Posted on 11/06/2002 1:12:03 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster
China's pretender Zeng steward of Jiang's legacy
[LatelineNews: 2002-11-5] BEIJING - Patronage is a potent force in Chinese politics, and perhaps none of the up-and-coming "fourth generation" Communist Party leaders knows its powers better than Zeng Qinghong. As head of the party's influential Organisation Department until last month, Zeng had long-time boss and benefactor President Jiang Zemin to thank for a job in which he had a hand in some of the most important decisions made in China.
Chinese sources say that when the party holds its 16th congress starting on Friday and picks new leaders, Zeng will have Jiang to thank again for a slot in China's top policy body, the all powerful Politburo Standing Committee.
In late October, Zeng stepped down as organisation chief, a move the sources said was a clear sign he would be promoted at the congress.
As with most of China's "fourth generation" leaders, outsiders know little about the rocket scientist turned party apparatchik. Analysts say that doesn't matter for now.
Zeng's political identity is inseparable from that of his boss. If he makes it into the seven-man Standing Committee it would be as steward of his mentor's legacy and a key avenue through which Jiang could wield power in retirement, they say.
"He is a good organisation man who has been the major source of strength for Jiang Zemin," said one Asian diplomat. "His accomplishments are reflected through the prism of Jiang Zemin."
As Jiang's chief of staff -- and hatchet man -- for much of the past two decades, the ambitious native of coastal Jiangsu province has arguably given as much as he's taken.
When Jiang was promoted to Beijing from Shanghai in 1989, he brought along his right-hand-man Zeng, 63, a "princeling" whose father was a revolution-era general and mother one of the few women who made the Long March.
Some even say patron and protege have similar mannerisms.
And Jiang introduced Zeng to U.S. President George W. Bush before heir apparent Vice President Hu Jintao had a chance to meet the head of the world's only superpower.
Jiang, 76, is expected to retire as party chief and be replaced by Hu.
READY FOR BATTLE
A seat on the Standing Committee will be a leap for Zeng, now one of two alternate members of the 22-seat Politburo, but not a move without precedent. Jiang lifted Zeng from the shadows to his current position in 1997.
And Hu catapulted into the Standing Committee when paramount leader Deng Xiaoping endorsed him in 1992, never serving in the larger Politburo, the usual entry point to China's top echelon.
But promoting his top aide may prove difficult for Jiang.
Zeng played a crucial role in his boss's move to Beijing, helping him eliminate party opponents and consolidate his grip on the military, an institution whose support was vital to securing Jiang's political longevity.
In doing Jiang's dirty work, Zeng earned enemies.
"Zeng Qinghong is not popular within the party," said one Western diplomat. "He's been a hatchet man one too many times."
This unpopularity was behind the failure of at least two rumoured bids by Jiang in recent years to garner a full Politburo membership for Zeng, some analysts say.
The Beijing-trained engineer is also widely viewed as a key figure in Jiang's influential "Shanghai gang" of leaders who cut their teeth in China's financial hub but are frowned upon by other provincial leaders.
Most of the other "fourth generation" up-and-comers made names for themselves in the provinces. Hu Jintao, for instance, served in far-away Tibet and Gansu and southern Guizhou.
COMPETITIVE AND COOPERATIVE
Many analysts interpreted widespread rumours that Jiang was refusing to retire as brinkmanship so he could gain leverage to shoe-horn Zeng into the Standing Committee.
Others say Zeng is so crafty and well-connected he could have entered the Politburo easily if he had tried. Zeng consistently makes analysts' short lists for the Standing Committee.
As head of the Organisation Department, he had a major say in personnel issues -- including promotions and demotions -- within the 66 million-strong party, the government and the military. He also helped oversee the agenda of this congress, analysts say.
Although his relationship with Hu remains murky and many see them as rivals, others says they have been smart enough to avoid open conflict.
"Evidence suggests that Hu and Zeng have formed a relationship that is both competitive and cooperative," said Cheng Li, China expert at Hamilton College in New York.
But if Zeng makes the cut, his new job would set him up as a key player in the post-Jiang era where, if Hu falters, Zeng will be well placed to swoop in, analysts said.
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