Posted on 11/05/2002 4:40:14 AM PST by akash
Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf has approved the acquisition of an anti-ballistic missile system from the US, at an estimated over 1.5 billion dollars, to be deployed at key sensitive installations and nuclear facilities, Kyodo news agency quoting authoritative defence sources reported on Tuesday.
The sources told the Japanese agency, on condition of anonymity, that the defence ministry has narrowed down its choices to the Patriot Air Defence System, the Nike Hercules missiles and the Hawk missile system.
The deal is estimated to cost more than 1.5 billion dollars and would be in addition to the military purchase that Pakistan has been negotiating with the US under the aegis of the Pakistan-US Defence Consultative Group, which met in Islamabad in September this year.
Washington has lifted a 1990 ban on supply of military equipment to Pakistan after Musharraf backed the US in its war against terrorism following the Sept 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in the US.
The sources said preliminary talks have been held with the US, which reportedly has expressed its willingness to supply an anti-missile system to Pakistan to discourage further missile proliferation in the region.
How do you figure that? Why wouldn't you want these guys to have an ABM system? Remember even Reagan suggested that SDI could have a peaceful impact if it was shared.
If we are targets of "rogue states" tehn so is Pakistan. And if they only have a few nukes for deterrence, then they're more likely to hav to use them if hit by, say, Iraq. And if they are fully decked out in PAC-3 missiles, if we want to wipe Pakistan out, well, we still could in a heartbeat.
This is a GREAT deal.
Who cares if we sell them a bunchajunk? It may be the old PAC-1 shrapnel system like was used to some success in Israel in 91. We may keep the good stuff to protect us from Mexico!
India has been lukewarm (at best) in their support of the war on terror. Pakistan has been a big help (and took a pretty big risk domesticly to do so.)
This sends a pretty clear message that we will stand by those countries that stand by us. It also sends a message to countries (like India) that haven't stood by us, that we aren't going to stand by them.
India's leaders are probably asking themselves "what do we need to do to equal back up the balance of power between India and Pakistan?" The answer is pretty clear. Start cooperating with the US war on terror.
The article writer probably saw the word "Patriot" and associated it with shooting down Scuds in the Gulf War, and assumed the others were things like it. They aren't. We have done a lot of work on missle defenses in the last 10 years, and there are a number of much more capable systems than Patriot these days. None of these is one of them.
"Pakistan seeks SAM deal with US" would have been a more accurate headline.
I don't want to believe this report...implications are scary!!!
The country is a basket case and extremely unstable and *probably* always will be. The last thing they need is military hardware of any sort, and anti-missile defense won't help stabilize the region in any way. In fact, it might destabilize the whole of SA. Would these defense systems protect Pakistan against India's missiles? If so, then what happens to India's MAD policy which they use as deterrence? Any time now, our "friend" Musharraf could be overthrown by the mullahs and jihadis in Pakistan, and yes, they would nuke India in a second.
IF this story is true, the deal has been on the table since September of last year. Now I understand exactly why the Indians went to the Israelis for help.
Ok, for the most part, finish your thought!
So let's say Pakistan is a rogue state. Let's say tomorrow Osama himself takes over Pakistan, with a dozen ICBM's and a full fledged ABM system to protect them.
Israel still has sufficient nukes to overwhelm and destroy Pakistan on its own, ABMs or not. Not to mention that the US could not be blackmailed with such a worst case scenario. Pakistan could be turned to a greasy glass smudge by the US before they got their first demands on AlJazeera.
Ok, now let's be realistic.
Pakistan relies on MAD right now without a key component, namely, "ASSURED DESTRUCTION." Pakistan CANNOT guarantee with its meager arsenal that it can obliterate attackers. If India or Iraq invades or feints invasion, then Pakistan has no choice but to shoot its wad, but folks like Saddam might be tempted to think they should try anyway cuz they'll probably be able to survive and then Pakistan will be defenseless. Very bad, and very touchy.
So, let's figure out the following. If Pakistan can reduce an attacker's chance of success, then they effectively multiply their force arsenal....but without additional nukes. HINT: THIS IS A GOOD THING!
The only alternative for Pakistan and others is to continually raise the stakes in a multi-lateral MAD game...Middle East style...and that ain't good.
The plan of SELLING them the old hardware while upgrading ours...sounds like some bright thinkers in the White House to me.
Start with #16 and let me know what you think.
Well, the Patriots used in the Gulf War were indeed ancient anti-aircraft technology with shrapnel warheads...shotgun approach. This popular name is continued on to the new generation PATRIOT ADVANCED CAPABILITY - 3 (PAC-3) missile which is Hit-to-Kill and includes far more advanced and integrated radar. So technically, the PAC-2 and PAC-3 are also Patriot programs, but there are plenty of other from BMDO.
I doubt W is talking about selling the Paks PAC-3 technology, but why not sell them some old technology to prtect them long enough to help keep them from launching retaliatory nukes?
I don't follow missile defense systems, and my ignorance of military toys and hardware is complete, but I fail to see how this is a good thing. I don't think it makes the Indians feel a bit better knowing we are selling anti-missile systems to a country whose citizens have publicly called for nuking Indian cities.
I also disagree this particular sale will do anything to stop missile proliferation. That, IMHO, is a very dangerous assumption in this situation.
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