Latest poll: Governor's race going to the wire [RI]

A television station's poll earlier this week has the race for Rhode Island governor in a statistical dead heat.

PROVIDENCE -- As the days dwindle in the Rhode Island governor's race, Republican Don Carcieri and Democrat Myrth York are locked in a statistical tie, according to a WPRI/Channel 12 public-opinion survey releassed last night.

The poll of 401 voters who said they were likely to vote in Tuesday's election showed Carcieri with 43 percent, York with 40 percent and 16 percent undecided. (The numbers do not add to 100 because of rounding.)

The survey was done between Oct. 26 and 29 -- before the candidates' final televised debate Wednesday evening on WJAR/Channel 10.

It has an error margin of plus or minus 5 percent. That means York could be as high as 45 percent or as low as 35 percent. Carcieri could be as high as 48 percent or as low as 38 percent.

What the survey shows is that the comfortable lead York had after her September primary victory has vanished and the momentum has shifted to Carcieri, said pollster Joseph Fleming, who supervised the Channel 12 survey.

"The trend is Carcieri's way," Fleming said. "Now we are down to a tight race where the outcome depends on who gets their voters out."

At Carcieri headquarters, campaign manager Ken McKay exulted over the poll results.

"The results they're showing are a huge turn in momentum that is frankly difficult or impossible to stop, and the campaign is very excited about it," said McKay.

But at York for Governor headquarters, press secretary Ray Sullivan said the debate sent a surge of energy through her campaign and rallied Democratic forces around her.

"I would imagine that this race is a statistical dead heat, and we knew it was going to be close," Sullivan said. "Going into the home stretch, we are extremely confident, excited and energized. Democratic representatives all over the state, and the Democrats in the congressional delegation are rallying around Myrth."

York leads among the young but Carcieri has moved ahead with older voters. Voters 18 to 39 went for York, 47 percent to 36 percent, with 15 percent undecided. Among voters 40 to 59, the race is a dead heat, with 43 percent for Carcieri, 42 percent for York and 15 percent undecided.

Carcieri leads among voters aged 60 and above, 45 percent to 35 percent, with 19 percent undecided.

There is a slight gender gap in the results; York runs better among women voters and Carcieri does better among men. Women support York, 44 percent to 40 percent, with 15 percent undecided. Men support Carcieri, 45 percent to 36 percent, with 18 percent undecided.

A poll done by Fleming shortly after the Sept. 10 primaries showed York at 49 percent, Carcieri at 35 percent and 16 percent undecided. That survey carried an error margin of 5 percent.

A Brown University public opinion survey done between Oct. 19 and 21 gave York a 7-point lead. In that poll supervised by Brown Prof. Darrell West, York had 41 percent, Carcieri was at 34 percent and 25 percent were undecided.

Both candidates yesterday continued their vigorous campaigns, meeting voters and reinforcing their themes.

Yesterday, York flanked herself with three Democratic leaders -- U.S. Sen. Jack Reed, U.S. Rep. James R. Langevin and Lt. Gov. Charles J. Fogarty -- along with state AFL-CIO President Frank Montanaro and sign-waving union members as she emphasized her promise to fight for a higher minimum wage in the state.

"We're here to stand up and stand together for Rhode Island's working families, and the hard-working people of this state," York declared.

Rhode Island's minimum wage is currently $6.15 per hour, $1 more per hour than the federal rate -- a rate that has not changed since September 2000. York would like to raise Rhode Island's wage to between $6.70 and $6.75 an hour, on par with Massachusetts and Connecticut.

"Don Carcieri, the former corporate CEO, opposes increasing the minimum wage, says it's really not an issue," York said, standing in front of a temporary staffing agency on Federal Hill. "Well, for the people struggling to survive on the minimum wage, it's a big issue."

York declared that the difference between a Republican governor and a Democratic one is the difference "between a governor who will fight you and a governor who will fight for you."

York suggested both yesterday and at Wednesday night's debate that over 40,000 Rhode Islanders would benefit from the minimum-wage increase; her campaign handout cited a 1998 statistic from the Washington-based Economic Policy Institute, which found 35,740 workers were earning minimum wage at that time. An analyst at the institute said the figure was roughly the same for last year, although his figure included people earning up to $7.15 an hour.

The federal Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that last year in Rhode Island roughly 18,000 people earned $6.14 or less an hour, and another 14,000 were paid between $6.15 and $6.64 an hour.

Carcieri spent yesterday touring manufacturing businesses in Cumberland, Pawtucket and Portsmouth. Today, his campaign is set to get a boost from an appearance at Roger Williams Park by Christine Todd Whitman, head of the federal Environmental Protection Agency.

When informed of York's latest criticism on the minimum wage, Carcieri said, in an interview, "So what else is new."

The minimum wage, Carcieri said, is not designed to be a living wage for the support of families.

"I've said that it's more important that we educate our children and train them for the work force so they can get good jobs," Carcieri said.

Rhode Island's economy is not providing a sufficient number of well-paying jobs, Carcieri said, and that is a bigger problem than raising the minimum wage.

At the the debate, Carcieri said he does not want to raise the minimum wage because, "I don't think it accomplishes what we need to accomplish."

"No one can live on the minimum wage," he said. "What we've got to do is to get people into the work force with the skills, the job skills, the background, and we've got to provide the job opportunities so that nobody's worrying about the minimum wage, what they are [doing] is moving up the scale and providing for the families."

Carcieri said he would focus on education as the solution: "We're leaving kids behind, particularly in the urban centers, and that's the first thing we've got to do."

Last night I got a call from the York campaign. They urged me to vote for Myrthless, the Commie.
I thoroughly enjoyed telling them that if they had kidnapped my babies and threatened to kill them and me, I still wouldn't vote for Myrthless, the commie.

Actually, my babies are grown up and will go to the polls tuesday to vote straight republican.

I was undecided over my dem state rep, who has a B+ NRA rating, versus an unknown pubbie, but my wife, the former liberal, insisted we go for the clean sweep.

If the commie, Myrthless, loses, I'd say she is finished.

Just a little reminder here to Rhode Island and the rest of the country:

Remember this when you vote...
Q: Which party took Social Security from an independent fund and put it in the general fund so that Congress could spend it?
A: It was Lyndon Johnson and the Democratic-controlled House and Senate.
Q: Which party put a tax on Social Security?
A: The Democratic party.
Q: Which party increased the tax on Social Security?
A: The Democratic Party with Al Gore casting the deciding vote.
Q Which party decided to give your Social Security money to immigrants?
A: That's right, the Democratic Party. Immigrants that move into this country at 65 get SSI and have never paid a dime into the system. This is costing us millions of dollars.

Then, after doing all this, the Democrats turn around and tell you the Republicans want to take your Social Security away from you. The worst part about it is that people forget who did what!
What can you do?.... Circulate this to remind people so they'll remember it during the November vote.

Notice this piece is written in rat-speak. In rat-speak, when the rat is ahead by even one point, he's ahead and; there is no mention of margin of error. When a Republican is ahead within the margin, it's a deadheat ( code language for rat bosses to get out their shovels to dig up dead rats to drag to the polls) If the Republican is ahead even two points passed the margin, "the Democrat is slightly behind" ( 6 points "slightly ahead?" If the rat has a lead of the margin plus 1 point, he has a "commanding lead and is pulling away"
If a Republican can win in RI, we can win anywhere, state wide.

One more point, I missed the first time: Notice that the so called "gender gap" is just 4 points. This may very well do due to the fact that there are fewer Blacks in RI. Gender gaps really are racial gaps. When Black women are combed out of the numbers, Republicans do well with women. Of course the rat press will never point this out.

York will lose. Dems will not get a pick-up for governor from RI.

I watched Carcieri last nite on a local PBS show w/ local media--York refused to come. (word is that she didn't want to be asked about where her money comes from--an issue in the past few weeks) It was a roundatable w/ the Journal's top political columnist, Charlie Bakst, plus a TV commentator, and one of the local talk show hosts. It was amazing to watch. The relaxed confidence coming from Carcieri and the post-election attitude of all of them was stunning. Carceiri was engaging, relaxed, talking about the state budget and what needs to be done, but he talked as if he were the governor-elect instead of a candidate. Bakst, too, treated him as if his win was a sure thing. Bakst pushed Carcieri about his internal polls and he said he was up by 10.

Then this morning on one of the local talk shows, again there was this sense of the race being all over. Carcieri called in and was chatty and relaxed. He was asked about his coming win, but of course he deferred. York was also called but she hadn't returned calls. The conversation easily moved to all the mistakes York made. Buddy Cianci, who's the best when it comes to RI politics, said one of York's big mistakes was going so negative on Carcieri w/ over-the-top accusations. He said this bad advice from York's consultant was a disaster.

Wait till you hear this. York's consultant is Mandy Grunwald.

There is a way Don Carcieri can move higher in the polls and lock this thing up, all he needs do is go to Franklin, Mass and get a few of the Scaccia's, Nasuiti's and Rondo's to call family and friends in the democrat strong holds of Cranston and Providence.

Oh, thank goodness! I was afraid you were going to tell Carcieri to call Howard Stern. :-D

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