Complete BCS chaos still possible(Hey Irish, "Get out of Iowa's bowl!")

"I hope everyone was paying attention and saw the score," said Trojans quarterback Carson Palmer after his team's 44-13 demolition of Notre Dame on Saturday. "They need to know that we're for real now. We are definitely worthy of being a BCS team."

Stop the stumping, for now. The Trojans are a BCS bowl team. Locked in, as a matter of fact, unless Miami loses its season finale to Virginia Tech. The new BCS ratings Monday will most likely show the Trojans have moved up to No. 4. If Miami wins, that position will hold, and the Trojans will clinch a BCS at-large berth.

Oh, but the horror that looms. Some team(s) or some bowl(s) is/are likely to be more than disappointed when the final BCS ratings are released next Sunday.

Start with the fact that the New York Times rankings have the Trojans (10-2) No. 1, ahead of undefeated Miami and Ohio State and one-loss wonders Georgia and Iowa.

"This is worse," BCS expert Jerry Palm said Sunday, "than the nightmare scenario with four unbeaten teams."

While they are sitting pretty at USC, they're sweating big time, or should be, at Iowa. The Orange Bowl is involved. So is the Rose Bowl. That 800-pound bowl gorilla -- you know it as Notre Dame -- might be in the best shape of all.

"I can make a case for us going to a BCS bowl," Notre Dame coach Tyrone Willingham said Saturday night, still stinging from the USC defeat. "This one game cannot be a true indicator."

True, but at what cost? Tearing asunder the traditional Rose Bowl matchup? Sending a four-loss team 3,000 miles to play in a game next to no one wants to see (Washington State vs. Florida State)?

The Fiesta Bowl seems set with Miami facing Ohio State. But below that, a case can be made for the BCS being as confusing -- and uncomfortable for certain participants -- as at any time in its five-year history.

This much is certain: If Miami and Georgia win their final games on Saturday -- both are likely to be prohibitive favorites -- then the Orange Bowl gets the first choice of BCS teams because it will have lost the Big East champion.

That's where some tough decisions have to be made. If the Orange picks Notre Dame (10-2), then the other at-large team has to be USC if Washington State defeats UCLA to clinch a Rose Bowl berth. That means there is no place in the BCS for the Big Ten co-champ, Iowa.

Two weeks ago, they were tossing around Roses in Iowa City. Right now, the Hawkeyes' fate might lie in the Citrus Bowl.

That scenario would no doubt anger Rose Bowl, Big Ten and Pac-10 officials, who will have seen their traditional matchup go away for the second year in a row. Two years ago, the Pac-10 threatened to pull out of the BCS if Oregon State wasn't invited to a BCS bowl.

If Washington State beats UCLA this week -- no tap-in for the injury-riddled Cougars -- then the Rose is looking at an opening that could be filled by Oklahoma, Florida State or Notre Dame.

Really, it wouldn't matter if the 1966 Packers were available to the Rose Bowl. Breaking up the holy Pac-10/Big Ten alliance is akin to staining a wedding dress. Remember, there were Rose traditionalists last year that were peeved the national championship game was held in Pasadena.

"I understand the traditional matchups, and how that plays a part in it," said Keith Tribble, executive director of the Orange Bowl. "I think when we signed on to this four years ago, we all knew that some of those traditions that we once had would be taken away. We had (many) years where we had the Big Eight champion. We had to give up that. We knew going into this that sometimes you might not get that exactly, quote -- "tradition" -- and I can understand that."

How did it all happen so fast? First, USC should give thanks to Oklahoma. By tanking against Oklahoma State for the second consecutive year, the Sooners allowed the Trojans to move up to No. 4. BCS rules guarantee that any conference non-champion rated No. 3 or No. 4 is guaranteed a BCS bowl. USC, finished with its season, has done all it can.

On one hand, it's rooting for UCLA to beat Washington State so it would win the Pac-10 and go to the Rose Bowl. Short of that, a Miami victory over Virginia Tech would probably clinch an at-large berth. But where?

Tribble, whose selection committee will meet on Monday, is saying all the right things as of now.

"The only thing that has changed at this point is an 11-1 Notre Dame would have been a real good selection, almost an absolute," Tribble said. "Right now, I think because of the loss, they're in the same picture as the other 10-2 teams in the country. A lot of things can happen. We're going to put them on the board just like the other 10-2 teams."

The best thing for the Orange Bowl is that it is still in the same position it was before Saturday. Notre Dame is still available. In years when it doesn't have the national championship game, the Orange struggles to fill seats. The bowl can be thankful that, despite the 31-point thrashing, the Irish didn't drop out of the BCS top 12 and out of BCS bowl eligibility.

Key questions seem to be hanging in the air. Does the Orange take Notre Dame and its legion of fans and national television appeal or appease the Rose Bowl? USC officials visited both the Sugar and Orange bowls last week making a case for their program. It was wise marketing. No Pac-10 team has ever played in the Sugar Bowl. Only one, Washington, has ever played in the Orange.

Pac-10 commissioner Tom Hansen told the Los Angeles Times on Saturday his conference would kick in $500,000 to "subsidize" the Trojans' trip to South Florida. The assumption is that the money would be used to make up for any ticket shortfall the Orange might suffer by not picking Notre Dame.

"You want a team that is going to sell a tickets, have a lot of fans, bring a lot of interest," Tribble said, "a team that is going to have good media appeal. If you get all those wrapped up in one, you've got an ideal team."

So the Orange, Sugar and Rose could become a mish-mosh of last-minute dealings in order to get the right matchups for everybody. In that respect, not much has changed from the pre-BCS days. Remember this: Amid all the BCS rules and exceptions is the fact that BCS officials -- after the national championship game -- reserve the right to do whatever they want to get the best games.

The backroom deals of the past might be back. One source close to a BCS bowl theorized that a bowl could agree to take a less desirable team this year in return for a promise of favorable treatment from commissioners the next time BCS bowls bid on participating in the system.

What is benefiting USC right now is hamstringing the BCS and potentially screwing Iowa (11-1). The so-called "Kansas State Rule" was adopted after the 1998 season. The then-undefeated Wildcats went to the Big 12 title game, lost to Texas A&M and found themselves shut out of a BCS bowl. It played in the Alamo Bowl at 11-1. After that, it was decided that any team rated No. 3 or No. 4 that didn't win its conference outright could grab a BCS berth.

"It took away the flexibility of the bowls," Palm said. "Why should Kansas State have to go? Why does USC have to go. They don't have to go."

As always, there are many possibilities before the regular season ends on Saturday:

The BCS fathers are praying for that result, because it would make everything nice and tidy. USC would go to the Rose Bowl as the outright Pac-10 champ. The Orange Bowl would be free to pick Notre Dame without a bit of controversy. The Rose would then pick Iowa to keep the traditional matchup intact.

Notre Dame most likely would play Oklahoma. Florida State would play Georgia in the Sugar.

This is the most interesting scenario. There is the possibility that the No. 1 Hurricanes could still make it to the Fiesta Bowl after losing . It depends on how far they would drop in the polls.

The double loss most probably would create a three-way race for the Fiesta Bowl between Miami, USC and, believe it or not, Iowa. All hope is not lost for the Hawkeyes.

"It depends on how far Miami falls," Palm said, "(but) I couldn't tell you who would be in second or third place?"

This is the one USC should be worried about. If Miami falls in the polls between Iowa (No. 3 in both polls) and USC (No. 5 in both), then the Trojans could be knocked out of the No. 4 BSC spot.

Assuming Georgia wins, the Bulldogs would move up to the Fiesta Bowl to play Ohio State. Miami stays an at-large team, most likely in the Sugar. The Rose, with the first pick, would take Iowa to match against Washington State.

After that, the three remaining holes would be filled by some combination of Florida State, Notre Dame, USC and Oklahoma (if it wins the Big 12).

Colorado pulled the upset last year, so don't count it out, especially against what at this point seems to be a rudderless Oklahoma program. Win or lose against Oklahoma State, Oklahoma would have been out of the BCS rotation if it loses to Colorado in the Big 12 championship game. So nothing has changed there.

But Colorado is the poison pill that no BCS bowl wants. It doesn't travel well and would hold little national appeal at 10-3. The Buffs were a sexy Fiesta pick last year because they beat Nebraska and could have made a claim for a national title game berth.

This time? Colorado-Notre Dame in the Orange is mildly interesting. So is Colorado-Florida State. But now that Chris Brown has ceased to be a Heisman candidate, what little appeal Colorado had as ticket and TV draw is gone.

Arkansas would bring a load of fans to New Orleans or South Florida, so not much is lost there. In fact, having the Razorbacks in the BCS would be a feel-good story that matched LSU's run last season.

This scenario, however, doesn't resolve the Notre Dame-USC-Iowa problem. Either Notre Dame or Iowa would be left out.

"Unfortunately, I think that's going to happen every year," Tribble said, echoing the inherent flaw of the BCS, "somebody is going to be left out."

Because Notre Dame already has played Florida State and USC in the regular season, that makes it more difficult to place all three teams neatly. While there is not specific language in the BCS against it, regular-season rematches are despised in the bowl community.

Among the BCS "criteria" for moving teams is "two teams that played against one another in the most recently completed college football season."

That means Washington State-USC (Rose), Notre Dame-USC or Notre Dame-Florida State games (both Orange) are highly unlikely.

While this post was happening last night I was watching "Big Trouble" which devotes a subthread to the fact that all stupid people in Florida are Gator fans. :)

Iowa lost to the Big 12's 8th place team. Period.

Let me say it so you can understand it better.....

Iowa choked. Iowa choked against Iowa State, aka Cow College.

OSU is undefeated. Check ESPN.com archives. Bring on Iowa.
We will kick their arse just as we have dominated the series for decades.

Cow College.........Cow College.........Cow College.........Cow College.........Cow College.........Cow College.........

Hmm. As near as I can tell, Michigan is about the 15th best team in the country (I am a Michigan fan, but I think I've got that about right). Playing Michigan, therefore, is a true test. Ohio State got Michigan at home, and barely beat them (both teams wanted the game equally badly--OSU was just a bit better when it counted). Iowa, on the other hand, came into the Big House and handed our Wolverines their collective [heads]. From the second half kickoff on, there was no doubt as to who was the better team.

As an impatial (well, mostly) observer, I've got to go with the Hawkeyes.

Michigan was 9th in the country until they played OSU, now they are 15th.

One simple fact, very simple. OSU is undefeated. Period.

Any other comparisons ie Iowa State etc., have no footing to build your foundation upon. They LOST, period.

Iowa should consider themselves lucky they did not schedule The Ohio State University Buckeyes this year. For if they had, their fate would have resembled the history of the series between the two schools....Iowa would have lost.

I sure am glad that Ohio State did not schedule Iowa State this year, whew!, man, we sure are lucky!

Oh and by the way, OSU BEAT MICHIGAN in the BIG HOUSE in the first year under Coach Tressel. OSU is now 2-0 versus Michigan.

Things are a lot easier when your team wins ALL of it's games.

GO BUCKS!

I think the comparison is fairly valid. The games were fairly close together in time. Both Iowa and OSU wanted to win really bad. They were both great teams.

As far as Iowa's trip-up goes--OSU came very close to a similar disaster, several times. And as for last year--by the end of the season, Michigan was blowing chunks (look at what Tennessee did to them). Last year's edition was the worst since 1984.

I still think OSU got a big break not playing Iowa.

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