rate of sucess of liberal social programs -- welfare deepening not reducing poverty, needle-exchange increasing drug dependency, then , well, "we just need to keep working harder at it" .

Ignorant boobs.