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To: RipSawyer
"This is creating a real estate bubble which will soon burst when people realize that their homes are worth less than what they owe and they would have been better off to sell and rent a place to live. You don't have to agree with me, just remember what you are reading and look back in a year or two and see if you still think I am crazy."

Not to burst your bubble (so to speak), but every short seller and retired hedge fund "guru" is spouting the same talking point about a "real estate crash" as if he came up with that theory all on his own.

But why look at theories when we have historical facts. We've seen, in just the previous generation, the entire systemic collapse of the American Savings and Loan system. It was the 1980's, and real-estate speculation had created a bubble in commercial real estate. The eventual real estate crash drove localized commercial real down some 50% in the areas hardest hit, while the national average turned out to be something like a 3% whack off of commercial real estate average prices. Presaging this collapse was a spike in unemployment, inflation, and an increase in the percentage of homeowners who were more than 30 days late on their payments up to some 6.5% of the mortgage-paying population.

Now, if you are TRULY worried about a modern real estate collapse, what you should be interested in tracking are the figures for current unemployment as well as the percentage of mortgages that are more than 30 days past due.

If you don't have access to those figures then you aren't in a position to seriously worry about the problem. At best you would merely be repeating speculation from others.

If you do have access to those figures, then you'll quickly see that we are today nowhere near the dismal shape that we were in back in the late 1980's.

But I will admit that the world can always change on a dime. If those figures spike, then owning real estate is historically a bad idea. During that "crash", your investment might be devalued by as much as 50% for as long as a decade (worst case). It's happened before, after all.

98 posted on 11/06/2002 7:20:09 PM PST by Southack
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To: Southack
I read somewhere, either in "The Great Depression of 1990", by Ravi Batra, or "The Great Reckoning" by Lord somebody in the early 90's that even in the Great Depression home prices dropped no more than I think 10%.

Hell, in the crash if the early 90's, prices here dropped about 30%, but no more, reason being that everyone still needs a place to live, so demand doesn't really abate, even in bad times, as living quarters are not a luxury item, per se. After the correction of '87, the lowest real estate prices in NY were to be found in 1994, which is when I bought.

120 posted on 11/09/2002 3:24:44 PM PST by Dec31,1999
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