DEMS PULL AHEAD (Dick Morris 100% love fest for Zogby. Is he Right or wrong?)

NY Post ^ | 11/4/02 | Dick Morris

[finnman69]

Contrast this to Dick Morris's prediction. I want this up for the record.

Arkansas: Democrat Mark Pryor has gone from a 45-45 tie against GOP incumbent Tim Hutchinson to a decisive 55-44 advantage. Pryor, the son of former Arkansas Sen. and Gov. David Pryor, has capitalized on Hutchinson's apparent hypocrisy in leaving his wife to marry a young member of his staff while advocating family values as a conservative Senator.

[Reelect President Dubya]

Zogby was right on the Presidential election but way off on some other huge races such as his Lazio over Hillary prediction.

He misunderestimated the amount of Democrat election fraud in New York.

[willgetsome]

Morris is just trying to be provacative.

Just think, Morris has to "out talk" all of the talking heads during this election season. Otherwise, he's just another guy with an opinion.

[finnman69]

TUNROUT TURNOUT TURNOUT
I was very encouraged to see reports of GOP get out the vote drives hyped up this year. We are in the final mile of a marathon, so lets kick that list mile out. The finish line is in sight and we are about to break some records.

[MissAmericanPie]

Turn out is paramount, tomorrow when I get to work if I find out the people I have registered to vote have not made it to the polls I intend to send them one at a time and tell them not to return to work until they have voted, lol.

Is that going too far?

[bigjoesaddle]

South Dakota: Endangered Democratic incumbent Tim Johnson appears to have salvaged his seat from a strong challenge by Republican Congressman John Thune. Trailing 43-45 two weeks ago, Johnson now leads by a comfortable 52-47.

Zogby changed this one this morning on a morning show, saying it is "very fluid", and its within a point now.

[SHKMAN1212]

I subscribe to the Zogby polls and when you look at how he arrives at his numbers it becomes clear where the major shift came from. Zogby attempts to incorporate "leaning" voters into his final numbers (which is why his numbers have few, if any, undecideds). When you pull the tabs on the individual races nearly all of the races that show big Dem games are based on including these leaning votes.

In Colorado, for example, Zogby incorporates 19.3% of leaning voters into Strickland's column while only 5.2% of leaners are applied to Allard. Now, if these less than committed voters do turn out in the numbers that Zogby predicts then his conclusions may be sound, but I really doubt his numbers end up being accurate.

[PhiKapMom]

That tells me we are in good shape in those races! LOL!!!!

[NY Catholic]

Post #37 tells me that Fraud is in the air.

[ChiMark]

A poll in Illinois has Ryan (R) 1 point ahead of Blagojevich (D) .For months these same polls Had boogovich
leading by 10 to 12 points! What is happening here? A ten point swing in one week!

[The Old Hoosier]

Morris is being paid by Democrats this cycle. I can't figure out any other explanation for his outlying statements of recent weeks.

[Bombard]

Voters in states tend to want change every now and then. The odds are against the GOP this election as it has controled a number of govenors mansions for several terms. This more than anything is playing out in 2002. The press hardly says anything about this fact.

[Mark17]

Please explain to me why people think 'rat's are better for the economy when all they want to do is raise taxes. Higher taxes are NEVER better for the economy. DUH!

I think it is because the average Joe Citizen out there, is stupid and uneducated, and doesn't pay attention the way most of us do.

[finnman69]

Zogby changed this one this morning on a morning show, saying it is "very fluid", and its within a point now.

ROFL Zogby hedging his bets now. RUH ROH RATS!

[finnman69]

DOW 8718.57 NASDAQ 1416.08 S&P 922.91 10YR 102 12/32
+200.93 +2.36% +55.38 +4.07% +21.95 +2.44% -18/32 YIELD: 4.07% <p. Markets rallying for a GOP win.!

[Greek]

Late shift appears to favor GOP

By Richard Benedetto, USA TODAY

Key Senate races in Tuesday's congressional elections are too close to call, but Republicans appear to have gained strength in the final weekend as they fight to retain and perhaps add to their thin House majority.


A USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll this weekend shows that in House races, likely voters prefer Republicans to Democrats 51% -45%.

That marks a 9-point shift from two weeks ago, when Democrats led Republicans 49%-46%.

The GOP's 6-point advantage mirrors the lead Republicans held in the final days of the 1994 election, when they won control of the House of Representatives and Senate.

Frank Newport, Gallup Poll editor in chief, says the late GOP gain can be traced to three factors:

Jitters over the economy are declining. The poll found that those who said the economy was getting worse fell from 59% two weeks ago to 51% now.
"Democrats were counting on worry about the economy to boost them, and that decreased in the last two weeks," Newport said.

More Republicans than Democrats say they're more enthusiastic about voting than they were in the last off-year election in 1998.
Of those who said President Bush was a factor in their vote, respondents said 2-1 they were voting in favor of Bush, not against him. His job approval is 63%.
Control of the House is determined by the outcomes of 435 races, but what's known as the "generic ballot question" — which party's candidate will you vote for? — has been an accurate predictor of the House majority for 50 years.

Last-minute shifts are still possible as voters become more focused and party organizations gear up a get-out-the-vote push.

Labor unions and African-American churches tend to be most effective at mobilizing voters, which traditionally benefits Democrats. "But Republicans are more dependable voters," said Ross Baker, a Rutgers University political scientist. As candidates make their final push, the Senate campaign has come down to a handful of states. About 40 House districts still are considered tossups.

The tightness of the election is evident in five key states where USA TODAY measured Senate races. Four of the five are well within the polls' error margins:

In Missouri, Republican former congressman Jim Talent leads Sen. Jean Carnahan 48%-44%.
In Colorado, Republican Sen. Wayne Allard leads Democrat Tom Strickland 47%-45%.
In South Dakota, GOP congressman John Thune leads Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson 48%-45%.
In New Hampshire, Republican Rep. John Sununu leads Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen 46%-45%.
In Arkansas, Democrat Mark Pryor leads Republican Sen. Tim Hutchinson 51%-43%.
The state polls of 600 or more likely voters Wednesday-Saturday had error margins of +/- 4 points.

In the Senate, the parties are split 49-49 with one independent. Republicans hold a 223-208 House majority, with one independent.

[NEPA]

I've been getting glossy color fliers from the Rendell camp. Todays' fliers (2 of them) are all about Fisher raising taxes. They say Rendell is a tax cutter.

I don't know how I got on Rendell's mailing list unless his campaign searched county records for independents.

Anyway Fisher did NOT run a good campaign. He was a stealth candidate for way too long and then when he finally started running ads he might as well have been running as a Dem. I thought his cabby ads were pretty good though.

[opticoax]

I called the Massachusetts Republican Party last night and volunteered to be part of the phone bank tonight and to be a poll watcher tomorrow.

Needless to say, you can bet the big story on Wednesday will be the Dem pick-ups in governorships, but I hope Romney can pull this one out.

[Digger]

Unemployment up, auto sales in the tank, the Fed is expected to lower interest rates, on & on bad news BUT the markets go up. Then we want to talk about voter fraud - take a look here.

[dfwgator]

Zogby was wrong in many ways for the 2000 elections, but all of his mistakes cancelled each other out, thus he did get the total election results very close.

[Destructor]

"P.S.: Remember how Clinton lost Congress in 1994 and the resulting Republican arrogance led them to so alienate America that the president won re-election in a walk two years later? Could history repeat itself?"

Republican arrogance? Prior to November of 1994 the Republicans could not even voice opposition to the Dimocrat's legislation without being gaveled down, and told to shut up! What about the House Bank scandal? What about the House Post Office scandal? Don't even get me started on the legislation put forth by the Dimocrats that clearly went against the will of the people.

You're barking up the wrong tree! It's not the Republicans that are the enemy- it's the Dimocrats!!!