Posted on 10/30/2002 5:01:59 AM PST by BlackRazor
Sebelius, Kline hold leads in Kansas races, poll finds
By STEVE KRASKE,
The Kansas City Star
With less than a week to go before Tuesday's election, Democrat Kathleen Sebelius holds a nine-point lead over Republican Tim Shallenburger in the race for Kansas governor, a new poll shows.
The survey, conducted for The Kansas City Star by the newspaper's marketing research department, showed Sebelius leading Shallenburger 46 percent to 37 percent, with 15 percent undecided.
Two third-party contenders, Libertarian Dennis Hawver and the Reform Party's Ted Pettibone, each received 1 percent.
In the race for attorney general, Republican Phill Kline was leading Democrat Chris Biggs 45 percent to 33 percent, with 22 percent still undecided. Kline is a former state lawmaker from Shawnee; Biggs is the Geary County attorney.
The telephone poll of 602 likely voters statewide was conducted in conjunction with the Market Research Institute from Oct. 23 through Tuesday. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Governor race
A spokeswoman for Sebelius said she was not surprised by the findings. The aide, Nicole Corcoran-Basso, said she had seen several polls in recent days, and The Star's poll showed the race closer than any of them.
"We expected things to tighten as we got closer to the election," she said.
A poll conducted for the Harris News Service released Sunday showed Sebelius leading Shallenburger by 53 percent to 34 percent, with 12 percent undecided.
Corcoran-Basso said the results of The Star's poll would not change Sebelius' approach to the election.
"We're continuing to work hard for the next six days to earn the numbers that really matter, and those are the numbers we'll see on Nov. 5," she said.
Sebelius is on a statewide tour that brought her to the National Guard Armory in Kansas City, Kan., on Tuesday night. Today she was scheduled to visit Liberal, Garden City and McPherson.
Shallenburger campaign manager Alan Cobb said the poll results were "consistent with where we believe the race is."
The GOP campaign will stick to its game plan, Cobb said.
"We'll do what we're doing," he said. "The gap was 22 (points) at the end of August. We've been whittling at it since then. Our plan...is to be at single digits within a week, and that's where we are."
The GOP candidate hopes to get a boost today when actor Charlton Heston, president of the National Rifle Association, comes to Kansas to stump for him.
Heston will appear at an NRA member get-out-the-vote rally in Wichita at 6:30 p.m. at the Radisson Broadview Hotel.
Also today, Shallenburger is to appear at a GOP rally in downtown Kansas City with former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani. Also in attendance will be Adam Taff, the 3rd District congressional candidate, and Jim Talent, the U.S. Senate candidate in Missouri.
Shallenburger plans to launch a new TV ad today that focuses on what Cobb called Sebelius' "undefendable votes" on anti-crime legislation while she was a member of the Kansas House.
Sebelius has released her own list of what she called Shallenburger's soft-on-crime votes while he was a House member from Baxter Springs.
The Star's poll showed somewhat mixed results on education spending. Asked whether they support higher spending on public education, Kansans by 61 percent to 28 percent said yes.
Asked, though, whether they favored a tax increase to support public schools, the percentage of respondents who said no outweighed those answering yes, 47 percent to 45 percent.
Support for education was stronger in the 3rd Congressional District, which includes Johnson and Wyandotte counties and parts of Douglas County. In a telephone poll of 602 likely voters in the 3rd District, 70 percent said they favored increased spending on education, and 58 percent said they favored higher taxes to fund spending on schools.
Sebelius, the two-term state insurance commissioner, has focused much of her campaign on what she calls her "unwavering" support of public education. She has said that Kansans have no appetite for a tax increase.
Shallenburger, the state treasurer and former House speaker, also touts his support of public education. He has said his chief priority is holding the line on taxes.
The poll showed Sebelius gaining a big advantage among respondents who identified themselves as political moderates. Among those voters, Sebelius led Shallenburger by 57 percent to 23 percent.
Sebelius was backed by nearly 78 percent of respondents who identified themselves as Democrats. She won backing from 23 percent of Republican respondents.
Shallenburger was supported by 65 percent of Republicans and 8.5 percent of the poll's Democratic respondents.
One potential voter who took part in the poll was Republican Marie Riley of Winchester in Jefferson County. Riley said she'll be going with Sebelius.
Riley, who is retired, said she is voting against Shallenburger more than voting for Sebelius.
"Shallenburger turned me off in his primary campaign with `no new taxes,' because anyone knows to get out of the situation we're in some type of taxes will have to be raised," she said.
"In his campaign he hasn't done anything to show me how he's planning to do anything with the budget deficit," she added. "I just feel he hasn't come up with any ideas. All he can do is come up with negative campaigning."
Another Kansan who said he was tired of nasty TV ads was 68-year-old Gerald Spears of Linn Valley, about 26 miles south of Johnson County.
"I'm kind of sick of all these negative ads against other people," he said. "They aren't helping their cause a bit with me when they start attacking the other guys. I don't think it's good campaigning or good politics."
Spears, who describes himself as a conservative independent, said he hasn't made up his mind yet but is leaning toward voting for Sebelius.
Julie Halling, a Kansas City, Kan., Republican, plans to vote for Shallenburger for his conservative values.
"I tend to vote Republican down the line no matter what," said Halling, 39. "I believe in low taxes, less spending and strong defense. I think he'll do a better job at trying to keep my taxes lower."
Kline versus Biggs
In the attorney general's race, the Kline campaign hailed the poll's findings.
"This poll certainly indicates Kansans are responding to Phill's message that Kansas needs to strengthen penalties for violent criminals and that Kansans see a need for an attorney general with the breadth of experience that Phill Kline has," said Kline spokesman Whitney Watson.
Watson said the Kline campaign did not have much interest in polls but is not taking his lead for granted. He is traveling statewide to meet with voters and press his anti-crime message.
Biggs said he was hoping to make inroads with the 22 percent of voters who said they were undecided.
"His numbers have been holding pretty steady...and ours have been creeping," Biggs said. "With all the money he's spent, the name identification he has in a Republican state, you'd expect his numbers to be much higher."
Celeste Noland, 51, of Lenexa, said she liked Kline's message.
"I just think he has an overall understanding (of the issues) and he's been around longer and can protect the interests of the citizens," said Noland, who has done volunteer work with Kline and described herself as a conservative Republican.
Like Kline, Biggs has called for tougher penalties for criminals. He has tried to focus attention on his 20-year career as a lawyer, most of which has been spent as Geary County's top prosecutor.
That's why Rick Gulley, 48, of Olathe plans to vote for Biggs, he said.
"Biggs actually has experience as a prosecuting attorney, so he's got some legal background, which makes him much more qualified for the job," said Gulley, a registered Republican who considers himself an independent.
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