Posted on 11/10/2002 6:36:30 AM PST by Theodore R.
Black vote key to Senate runoff John Hill / Louisiana Gannett News Posted on November 10, 2002 BATON ROUGE - Louisiana Democrats have a long-standing formula for winning a statewide race: Get 95 percent of the black vote and 30 percent of the white vote.
But the only way that formula works is if Democrats can get high-profile black leaders to lead their local supporters and organizations and get black voters to the polls on behalf of their candidate.
That did not happen in Tuesday's U.S. Senate primary election and will be a key issue for U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu to address if she hopes to retain her seat in the Dec. 7 runoff.
"If Mary had gotten the African-American vote that (U.S. Rep.) Chris John got, she would have won," said U.S. Senate John Breaux, also a Democrat, in a post-election analysis.
To win in the runoff, Landrieu must meet with those black leaders who were lukewarm in the primary, Breaux said, specifically mentioning state Sens. Cleo Fields, D-Baton Rouge, Greg Tarver, D-Shreveport, and Don Cravins, D-Lafayette.
Fields, who ran against Landrieu and beat her in the primary in the 1993 gubernatorial race, did nothing in the primary. And at this point, Fields says he's unsure what he will do with his organization in the runoff. "I don't know if I will be up and running on election day."
His beef is that Landrieu and white Democrats, in general, "take the black vote for granted." Fields also was turned off by Landrieu running commercials talking about her support of Republican President George W. Bush.
"One Republican Party is enough," Fields said.
The formula, which Fields acknowledged is the basis for Democratic gains, means Landrieu has got to figure out how to increase black voter turnout and still appeal to 3 out of every 10 whites.
Tarver said he and Cravins, who was tending to an ill mother in a Shreveport hospital, talked things over Wednesday and agreed they would talk with Landrieu and Republican Suzanne Haik Terrell before making a decision. It is conceivable they could endorse a Republican, Tarver said.
"It would be hard, but it is not impossible," Tarver said, noting that he had endorsed the re-election of U.S. Rep. Jim McCrery, R-Shreveport, based "on what he could deliver to the black community."
"We are concerned about who can deliver services to the community and not take the black vote for granted," Tarver said. He and Cravins "agreed we would sit down and decide what we are going to do."
What Tarver and Cravins did in the primary was to put out ballots through their communities that endorsed not only Landrieu but also the Rev. Henry Brown, a black New Orleans minister who got 2 percent of the primary vote.
The Democratic strategy probably will include bringing in Democratic leaders who can rally the traditional Democratic base of African-Americans, organized labor, working people, professional women and senior citizens, said state Democratic Party Chairman Ben Jeffers of Baton Rouge.
The star Democrat is former President Bill Clinton, who came to New Orleans before to help energize the Democratic vote as well as pull together African-American leaders.
But Jeffers wouldn't say whether Clinton will come this time. "When you have people who can help energize your base, you welcome their help," Jeffers said.
Bringing in Clinton is not without risk, though, said Ed Renwick, president of the Loyola Institute of Politics in New Orleans. "Clinton can energize the black base, but he can also energize Republicans. I would hate to make that decision."
Republicans are not without their African-American political stars, either. Renwick said he would expect Republicans to bring in Secretary of State Colin Powell to help Terrell counterbalance the Democratic runoff.
But Terrell said at week's end there were no plans to bring in Powell. However, she does expect Bush, with whom she spoke Wednesday morning, to come either right before or right after the president's trip to Europe later this month.
Like the Republicans, who also have to stir up their core base of supporters and hope Bush can help do that, the Democrats continue to look for new ways to rally the vote, Jeffers said.
However, he said, "we clearly want people likes Sen. Fields, Sen. Tarver and Sen. Cravins. They have always been good Democrats. And this is a clear Democrat vs. Republican race, a clear philosophical race."
For Fields, it's not so clear.
"When you go to a Republican rally, you know you are at a Republican rally. When you go to a Democratic rally and hear people speak, you have to ask, 'Where am I?' ... Democrats need to define who they are."
For Landrieu, her appeal to white voters as having been closely aligned with the Republican vote turned off rather than out black voters.
"The first commercial out talked about how close she is to George Bush and how she votes with him 74 percent of the time," Fields said. "She just needs to come to the conclusion that she can't out-Republican the Republicans."
And then there's the whole issue of an increasingly diverse black electorate.
Louisiana black voters are becoming more independent. Each year, there is a 2 percent increase in the number of African-American voters who are registering as independents, a shift away from the Democratic Party.
Fields, who works with the Rev. Jesse Jackson in voter registration drives in the African-American community, said it's because younger voters are more independent philosophically.
"The Democratic Party had our grandmothers and grandfathers who voted Democratic even when they didn't hear the messages they wanted to hear. Grandsons and granddaughters want to hear the message they are looking for ... and are insulted when they are taken for granted," Fields said.
"As I have said, if you don't respect us, don't expect us," he said. "You can't disrespect somebody and then expect them to be there for her."
Landrieu, when asked last week about what she would do to reach out to African-American voters, dodged answering but said she would reach out to all voters as someone who can work in a nonpartisan way on behalf of all Louisiana citizens.
When pressed, she did say she would welcome the support of Sens. Fields, Tarver and Cravins, among other leaders. "I am going to reach out to get all the support I can get," Landrieu said.
But it is a political tightrope walk for Landrieu: how to mobilize African-American votes while at the same time appeal to moderate and conservative white voters who voted for other candidates.
"Black turnout was significantly lower than white turnout," Renwick said. "She has to solve that problem."
It won't be an easy one to solve, either.
Southern University political scientist Frank Ransburg pointed out there are 700,000 black registered voters in Louisiana, but in the primary, Landrieu got a total vote of 572,000, white and black.
Landrieu "has to get out the black vote," Ransburg said. "They have also got to get out the labor and working people vote. That election is 2 1/2 weeks before Christmas, on a Saturday. She is competing with Santa Claus and holiday shopping."
Will the blacks ever learn? I think not. The dems are slowly but surely polarizing the American political scene into one of color.
And, the dems continue to rely on the stupidity of blacks to vote for the dems, rather than for themselves. The scene is a slave galley owned and operated by the dems. A dem precinct chairman opens a locked hatch in the deck and blacks, thin and shackled hand and foot, climb out of the hatch, shuffle over to the ballot box where they are handed a ballot by another dem and deposit the ballot in a box marked "dem votes only." The blacks the shuffle over to another hatch on go back down into the darkness.
Sure, there are some fat black race baiters, many of them clergymen, who are fat and happy but what does the average black voter get from the dems? Nothing! They don't get much from the good guys, either, but at least the Republicans don't take them for granted.
If you want on (or off) of my black conservative ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail. (And no, you don't have to be black to be on the list!)
Extra warning: this is a high-volume ping list.
I have an idea that includes running off of a very high cliff.
I don't think the blacks will be energized at all, but if whites stay home and Landrieu heavily carries New Orleans, she will win.
Would they then sue Santa?
No, not much, other than the Emancipation Proclaimation and the right to vote.
But I can only guess they enjoy the imaginary handouts...Because the RATS talk a good game, but deliver little...Unless you give them huge campaign donations...
If he didn't, his opinions are just that opinions.
Republicans are itching to vote against Landrieu who stole the last election.
Landrieu will not get 95% of the black vote or 30% of the White.
What do the blacks have to gain by voting for her?
What do they care which white woman is a Senator?
In other words, 95% of the black vote for the Democrats, 70% of the white vote for the Republicans. I'm concerned about a body politic that is so racially polarized.
Where does the blame lie? I'd say with a Democrat party that panders to black voters, and horrendous black leadership that reinforces all the worst fears and tendencies of black Americans.
The Senate is finally facing up to the biggest of all the many scandals about last November's elections: the stuffing of the ballot box with fraudulent and paid "votes." The Senate Rules Committee just ordered a full investigation of Mary Landrieu's narrow 5,788-vote victory over Woody Jenkins for U.S. Senator from Louisiana.
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