Israel Sees A 'Crisis' in Falling U.S. Population; 150 Jews Vanish Daily?

The Forward ^

[RCW2001]

DECEMBER 13, 2002	| current issue | back issues | subscribe |

Israel Sees A 'Crisis' in Falling U.S. Population

Agency Cites Shelved Study

150 Jews Vanish Daily?

By NACHA CATTAN
FORWARD STAFF

Stepping into a statistical minefield, the Jewish Agency for Israel is defending its decision earlier this month to mount an "international emergency conference" on world Jewish population decline — using as evidence a survey that has been shelved by its own sponsors.

The conference, organized in Jerusalem by the Jewish Agency's new strategic planning institute, was focused on what agency officials called a worldwide Jewish "demographic crisis." Speakers referred repeatedly to a decline of 300,000 in the world Jewish population during the last decade, a figure that agency chairman Sallai Meridor called "a point of no return" for world Jewry.

The figure is based mostly on an American Jewish population survey that was partially released in October in New York by United Jewish Communities of North America, purportedly showing that American Jews numbered 5.2 million in 2000, down from 5.5 million in 1990. UJC announced in November, however, that it was withholding the bulk of the survey for further study, after learning that some supporting data had been lost by a research firm.

The tentative nature of the statistics led some observers to question the alarmist tone adopted at the Jewish Agency conference.

"How is the word 'emergency' justified?" said Steven M. Cohen, a senior research consultant to UJC on the population survey. "Even if 5.2 million turns out to be correct, I wouldn't use the word 'emergency.' Emergency should be reserved for the Shoah, the Six-Day War, a disease outbreak." Cohen said, however, that he had no problem with the institute quoting the UJC survey figures.

The two-day conference was the inaugural event of the Jewish Agency's newly formed Jewish People Policy Planning Institute, which is chaired by former American diplomat Dennis Ross.

The conference featured a string of Israeli and Diaspora figures lamenting the demographic "crisis" and calling for urgent measures, including increased immigration to Israel and greater funding for Jewish day schools.

Meridor said in his speech, which received extensive Israeli press coverage, that the statistics showed Jews are "disappearing" at a rate of 50,000 per year. Several news accounts translated Meridor's figure into a "disappearance" rate of 150 Jews per day.

The October release of the UJC study, the National Jewish Population Survey 2000-2001, prompted criticism from scholars who questioned some of its statistical methods. UJC officials themselves were divided on the survey's accuracy, with some cautioning that its margin of error was too great for the seeming population drop to be considered reliable.

Most observers said the lost data set that prompted the survey's suspension in November was not of major importance. According to some insiders, however, the one survey finding that might be affected by the lost data was the overall population figure, which could prove to be higher than 5.2 million.

The founding president of the policy planning institute, Hebrew University political scientist Yehezkel Dror, claimed the American population figures were introduced at the conference with "reservations, as a tentative number."

But the institute's senior consultant on Jewish population, Hebrew University demographer Sergio DellaPergola, insisted the "demographic crisis" is real and is not limited to the United States.

"Be aware, there is no missing data," said DellaPergola, who convened the conference. "There are missing materials that are helpful to evaluate the statistical error of the data, but not the data itself. Our numbers are based on quite accurate research. You have exactly the same trend in France, Eastern Europe and Latin America. It cannot be explained by some technical mistake."

DellaPergola said that in addition to the NJPS, the institute based its findings on numbers from around the world and a smaller American Jewish identity survey co-authored in 2001 by sociologist Egon Mayer. DellaPergola is also a member of the national technical advisory committee to the UJC population survey.

Critics of the survey continued to insist, however, that the figures were suspect. One leading critic suggested that the agency's motives in planning a conference around the survey were ideological.

"As I understand it, the only decline they're recording is from the now-suspended National Jewish Population Survey," said sociologist Gary Tobin, president of the San Francisco-based Institute for Jewish and Community Research, who has been one of the population survey's harshest critics. "So it's odd, and as I read some of the quotes from the conference it clearly is about the agenda of aliya."

The policy planning institute was founded in May, with a $1 million budget funded in equal shares by the Jewish Agency and Diaspora Jewish philanthropies. It was created to identify challenges facing world Jewry and to make recommendations to solve them.

Some American observers were critical of the Jewish Agency for expending resources on American Jewish demography rather than on Israeli development.

"I'm very concerned that the Jewish Agency not try to expand its field of vision at a time of diminishing resources," said Chicago attorney Richard Wexler, a top UJC lay leader who chairs a newly formed advocacy group to represent the Jewish Agency's interests in North America. "Our federations, including my own, would frown on the Jewish Agency reinvesting dollars we send to Israel for the purpose of stimulating Jewish population of the United States, or the suggestion that somehow the Jewish Agency has answers to the Jewish population questions in the Diaspora."

"They should be concerned with the re-population of the Galilee and the Negev, or at least wait until the UJC releases the population study," Wexler continued. "The Jewish Agency's partners here are not even ready to discuss the Jewish population study."

But DellaPergola insisted that American Jewish demography is well within the Jewish Agency's mandate. "The mandate of the Jewish Agency is global," he said. "The Jewish Agency should be concerned with world Jewry and America is a large part of what's going on in world Jewry."

[onedoug]

Secularism.

I wouldn't trade my share of Judaism's anchoring of Western civilization.

[My2Cents]

That was might thought, exactly. Too many Jews are liberals, and like many liberals, view "childless" marriages favorably.

[xm177e2]

Abortion is not the reason, Jews have fewer abortions than Christians. The problem is intermarriage and secularism. Unbelieving Jews drift away, and there's little pressure for us to return.

[gatex]

"150 Jews Vanish Daily?

The Jewish Agency for Israel called for President Bush to find them immediately.

[hinckley buzzard]

On a visit to the US a great international figure spoke of feeling "the pulse of her great Jewry with its five millions."

The visitor was David Ben-Gurion, the year was 1941. Apparently nothing much has changed with American Jewry in fifty years.

[cynicom]

Bush has issued a statement saying that Senator Lott may well be to blame for the missing jews and that is not the spirit of this country.

[mdmathis6]

There is a strong messianic Jewish Christian movement occuring as well with many younger Jews converting to Christianity...I know that various Jewish groups have viewed this with some alarm, even the Liberal NPR had stories on this a few years back, in light of attempted "deprogramming" of Jewish christians by their families. I don't remember quite all the details. Since many Jewish families consider such converted family members "dead" this might account for at least part of the so-called "decline".

[stylin19a]

Nice catch !
If a Jew converts to some other religion, is it subracted from the count?
Is it possible that these 300,000 were part of the 2000 Cencus statistical sampling undercount?
If so, does that make them a minority, cause the entire sampling undercount were(was?) of minorities ?

[APBaer]

Question this guy, they might have gone ahead to the spaceship:

[rmlew]

1. Wouldn't you expect natural growth in the numbers of Jews if Jews simply kept replacement levels of children due to rising lifespans?
This accounts for most Jewish growth.
2. About 500,000 Jews have immigrated to the US since 1945.
There have been 200,000 Jewish immigrants since 1990. In that time total Jewish nimbers have fallen by 300,000. That is a decrease of 500,000 Jews or 10% in 10 years.
Jewish women marry late and have 1.3 children on Average. Jewish men tend to intermarry and have Christian or non-religious kids and grandkids.
Replacement levels are 2.1 children per woman.

The only thing that is growing is the num,ber of Christians, atheists, and others of Jewish descent.

(Of course I suppose I'm part of the problem. I'm rarely observant. My grandfather had 2 kids at my age. I'm still single.)

[koax]

i have noticed that most of the obits in the nyt and lat are jews.

[jabotinsky]

been coming for a long time. safe comfortable american jews. patthtic lemmings whose idea of Judaism is voting liberal traitors into office every two years.

Rav. Kahane (ZT'L) asked in the 1970's ! "what makes Bernie run to Bridget". He was mocked and derided for his 'alarmist' view by filthy reformed (DEformed) liberal lemming jews. Woops, guess he was right all along.

Who what else he was rigt about? The camp david - oslo trojan horse disaster.

Most Jews never learn until its too late. However, and luckily as Rav Kahane pointed out
"in every generation a few understand. Always understand, even if you are the few."
There are a few Jews who understand, an no they dont live on the uper west side. They live in towns called K.Arba, tapuach and Efrat.

I aint no bettin man, but I say 100 yrs from now long after American jews intermarried themselves into oblivion, the only Jews remaining are gonna trace their roots to these towns.

[GovernmentShrinker]

Though at the rate the Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox reproduce, one would think the overall "Jewish" population would at least break even. I think these numbers are probably bogus.

[CJ Wolf]

ha! good one.

[TopQuark]

Wow, your language is well beyond disagrement. It's quite amazing. Aer you certain that YOU understand?

[crystalk]

It isn't possible that Jews have FEWER abortions than Christians. Christians have NONE.

What they mean is, than non-Jews.

[DeaconBenjamin]

Guess again.

[jabotinsky]

I understand perfectly well.
its a very simple proposition. If I want my kids to be Jewish in character and not just in name, then I will marry another Jew and will see to it that my kids are raised accordingly.

sure its possible to 'fall in love' with any one of any race, but when your priorities are strong, the idea of surrendering my heritage for a life with a non-Jew is simply unacceptable.

am yisrael chai - forever.