Posted on 11/08/2002 7:53:03 PM PST by blam
Mobilisation gathers pace as America lays down plans to strike within weeks
Julian Borger in Washington and Richard Norton-Taylor
Saturday November 9, 2002
The Guardian
Even as the UN weapons inspectors pack their bags for a daunting and uncertain trip to Iraq later this month, the Pentagon is steadily building up its forces in the region and is expected to be ready for battle by as early as next month, military analysts said yesterday. The Bush administration is deeply sceptical of the UN inspectors' chances of disarming Saddam Hussein's regime and is convinced that a conflict is almost inevitable. The Pentagon wants to be in a position to strike quickly if and when a crisis over inspections is reached, and would prefer that moment of truth to come on its timetable - when it has its troops and equipment in place and before the cool winter months are over.
In contrast to the Bush administration, the Blair government has been extremely wary of being accused of sabre-rattling.
Military commanders have been increasingly frustrated at the failure of their political masters to give the go-ahead to a British force because of their reluctance to be seenas "interfering" in the diplomatic process, Whitehall official said yesterday.
However, Britain is poised to announce the mobilisation of thousands of troops and reservists, probably to coincide with the seven-day deadline for Baghdad to declare its intention to comply with the UN resolution.
"We will have to put our money where our mouth is," a British defence official said. British military commanders have drawn up plans for a ground force of up to 15,000 troops. Naval and air support would increase this to about 20,000.
The speed the US could go into battle would depend on the size of the force the Pentagon wanted to use. A light force could go into battle by early December, according to Patrick Garrett, a military analyst at GlobalSecurity.org, a Washington thinktank.
"If it's going to be a force of 130,000, that has been talked about, I would be looking at some time in mid-December," Mr Garrett said.
Colin Robinson, an analyst at the Centre for Defence Information in Washington, believes a conflict is more likely after the New Year, partly for political reasons.
"We believe its going to start in January or February," he said "The inspection process has to given time to play out, and it's the best time of year."
Mr Robinson also pointed out that by early January, the US will have gathered a formidable armada in the seas around Iraq to match its naval presence during the first Gulf war in 1991.
The USS Lincoln aircraft carrier and its naval battle group is in the Gulf, and the USS Washington is in the Mediterranean. The USS Constellation battle group, with 75 aircraft and 8,000 sailors, left San Diego earlier this month, four months ahead of schedule, bound for the North Arabian sea.
Another aircraft carrier, the USS Truman, completed its final preparatory exercises last week, and is taking on provisions at its base in Virginia.
On the other side of the country, the USS Vinson aircraft carrier and is being prepared for departure from its base in Washington state some time in December.
In San Diego the USS Nimitz is also due for deployment, and the carrier based in Japan, the USS Kitty Hawk, has left harbour for exercises at an undisclosed location.
The Pentagon would then have up to seven aircraft carriers at hand for an offensive by January. However, the sailors on board the USS Washington are reported to be nearing exhaustion after an extended tour and it could be withdrawn. There are also some questions over whether the USS Nimitz will be used; disciplinary problems among its crew have been reported. That would still leave the navy with five carriers, as many as it had in the region for the first Gulf war.
General Tommy Franks, the head of the US central command, is due to arrive in Qatar at the end of this month with 600 of his senior staff officers, ostensibly for a week-long exercise, but Pentagon officials say it is quite likely a working command post will be left in place after the war games are over.
The headquarters of two of the army and marine units likely to play a leading role in an Iraqi conflict have been ordered from their bases in the US and Germany to Kuwait, where there are already more than 10,000 troops. The total number of US troops in the Gulf region is thought to be as high as 50,000. Huge amounts of armour and heavy equipment from stockpiles in the US and Germany are bound for the Gulf to add to the supplies already in the region or floating on military transport ships off Diego Garcia in the Indian ocean.
B1 heavy bombers have been sighted in Oman, and preparations are being made to deploy B2s, the batwing stealth bombers most likely to strike the first blow in any possible conflict, at Diego Garcia and at the Fairford RAF base in Gloucestershire.
The number of RAF aircraft in the region may be tripled with an increase in the number of Jaguars based at Incirlik in Turkey, Tornado bombers in Kuwait, and Tornado fighters in Saudia Arabia which are likely to move to Qatar. British military commanders have already joined their US counterparts in Qatar, where the US is setting up an operational headquarters.
Mr Robinson said the other "flashing light" indicating the scale and immediacy of the military build-up was the orders issued last month for the transfer of the US army's German-based 5th corps headquarters to Kuwait by the middle of next month. The headquarter staff of the 1st marine expeditionary corps have also been instructed to move from California to the Gulf.
Navy cargo ships have taken to sea to transport armour and other equipment to Gulf bases. Two of those transporters, the Fisher and the Bob Hope, left from Florida. The Bellatrix, reportedly loaded with mobile bridges, has set sail from California.
"If you really want an indicator they are planning an invasion, its bridging equipment because you need it to cross the Tigris and Euphrates," Mr Garrett said. "And now they're shipping it. That's pretty clear."
What's this, Travis.
I know they are ash and trash crews, but you do need someone to haul the beans and bullets.
Iknow the current occupant of the white house is serious when they get called up.
I know we are in trouble when I get called up.
I thought that also and hope you are correct.
Yup. It doesn't have their normal leftist crap.
Referring to the Terrorists: "They have no moral inhibition on the slaughter of the innocent. If they could have murdered not 7,000 but 70,000, does anyone doubt they would have done so and rejoiced in it? There is no compromise possible with such people, no meeting of minds, no point of understanding with such terror. Just a choice: defeat it or be defeated by it. And defeat it we must!"
Tony Bair, Prime Minister , Great Britain
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.