Posted on 11/04/2002 5:12:11 AM PST by BlackRazor
Poll: Shallenburger gains ground
The Eagle-KWCH poll now shows Republican Tim Shallenburger within striking distance of Kathleen Sebelius.
BY ALAN BJERGA
The Wichita Eagle
Voter support for Tim Shallenburger has surged in recent days to cut in half Kathleen Sebelius' early lead in the Kansas governor's race, according to the final campaign poll for The Wichita Eagle and KWCH 12 Eyewitness News.
The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA late last week, placed Sebelius' support at 51 percent and Shallenburger's at 44 percent among likely voters, with 5 percent undecided or planning to vote for other candidates.
The race could be even closer than that, since the margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 4 percentage points. That means Sebelius could have a little as 47 percent and Shallenburger could have as much as 48 percent support.
The race has closed since last week, when a poll showed support for Sebelius at 53 percent and support for Shallenburger at 38 percent.
Neither campaign expressed surprise that the race is tightening up as the Tuesday election nears.
"This is Kansas," a state where Republican candidates have a natural edge, Sebelius spokeswoman Nicole Corcoran-Basso said. "This is no shock at all."
The poll of 704 likely voters continued to show trends constant throughout the campaign.
Shallenburger carries about two-thirds of voters who describe themselves as Republican or "pro-life." Sebelius draws significant support from Republican voters and wins 60 percent support among women.
The swing to Shallenburger predominantly came among male, undecided and third-party voters, all of whom moved their preferences toward the state treasurer. Shallenburger also led in the Wichita area, where 50 percent of those surveyed supported him and 46 percent favored Sebelius.
Shallenburger spokesman Bob Murray said the SurveyUSA poll, which the campaign has criticized in the past when it showed wider Sebelius leads, is now matching internal Shallenburger campaign polls. The poll uses computers, rather than people, to make the calls, a polling method Shallenburger has questioned.
"We've said all along that the numbers are closing," Murray said.
Campaign spokesmen said the poll wouldn't affect today's final day of campaigning.
Shallenburger will make appearances in Wichita, Dodge City, Garden City and Liberal. Sebelius is campaigning in Topeka.
HOW THE POLL WAS DONE
The SurveyUSA poll was conducted Thursday, Friday and Saturday and is based on automated telephone interviews with 704 people who described themselves as likely voters.
It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Data from the 2000 census was used to ensure a balanced sample of voters. The larger the number of people polled, the more accurate the poll results will be.
The margin of error is larger for responses of subgroups, such as those based on gender and age.
SurveyUSA has consistently had Sebelius up by 15-20 points until this poll. Even if one doesn't believe SurveyUSA has sound methodology, this seems to confirm the other recent polling showing a tightening in this race.
If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!
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