Posted on 11/04/2002 4:39:48 AM PST by publius1
Edited on 05/26/2004 5:10:13 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
Just sent a private reply to somebody regarding that for fear of getting skewered, but what the heck, let me get skewered...folks...ZOGBY IS A GOOD POLLSTER. Which is why people pay a lot of money to get him to poll for them. Just because he's not giving you the numbers you want doesn't make him wrong or a whore for the Democrats. If anything, it would make him a "whore for the Republicans", because it would encourage more Pubs to get out and vote to counter his "foregone conclusion".
Of course, he can always screw up his track record this year around. :-)
--KL
You a gambling man? I'll bet you wouldn't have the same chance. ;-) (But only 50% of the time! heh)
In Colorado, Republican Sen. Wayne Allard leads Democrat Tom Strickland 47%-45%.
In South Dakota, GOP congressman John Thune leads Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson 48%-45%.
In New Hampshire, Republican Rep. John Sununu leads Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen 46%-45%.
In Arkansas, Democrat Mark Pryor leads Republican Sen. Tim Hutchinson 51%-43%.
The state polls of 600 or more likely voters Wednesday-Saturday had error margins of +/- 4 points.
It bears mentioning at this point that perhaps that...um..."not leaked at all" (read: leaked like a mofo) scandal involving him employing illegal aliens may tilt the race back towards Hutchinson (reminds me a lot of when the Dems dropped the DUI incident on Bush right before the election -- although how the Bush camp could have been so dumb to think that no one would ever dig that up...is beyond me...and fodder for another debate...)
Drinking your own bathwater, eh Toe-Sucker?
Yep, he did blow that one. But when he starts predicting a shift in a number of key races - nearly all toward the Dems - I start to worry. I believe his model uses a voter intensity adjustment, and he seems to have a good record of predicting turnout/intensity.
Do a search for "Zogby Bush Gore" and take a look at the threads from early November 2000. Everyone was ridiculing Zogby for his prediction of...46-46. Oops.
Yep. We made that mistake back in 2000. As I suggested in my previous post, do a FR search for "Zogby Bush Gore" and read some of the early November 2000 threads. Everyone was gleefully proclaiming Zogby irrelevant because he predicted a dead even race.
According to my highly accurate, scientifically based, coin flip analysis, I predict:
S.D - Republican
N.H. - Democrat
CO - Republican.
Let's see how this compares to Zogby
http://www.politicalpredictions.org/elections.htm
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And here's what Salon had to say about Dick Morris' predictions back in 2000:
"... Morris was wrong all last spring, summer and fall when he confidently declared Hillary would never enter the race for Senate. And now, over the last three weeks, he's been spectacularly wrong in predicting Giuliani's political future. The only thing to be said in his defense is that he's consistent.
Morris, of course, is President Clinton's former advisor, the triangulation-loving political guru who was tossed overboard in 1996 after a tabloid revealed Morris' affair with a prostitute. Once dubbed by Time magazine as a "gleeful genius" and "the most influential private citizen in America," Morris now fills his time dashing off a weekly New York Post column used almost exclusively to try to win small bouts of revenge against the Clinton clan.
Oh sure, from time to time Morris casts his political gaze nationally, as he did last year in cautioning readers, "It would be a serious blunder to count out Liddy Dole ... With her sterling record at the Red Cross, Elizabeth Dole could well be the first woman president." But since then, he's mostly dedicated himself to writing off Hillary's Senate chances as nonexistent.
Here's a typical 1999 dispatch, one in an endless collection of botched forecasts. Morris writes gleefully:
The fact she is planning to rent, not buy, a home here and her recent flip-flops on issues involving Israel aren't helping her either. She just looks more tawdry with each maneuver. Will she be able to reverse field and start moving up? Nope. No way she will do anything but lose votes even faster. Hillary is sinking fast. The bottom line: She won't run.
Of course, Hillary, a proud New York homeowner, now leads or is tied with Giuliani in most of the major statewide polls. (So much for Morris' supposed mastery of polling data.) And in a neat trick, Morris often doubled not only as an anti-Hillary columnist for the Post, but as an on-the-record source, too. Appearing in the pages last year as "a longtime consultant to the Clintons," Morris, who once riffed on talk radio that Hillary was a lesbian, told a Post news reporter, "I think she is going to look at these [poll] numbers, understand they aren't moving, and pull out. The first lady is on the ropes right now."
Fun stuff, huh?
But you know what? I don't think we should take Morris seriously, he just likes being contrarian. This time around, I don't think I've even heard him say he's running his own polls. In 2000 he always bragged about his focus groups, his findings. I think he's just talking outhisbutt now...and he does provide comic relief on FOX.
Believe nothing this man says about election polls.
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