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Georgia Senate race tightens [Cleland leads 49-44]
Atlanta Journal-Constitution ^ | 11/1/02 | Jim Tharpe

Posted on 11/01/2002 4:38:09 PM PST by BlackRazor

Georgia Senate race tightens

Cleland holds slim lead

By JIM THARPE

Atlanta Journal-Constitution Staff Writer

The high-profile U.S. Senate race between Max Cleland and Saxby Chambliss has tightened during the past month, with Cleland still holding a slim lead, a new poll shows.

Cleland, the Democratic incumbent, leads Republican challenger Chambliss 49 percent to 44 percent, compared with a 51-42 percent advantage the senator had a month earlier. Results included those who said they were leaning toward a candidate.

"It looks like a very close race to the very end, and the Republicans can sense a possible upset," said Emory political scientist Merle Black, a consultant for the poll. "That's why the president is coming back to Georgia this weekend."

The race tightens even further when respondents who said they are "certain to vote" are considered. Among that group, Cleland leads Chambliss by a 48-45 margin, a statistical dead heat within the poll's 3 percentage point margin of error.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution/WSB-TV poll survey of 800 Georgians who say they are certain or probable to vote was conducted Oct. 25-29. The poll found 7 percent of voters still undecided. One percent said they would vote for someone other than Chambliss or Cleland, a nod to Libertarian candidate Claude "Sandy" Thomas.

Cleland campaign officials said the poll results are not surprising, pointing out that when Cleland first ran for the Senate in 1996 he won by less than 1 percent, or about 30,000 votes.

"We've always known this would be a tough, close race, but ultimately voters will agree than Sen. Cleland is the best candidate for families," said Cleland spokesman Jamal Simmons.

Chambliss officials said the poll shows their campaign has the momentum needed for victory. They predicted President Bush's visits to Cobb County and Savannah on Saturday, three days before the election, will push Chambliss into the lead. The poll indicates Cleland has improved his standing in metro Atlanta, but Chambliss has eaten into Cleland's lead in other metro areas around the state.

"The poll numbers show that Saxby continues to gain, and on Nov. 5 Georgia will have a new senator," said Chambliss' spokeswoman Michelle Hitt.

Bush and national Republicans have targeted the race as part of the GOP's effort to retake the Senate, where Democrats now rule by a single vote. They contend Cleland's voting record is too liberal for Georgia, and Bush has already made two official campaign stops in Georgia for Chambliss. To counter those charges, conservative Democratic U.S. Sen. Zell Miller has aggressively waded into the fray for Cleland, warning "outsiders" to stay out of the race.

Brian Johnson, 43, said he agrees with the president and will vote for Chambliss.

"What I don't like about Max Cleland is he's too liberal," said the Watkinsville real estate investor and builder who describes himself as an independent. Johnson said he was especially troubled by Cleland's votes against Bush's version of the homeland security bill.

But Cobb County resident Charles Young, 57, said he thinks Cleland, a triple amputee Vietnam veteran, is a "middle-of-the-road moderate" and the senator will get his vote.

"Here is a man, despite tremendous adversity, who has brought himself up through the state Legislature, Veterans Affairs, secretary of state and U.S. Senate," said Young, who described himself as a Democrat.

In the campaign's home stretch, both candidates will be courting voters like 50-year-old Rebecca Ward, a Banks County high school teacher who considers herself an independent and is undecided in the race.

"To tell you the truth, I'm waiting to see what the papers say in the last few days," she said.

In the end, Black said, the race boils down to simple math. Essentially, Chambliss has gained momentum, but must attract more of the white voters to win. Cleland has the overwhelming support of African-Americans -- 79 percent to 13 percent for Chambliss -- and 38 percent of white support. But Chambliss must carry a substantial majority of the white vote to win. The poll indicates Chambliss has about 56 percent of the white vote. But he still needs more, Black said.

"He still needs over 60 percent of the white vote -- probably more like 63 percent if he is going to win," Black said.

Chambliss held a five-point advantage with white female voters in the September poll, but has increased that lead to 16 points with a television ad campaign directed at stay-at-home moms.

"We've done a lot to get Saxby's message out to that group," Hitt said. She said the campaign has also enlisted Chambliss' retired schoolteacher wife, Julianne, to meet with educators and parents. "We're taking out the message to them personally," Hitt said.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Georgia
KEYWORDS: chambliss; cleland; georgia; senate

1 posted on 11/01/2002 4:38:09 PM PST by BlackRazor
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To: conservative_2001; Coop; rightwingbob; DeaconBenjamin; Congressman Billybob; Vis Numar; mwl1; ...
Poll Ping!

If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!

2 posted on 11/01/2002 4:39:04 PM PST by BlackRazor
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To: BlackRazor
A bit disppointing, insofar as this poll shows little movement from the Mason Dixon poll from 2 weeks ago showing Chambliss trailing by 6. I thought this race might be Johnson-Thune or Allard-Strickland close at this point, given all the recent talk about this race tightening into a dead heat. But all Chambliss has done is go from 6 down to 5 down -- a statisitcal hiccup.
3 posted on 11/01/2002 4:48:23 PM PST by Ed_in_LA
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To: Ed_in_LA
Perhaps the President will rally the troops for Saxby. The gig is turnout, turnout and asking Indep. to vote for a new senator who will not vote against the Homeland Security Bill and the court choices of the President.
4 posted on 11/01/2002 4:52:32 PM PST by phillyfanatic
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To: BlackRazor
Hmmm. 48-45 among most likely voters. Seven percent undecided with a possible 2-1 break for the challenger and you're within a point or so. With bad weather currently forecast for most of Georgia for Tuesday.... this could be winnable.

I guess I have one more race to watch Tuesday night.

5 posted on 11/01/2002 4:55:37 PM PST by IMRight
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To: Ed_in_LA
Chambliss has this race won. A poll generally will use a certain turnout model-- they know how many people generally vote who live in Atlanta, how many who live in Savannah, etc, and when they poll they will sample in a manner that gets people proportionally.

Cleland may be getting 79% of the black vote. But after Cynthia McKinney's defeat in the primary, there will be some problems for the Democrats getting the vote out in her district. They'll carry that district, but without the same turnout as has occurred in the past. The turnout model for the polls would not have any way to estimate this, and almost certainly haven't accounted for it.

Chambliss will win Georgia.

6 posted on 11/01/2002 4:56:02 PM PST by Dales
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To: Torie; Free the USA; deport; paul544
@@@@@@@@@@@@@_____________________@@@@@@@@@@@@
7 posted on 11/01/2002 4:59:44 PM PST by KQQL
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To: BlackRazor; Torie; paul544
African-American Turnout will determine who will win this race !

Cleland, the Democratic incumbent, leads Republican challenger Chambliss 49 percent to 44 percent, compared with a 51-42 percent advantage the senator had a month earlier. Results included those who said they were leaning toward a candidate
The race tightens even further when respondents who said they are "certain to vote" are considered. Among that group, Cleland leads Chambliss by a 48-45 margin, a statistical dead heat

8 posted on 11/01/2002 5:07:32 PM PST by KQQL
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To: IMRight; BlackRazor
Oops. Forgot about the Libertarian. Still makes it a tight race.
9 posted on 11/01/2002 5:23:27 PM PST by IMRight
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To: phillyfanatic
I despise Max Cleland who is nothing but a lieing socialist. However, I want a senator that will vote against the presidents homeland security bill. (Why dont we just call it state security so that everyone will recognise a department of homeland security for what it is, the SS.)
10 posted on 11/01/2002 5:43:18 PM PST by doryfunk
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To: KQQL
The poll sucks. It is a big disappointment. I was looking for a two point spread, not five.
11 posted on 11/01/2002 5:55:20 PM PST by Torie
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To: Torie
Well..............Zogby will do a poll here..............too,
so I guess we will see...................
If Saxby gets approx 62% of the white vote and African American turn out is low............then maybe he can pull an upset
12 posted on 11/01/2002 6:00:36 PM PST by KQQL
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To: KQQL
When is Zogby due out with his final polls?

I don't sense any momentum, other then maybe MN. What 'bout you?

13 posted on 11/01/2002 6:53:12 PM PST by paul544
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To: paul544
Sunday on meet the press
14 posted on 11/01/2002 6:58:07 PM PST by KQQL
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To: Dales
I also believe there's another debate scheduled and according to reports, Chambliss acquitted himself extremely well in the last debate. A good debate showing, coupled with a Bush bounce, and Chambliss may very well prevail. This, possibly along with LA, is the sleeper in this race.
15 posted on 11/01/2002 8:24:38 PM PST by randita
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To: IMRight
The libertarian will cost Chambliss the seat.
16 posted on 11/01/2002 9:15:06 PM PST by Deport Billary
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