Pieces nearly in place for war
Posted on 11/30/2002 3:07:38 AM PST by MeekOneGOP
Pieces nearly in place for war
With buildup under way, Bush could move against Iraq quickly
11/30/2002
WASHINGTON - If President Bush decides to wage war on Iraq, he won't have to wait for the long military buildup in the Persian Gulf that was necessary when his father made a similar decision.
Mobilization for the Gulf War of 1991, waged under former President George Bush, took five months. The buildup to a possible Gulf War II is well under way: The military could be ready for a new conflict as early as late December, some experts estimate.
"Clearly we are slowly and carefully building up troops in the Mideast in anticipation of having to use them," observed retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Don Shepperd. "We're slowly moving supplies, men and equipment into the area."
With U.N. inspectors back on Iraqi soil for the first time since 1998, Mr. Bush is holding off on any decision to use the military to scour Iraq for biological, chemical and nuclear weapons. But the U.S. armed forces have been ordered to prepare for war and are doing so methodically.
"Planning and preparations continue," said retired Rear Adm. Stephen H. Baker, operations officer for the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier battle group in the 1991 Gulf War. "They haven't slowed down one bit."
Estimates of how many troops would be needed to defeat Saddam Hussein's military and overthrow the Iraqi dictator range from as few as 50,000 up to 250,000, depending on how optimistic the scenario is.
By informed estimates, the U.S. armed services already have 30,000 to 40,000 soldiers, sailors, Air Force members and Marines in or near the gulf, plus a wide range of weapons and equipment in countries near Iraq.
According to a detailed analysis by Adm. Baker, other public information and interviews with military officers, those forces and their locations include:
KUWAIT - The small Persian Gulf nation has hosted a variety of U.S. forces since the 1991 war, when the U.S.-led coalition saved Kuwait from being permanently absorbed by Iraq.
U.S. forces in Kuwait include about 10,000 troops armed with more than 500 tanks and 64 Patriot anti-missile batteries, sent to defend Kuwait from Iraq's Scud and other ballistic missiles.
Camp Doha, near Kuwait City, is headquarters for Army forces attached to the U.S. Central Command. In 37 warehouses there, the Army stores equipment for three brigades, including M1A1 tanks, Bradley fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers and howitzers.
About 50 U.S. warplanes, 75 helicopters, aerial refueling tankers, transport and surveillance aircraft - including U-2 spy planes - fly from Kuwait, using Ali Al Salem air base, 39 miles south of the Iraq border, and Ahmed Al Jaber air base, about 30 miles farther south.
SAUDI ARABIA - The oil kingdom also has been a major host of U.S. military forces for years, with about 10,000 American troops based there now.
Prince Sultan Air Base, where about 50 U.S. warplanes are based, is home to a Combined Air Operations Center that served as a communications hub for American and allied forces in the Afghanistan campaign last year.
Air Force fighters based at Prince Sultan enforce the no-fly zone over southern Iraq, along with Air Force combat planes based in Kuwait and Navy fighter aircraft flying from an aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf.
Still uncertain is whether the Saudi royal family will allow the United States to use the air operations center in a war with Iraq or allow combat missions to be flown from Saudi soil.
QATAR - The U.S. military has engaged in a major buildup recently in this tiny gulf nation, establishing a new air operations center at Al Udeid Air Base that could be used as a substitute for the one in Saudi Arabia.
Al Udeid features the longest runway in the gulf - 15,000 feet - and has been improved in recent months to accommodate U.S. fighters, bombers, transports, tankers and spy planes.
"This will be a key base for fighter/bomber aircraft, air-to-air refueling KC-10 and KC-135 tankers and JSTARS reconnaissance aircraft," Adm. Baker predicted in a recent analysis for the Center for Defense Information, or CDI.
"Expect Gen. Tommy Franks, U.S. CENTCOM commander, to run the war from this base," he added.
Gen. Franks, criticized by some for running the Afghanistan campaign from Tampa, is to move his command to Qatar next month as part of an exercise called Internal Look '03. The purpose is to test a new "deployable headquarters" consisting of mobile metal buildings and an array of computer and communications gear, said Marine Lt. Col. David Lapan, a Pentagon spokesman.
"In the past, the exercise was usually conducted in Tampa or elsewhere in the United States," Lt. Col. Lapan noted.
TURKEY - Incirlik Air Base in southern Turkey, 570 miles from Baghdad, has hosted 30 to 50 U.S. and British warplanes and about 2,000 U.S. military personnel for years as they enforce the northern no-fly zone in Iraq.
"The numbers fluctuate depending on what's going on," a senior Air Force officer said of the aircraft, speaking on condition of anonymity. "We move forces depending on the demands of the moment."
F-117A stealth fighter-bombers and F-16, F-15 and other U.S. warplanes could fly from Incirlik in the event of a war.
BAHRAIN - About 1,000 sailors are stationed in Bahrain, headquarters for the 5th Fleet. Another 15,000 are aboard the fleet's ships, including more than 8,000 in the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln's 10-ship battle group, which is in the gulf.
Also attached to the 5th Fleet is the Nassau Amphibious Ready Group, which includes about 2,000 combat-ready Marines aboard the USS Nassau amphibious assault ship, sailing in the northern Arabian Sea. The ship also carries six AV-8B Harrier jump jet attack planes.
The Lincoln carries about 50 F-18, F-14 and other combat aircraft, now being used to help enforce the southern no-fly zone in Iraq. Ships in the battle group can fire Tomahawk cruise missiles.
The aircraft carrier USS Constellation, with another 50 warplanes, is on its way to the gulf to relieve the Lincoln. But Adm. Baker noted that both battle groups could stay for a war.
Three other carriers and their battle groups also could be available: the USS George Washington, now in the Mediterranean, the USS Harry S Truman and the USS Kitty Hawk.
The Truman is scheduled to relieve the George Washington in December, but both could be sent to the gulf, if necessary. The Kitty Hawk is deployed in Japan and could reach the gulf in about a week. Special operations troops used the Kitty Hawk as a base during the Afghanistan campaign.
OMAN - B-1 bombers and other U.S. combat aircraft flew from Oman during the Afghanistan campaign and could fly from there again in a war with Iraq.
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES - U.S. reconnaissance and refueling planes, U2 spy planes and unmanned surveillance drones have flown from Al Dahfra air base in the UAE.
JORDAN - U.S. special operations troops took part in an exercise in Jordan in October with Jordanian, Omani, Kuwaiti and British troops, according to the CDI. There also have been reports that U.S. and British special operations troops could mount commando raids into western Iraq to destroy Scud missiles that could be fired at Israel, if a war begins.
DIEGO GARCIA - The British island, about 3,400 miles south of Iraq in the Indian Ocean, was a base for B-52 bombers in the first Gulf War and the Afghanistan campaign. They could fly from there again in another war with Iraq, and the Air Force could move Missouri-based B-2 stealth long-range bombers there and to Fairford, England.
HORN OF AFRICA - On the other side of the Arabian peninsula from Iraq, about 800 U.S. special operations troops and other forces are based in Djibouti. Central Command also is establishing a task force of Marines and other forces whose mission includes hunting al-Qaeda terrorists in the region.
The 2,200-strong 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit has been in the area conducting exercises and, if needed, could be assigned a role in any war with Iraq.
Unlike the Gulf War of 1991, many experts think a new conflict could begin with a "rolling start" in which Air Force and Navy aircraft begin bombing Iraqi air defenses, suspected weapons of mass destruction sites and other key targets while ground troops are flown to the region from Germany and the United States.
By launching airstrikes at an early stage, said retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Shepperd, "Not only do you take care of the targets that you're going to have to take care of, but you prevent him from doing anything against your troops during the buildup.
"Last time, he allowed us to build up for six months and then attack," Maj. Gen. Shepperd recalled. "This time, I'm sure he would like to attack our troops during the buildup, and if he's going to use weapons of mass destruction, it would be an ideal time to attack them."
Maj. Gen. Shepperd estimated that the military would need "the better part of two months" to complete a buildup to 250,000 troops with all their supplies.
Rear Adm. Baker thinks the Central Command already has a strong enough base that "we can be ready to go in 30 days."
Email rwhittle@dallasnews.com
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