Last week, on Fox News´ Hannity and Colmes Show, Dick Morris, formerly Bill Clinton´s political guru, predicted, "I think there is a Democratic trend on …as of today, if the election is held right now, the Democrats take both houses."
And why did he predict that? Because, he said, that´s what the polls show.
If that sounds familiar, that´s because it IS familiar. Although Morris tries to convince us that he´s now really a Republican sympathizer, we are hearing from him pretty much the same line we were hearing four years ago, when he was Bill Clinton´s chief spin doctor. I wrote a few days before the 1998 mid-term Congressional election:"In spite of our past experience with polling data, Americans seem to have a fatal fascination with polls - especially polls that predict how we are going to vote. It's sort of like the Christmas edition of a women's magazine, which tell us each December, in bold letters ‘The Best Christmas Edition Ever!´ even though the stories inside are warmed over from the year before.
"Today, we are told by Gallup Polls out of every liberal Princeton University, we ‘voters nationwide are tilting towards Democratic Congressional candidates over Republican candidates, by a 49% to 45% margin. This represents a movement towards the Democrats in the final days of the campaign. A Gallup poll conducted the previous weekend, October 23-25, showed Republicans ahead by a two point margin, although Democrats have led in earlier polls this fall.´ (Note: This is almost exactly what Morris said on Hannity and Colmes.)
"Results will depend largely on turn-out. Will large numbers of voters rush to the rescue of Bill Clinton as they did for Harry Truman in 1948, when all the polls called Thomas Dewey the winner in headlines printed the night of the election, only to discover the next day that Harry Truman had won? Will little old ladies walk for miles down from the hills of Tennessee to vote, as they did for Harry Truman, because "the president needs me?
"Somehow, I don't think so".
In the 1996 election, the only pollster who got close to being right was John Zogby. CBS/NY Times, ABC News, Harris, USA Today and the CNN/Gallup polls all said Clinton would get 51 to 53% of the votes against Dole and Perot. He actually got 49%. However, two years later in 1998, Zogby predicted three Senate races, in New York, Illinois and Missouri. He was wrong in two out of the three races. In seven House races that he called, most of which showed wide margins between projected winners and losers, Zogby missed two. The poll in one race showed the losing candidate 17.5 points ahead and the other race showed the losing candidate 6.1 points ahead of the ultimate winners.
Of course, invariably when the election is as close as it is now, we hear another statement that is supposed to show how wise the pollsters are: "Who wins depends on who gets out the most voters on election day." Of course, one does not need to be a pollster to predict that the candidates who get the most voters to the polls usually win elections.
And, it appears, President George W. Bush fully understands that all politics are local. He is making brief stops in many places, especially where there are races in the U.S. Senate, with a very simple, short message about the current Democrat controlled Senate: "They've been playing politics with my judges. I put good, honorable, honest people on there whose job isn't to try to rewrite law, but to strictly interpret the United States Constitution. They've got a lousy record in the United States Senate.
"No, they don't like those kind of judges up there, so they play politics with them, petty politics. For the sake of a sound judiciary, we need to change the leadership in the United States Senate."
Then he urges the audience to not only get out and vote, but to get their friends and neighbors out to vote. In past years Democrats and their friends in the media have managed to convince a lot of tired Republicans that the race was over before the voters went to the polls. I really don´t think discouragement is happening this year, some media commentators notwithstanding.
In this election, however, there´s something new going on I haven´t heard anyone talk about. And, it could have a surprising impact. This is the first election in many, many years when I´ve seen a lot of satire, sarcasm and downright ridicule aimed at candidates. And most of it seems aimed at Democrats. Some of it is so funny even an ardent Democrat would have a hard time complaining about it being "negative" attacks. For example:
Last week in Florida, Gulf 1´s resident satirist, Dr. J. Sidney Wallace, wrote: "While Bush and the Republicans are promoting an agenda, written by and for special interests and the wealthy with gross earnings over $30,000 each year the Democrats and labor unions are working on ways to help working family through tough economic times. The leadership of the Democrat Party firmly believes that by simply continuing to stall the Bush-Republican ideas until the 2004 election will be enough to bring a massive victory. We are looking forward and downward and being able to point out everything that is not working and blame it on the president´s inability to do anything."
In California, the Simon for Governor campaign has a TV ad out that begins with picture of California and France, a soft female voice singing soothingly in French and a note that, just two years ago, September 2000, after 8 years of Republican Governor Pete Wilson California was the 5th largest economy in the world, with a budget surplus of $8 billion. Then, Gray Davis was elected governor. He grew the California government by 37%, ignored water, energy and transportation problems as California´s economy sank to the 6th largest in the world, behind (quel horreur!) France, and now has a budget DEFICIT of $27 billion.
The ad ends with a picture of Gray Davis being moved over to the picture of France and the words: "Send Gray Davis to run France. SAVE CALIFORNIA – Vote for Bill Simon." Historically, once a political party is the target of satire and ridicule, they soon find themselves history.
To comment on this article or express your opinion directly to the author, you are invited to e-mail Mary at mmostert@bannerofliberty.com .
