Posted on 11/10/2002 12:41:23 AM PST by sarcasm
WASHINGTON — A centuries-old dream of merchants and sailors, the fabled Northwest Passage across the ice-covered top of the world, may become open for commercial shipping as soon as five summers from now.
Climate records show that the Arctic zone is warming much faster than midlatitude and tropical regions of our planet, causing ice to melt at an accelerating rate. Some experts say the polar ice cap could disappear during peak months of summer well before the end of this century.
The ice reportedly shrank more dramatically this year than at any time since detailed records have been kept.
"The extent of Arctic ice appears to have reached a record low in 2002," said Mark Serreze, a researcher at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo.
In addition, there is a Northeast Passage along the upper rim of Siberia that is even more likely to open up than the Northwest Passage north of Canada, according to a report released this year by the U.S. Arctic Research Commission, a federal agency.
The Northeast Passage, also known as the Northern Sea Route, would be open between Japan and Scandinavia for two to three months in summer and early fall, the commission reported.
"On the Russian side, it is a much shorter way from Japan to Europe to go north rather than south," said John Walsh, an Arctic scientist at the University of Illinois in Champaign-Urbana.
In one of the few advantageous side effects of climate warming, a Northwest Passage threading 900 miles through a tangle of islands about 500 miles north of the Arctic Circle could be open to shipping for one or two months a year five to 10 years from now, the Arctic commission concluded.
So far, only icebreakers and specially hardened ships have made it all the way from the Atlantic to the Pacific through this northwest route.
The northwestern path through the ice would cut the travel distance between Europe and Asia by 6,800 miles, compared with the standard route through the Panama Canal. For supertankers, which now must sail all the way around Cape Horn at the tip of South America, the trip would be shortened by 11,800 miles.
According to the Arctic commission, the new summertime sea lanes will open the way for "significant navigable opportunities in the Arctic."
"It sounds interesting, to say the least," said Dan Larson, a spokesman for British Petroleum, the largest oil and natural gas shipper in Canada. "We would be interested in any way to utilize the fleet more efficiently. It would make good business sense. But it's not something the company is looking at right now."
Space satellites have been measuring shrinkage of polar ice since 1979. The area covered by ice in summer has shrunk about 10 percent during that time.
The extent of the ice in August apparently reached a record minimum for the month, according to the latest data collected by Julienne Stroeve and her colleagues at the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
A further reduction was expected for September, when the coverage of Arctic ice usually is at its smallest.
Rising temperatures are blamed for the rapid ice melt.
"Today's Arctic temperatures are the highest of at least the past 400 years, possibly longer," the Arctic commission's report said.
According to Walsh, one climate model predicts the Arctic ice cap will vanish entirely during summers by 2050. Four other models, however, say some ice will remain.
"Eventually the whole cap will disappear, if not by 2050, sometime after that," Walsh said.
It is unlikely that large amounts of Alaska or Canadian oil or gas would be shipped through the Northwest Passage. Even though the trip would be much shorter, tankers would face higher costs for insurance, double hulls to prevent leaks and the unpredictability of polar weather.
"The key is whether you can count on it," Walsh said. "It's not something you can bank on."
Canada is reported to be unhappy about possible pollution and disturbance of habitats occupied by seals, walruses and polar bears as well as the native Inuit people.
Legal issues also exist. Canada claims sovereignty over the northwestern route. The United States considers it to be international waters. Russia asserts total control of its northern seas.
The search for an ice-free passage across the top of the world has been going on for more than 400 years. Many adventurers froze to death, drowned or starved in the attempt.
In 1576, Martin Frobisher, an English navigator, made the first of several fruitless expeditions in search of a northwestern route to the Orient. Twenty years later, Dutch sailors tried in vain to complete the Northeast Passage north of Siberia.
Norwegian explorer Roald Amundsen, later the first man to reach the South Pole, was the first to make it through the Northwest Passage, in 1906.
The first commercial vessel, a specially strengthened U.S. tanker, the Manhattan, was escorted through the passage in 1969 by American and Canadian icebreakers. No ordinary commercial ship has ever gone through it.
Why it was Great-great-great-great-great-great-great . . . . . . . . great grandpappy George Bush. He wouldn't stop burning wood in his fireplace every winter.
Important to note that comparing one region's rate to another is meaningless. 2002 was a cooler summer than previous years. Anything that is surmised after this error will be prone to error as well.
Some experts say....reportedly....appears to have...more likely to...etc. Suppositions all.
400 years ago or possibly longer?
Now he's really stretching it. Just more Global Balony "scare the people" tactics. SOSDD.
Not surprising at all.
The documentary film-makers are usually left-wingers.
They'd go out of their way to avoid filming the babes.
They're not exactly politicly correct, ya know.
People in the lower 48 can't be convinced to save the arctic tundra if they knew beautiful babes lived up there.
We're supposed to feel guilty about the old, haggard and butt-ugly toothless ones surviving on blubber.
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