[Travis McGee]

Do you think Norwalk and West Nile are probes? What SWAG % of certainty?

I think that Saddam has already secreted plenty of anthrax or smallpox in the USA, and his "failsafe firing system" is providing the address of the mini storage garages or similar where they are hidden to Al Qaeda.

[Myrddin]

It's hard to put a figure on % certainty. It just seems completely unreasonable that multiple cruise ships would have outbreaks of the same virus over a short period of time...unless there is a common means of infection. Norwalk is spread by poor sanitation e.g. people not washing their hands after using the restroom. Smallpox is spread by face to face contact, contact with contaminated bedding and contaminated dishes/silverware. The use of a food service to "inoculate" the vessel is dirt simple. People are a lot more trusting of silverware than restroom doors.