Posted on 10/29/2002 5:22:21 AM PST by Theodore R.
Holloway leads in 5th District poll Bill Sumrall / Staff Reporter Posted on October 29, 2002 Running strong in his home parish, Clyde Holloway of Forest Hill leads the pack of candidates seeking the 5th Congressional District seat, a new poll shows.
Holloway, a Republican, appears to be headed for a runoff, according to the Mason-Dixon poll, conducted Oct. 16-18. The Town Talk co-sponsored the poll.
The poll shows Holloway is supported by 28 percent of probable voters.
State Rep. Rodney Alexander, D-Quitman, finished second in the polling, with 21 percent of the probable vote. Third was state Sen. Robert Barham, R-Oak Ridge, with 17 percent, followed by Lee Fletcher, R-Monroe, with 14 percent.
Other candidates are Sam Houston Melton Jr., D-Winnfield, who polled at 3 percent; Vinson Mouser, a Libertarian from Bunkie, at 1 percent; and Jack Wright, R-Monroe, who didn't register in the poll.
Sixteen percent of the probable voters are still undecided.
Holloway is optimistic but cautious.
"We're confident that we're going to make the runoff, but we can't let up," Holloway said. "We have to continue to work."
The 5th District seat is open, as the incumbent, John Cooksey, is running for U.S. Senate. Seven candidates are in the running for the 5th District seat on Nov. 5. A runoff, which is likely, would be held Dec. 7.
As one might expect, Holloway, a former congressman, is getting strong support from the southern part of the 5th District in the polling. The other top three candidates are from the northern part of the district. The 5th District includes much of central and northeast Louisiana.
In Rapides Parish, Holloway has 51 percent voter support, the poll shows. Alexander has 20 percent in Rapides, followed by Fletcher with 8 percent and Barham with 5 percent.
In Ouachita Parish, the most populous parish in the northern part of the district, the vote is split fairly evenly, the poll shows. Fletcher is leading with 21 percent in Ouachita, followed by Barham with 20 percent, Alexander with 18 percent and Holloway with 14 percent.
Alexander believes he'll make the runoff.
"I'm happy with where we are, especially after being pounded on for the past month with attack ads," said Alexander, referring to negative ads about him that were bought by the Republican National Congressional Committee.
Barham believes three candidates have a chance to grab the two spots in a runoff, including himself, Alexander and Holloway.
"This continues to be a wide open race," said Barham, who disputed the numbers because the poll was taken a week and a half ago. "Our polls show that we're peaking at the right time. They don't resemble this poll."
Fletcher said the poll numbers are old and don't reflect reality.
Fletcher said the poll was taken "before we make our final media buy (for campaign advertising) that has been very effective. In fact, (a Republican National Congressional Committee) poll shows us in a dead heat with Clyde and Rodney."
Lea Anne McBride, a spokesman for the RNCC, wouldn't confirm Fletcher's claim. She said no poll numbers commissioned by the RNCC have been made public.
Alexander appears to be the overwhelming choice of black voters polled by Mason-Dixon.
In the poll, Alexander was favored by 46 percent of the black voters, followed by Melton with 9 percent, Holloway with 6 percent, Fletcher with 5 percent and Barham with 1 percent.
Holloway leads among white voters with 36 percent, followed by Barham at 23 percent, Fletcher with 18 percent and Alexander with 12 percent.
"A runoff between the top two finishers (in the poll) appears probable" since no candidate approaches the 50 percent level of support, said J. Bradford Coker, director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.
"Holloway has considerable strength in the southern end of the district, while the other leading candidates run stronger in the northern parishes," Coker noted.
"Holloway is the best-known candidate in the race and is supported by 31 percent of Republicans, 26 percent of Democrats and 32 percent of independents," said Coker. "This geographic base and crossover appeal probably ensures him of a runoff spot," he added.
Coker suggested Alexander "could have the inside track for the second spot in the runoff."
"With Barham and Fletcher dividing Republican and northern parish votes, Alexander has the large bloc of Democratic voters almost all to himself," the pollster said.
"About half of 'undecided' voters are African-American, and Alexander clearly has the advantage here," Coker said.
"He currently has the backing of 45 percent of black voters, while each of the Republicans only have support in single-digits," Coker added.
A 5th Congressional District candidates forum is set for 7 p.m. Wednesday. It will televised live by KALB in Alexandria and KNOE in Monroe. The forum is co-sponsored by The Town Talk, the Monroe New-Star and the two television stations.
With a large black vote, Democrat Alexander may well lead in the Nov. 5 balloting, with one of the three Republicans, probably Holloway, forcing a December runoff. This may be the last of the 435 House seats to be settled. Holloway represented much of this district between 1987 and 1993.
If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!
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